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Mapatasy

Will 2017 be the year of the 'Great Housing Crash'? - Article in the Independent.

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More articles like this please... keep 'em coming!

"Like a Ponzi scheme or pyramid selling, the British housing market has defied economic reality and flown ever high on the current of credit and confidence. It will not survive the perfect storm of rising interest rates, stagnant wages, rising unemployment, higher taxation, and lower demand from migration and all the rest of it. So, ask yourself this question: what do you expect the next movement in house prices to be? Up or down?"

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1 hour ago, Mapatasy said:

More articles like this please... keep 'em coming!

"Like a Ponzi scheme or pyramid selling, the British housing market has defied economic reality and flown ever high on the current of credit and confidence. It will not survive the perfect storm of rising interest rates, stagnant wages, rising unemployment, higher taxation, and lower demand from migration and all the rest of it. So, ask yourself this question: what do you expect the next movement in house prices to be? Up or down?"

Is this a quote from the article? Wow!

There is a problem with newspapers - they get most of their income from property companies via advertising, so it is not in their interests to p1ss them off.

However there is a problem for the Ponzi scheme - at least half the journalists writing these articles are themselves priced out of the whole system, so at some point one of them is going to get p1ssed off enough to write about it.

It has always amazed me how young trendy local journalists can write cr@p about how cool renting is because of flexibility etc, when I know full well on their salaries they'll never be able to buy a home of their own. Yet they prop it up because they're caught up in the same brainwashing everyone else is, and they think they're talking to "experts". Sooner or later something has to give, unless you've got a dictatorship it's impossible to keep this lie going forever.

Link to the article - http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/housing-crash-brexit-buy-to-let-2017-will-be-the-year-a7448036.html

Edited by wsn03

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3 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Is this a quote from the article? Wow!

There is a problem with newspapers - they get most of their income from property companies via advertising, so it is not in their interests to p1ss them off.

However there is a problem for the Ponzi scheme - at least half the journalists writing these articles are themselves priced out of the whole system, so at some point one of them is going to get p1ssed off enough to write about it.

It has always amazed me how young trendy local journalists can write cr@p about how cool renting is because of flexibility etc, when I know full well on their salaries they'll never be able to buy a home of their own. Yet they prop it up because they're caught up in the same brainwashing everyone else is, and they think they're talking to "experts". Sooner or later something has to give, unless you've got a dictatorship it's impossible to keep this lie going forever.

Link to the article - http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/housing-crash-brexit-buy-to-let-2017-will-be-the-year-a7448036.html

What's quite strange is that this article was written by the same journalist who wrote this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/newsflash-young-people-owning-your-own-home-isnt-a-human-right-leave-your-entitlement-at-the-door-a7167961.html

Not at all saying he's changed his view, but his attitude does seem to have changed. I had a bit of an email conversation with him in response to the article I have just linked and suggested he come onto this forum to get a different perspective. Maybe he's lurking here?!

 

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when the consensus of the crowd seems to be housing is only going up you have to think that maybe it's actually heading into going the opposite direction.  Albeit the crowd here probably consider themselves outliers.  But from my perspective it's the main source of my housing/ economy info... In which case here's expecting the drops!

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Bunch of unconnected assertions lacking metrics to back 'em up.

For instance, author argues wage pressures will lead to rising interest rates at same time as stagnating wages will lead to collapsing house prices. 

Reads like wish list rather than rational analysis

 

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1 hour ago, Little Frank said:

Bunch of unconnected assertions lacking metrics to back 'em up.

For instance, author argues wage pressures will lead to rising interest rates at same time as stagnating wages will lead to collapsing house prices. 

Reads like wish list rather than rational analysis

 

He clearly distinguishes between real and nominal wage growth.

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1 hour ago, Little Frank said:

Bunch of unconnected assertions lacking metrics to back 'em up.

For instance, author argues wage pressures will lead to rising interest rates at same time as stagnating wages will lead to collapsing house prices. 

Reads like wish list rather than rational analysis

 

It`s the fact that the "wish list" is in the MSM that is important though, people didn`t think it through when they were persuaded to "Buy Buy Buy" and they won`t think it through any more when they are panicked into "Sell Sell Sell". IMO.

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We all know that its cheap credit that drives prices up and not supply and demand yet most of the media are happy to sit back and pretend that the housing crisis could be solved by building more. I've yet to see even one article moaning about lack of choice and not price being the problem. 

Building more houses as a solution is an easy way attract advertising from EAs, builders and etc whilst not worrying the readership with reality. 

If just a few mainstream journalists had the gut they'd accept the short-term animosity to tell the truth now. In a few years they reap their rewards for their honesty by being fated as the first to report the truth. 

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2 hours ago, thewig said:

If history teaches us anything its that the majority are always proven wrong eventually.

And:

 

1) It's not different this time

2) X, Y and X locations are not different

3) People did see it coming

4) Arithmetic is fundamental

5) You can loose on bricks and mortar

6) The bankers/rich/establishment are not helping us

7) There is no deemocracy

8) You shouldnt buy before you miss out

9) Investments can go down, and will

10) Like TVs when they were 10x incomes, it's best to rent them when prices are insanely high

 

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2 hours ago, neuvilla said:

What's quite strange is that this article was written by the same journalist who wrote this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/newsflash-young-people-owning-your-own-home-isnt-a-human-right-leave-your-entitlement-at-the-door-a7167961.html

Not at all saying he's changed his view, but his attitude does seem to have changed. I had a bit of an email conversation with him in response to the article I have just linked and suggested he come onto this forum to get a different perspective. Maybe he's lurking here?!

 

These marketers (not journalists) are paid by VIs to promote ideas and plant seeds in people's heads.

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I really can't face reading the article; it's in the guardian ffs (sorry, edit, the independent even, just as bad) Me thinks however, it might be a sign that we are being softened up.  It cannot continue to increase forever surely 

Edited by One-percent

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13 minutes ago, One-percent said:

I really can't face reading the article; it's in the guardian ffs (sorry, edit, the independent even, just as bad) Me thinks however, it might be a sign that we are being softened up.  It cannot continue to increase forever surely 

Wow, so I am not the only one. This year it's really smacked me in the face just how awful (and creepily dodgy) both the Guardian and Independent are!

As for whether prices are going up or down - I've been driven completely doolally insane by the last decade or so of obsessing (offline) about house prices and I've turned to numerology for the answer. This year is a Universal Year 9, the END of a Numerology cycle, next year is a Universal Year 1. So clearly, YES, 2017 is going to be the year of the crash.

It's quite logical really!

;):rolleyes:

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22 minutes ago, One-percent said:

I really can't face reading the article; it's in the guardian ffs (sorry, edit, the independent even, just as bad) Me thinks however, it might be a sign that we are being softened up.  It cannot continue to increase forever surely 

I posted a thread a couple of months ago where I said it looked like TPTB were lining up all the ducks ready for a crash.

 

Nothing has changed my mind since then

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4 hours ago, neuvilla said:

What's quite strange is that this article was written by the same journalist who wrote this:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/newsflash-young-people-owning-your-own-home-isnt-a-human-right-leave-your-entitlement-at-the-door-a7167961.html

Not at all saying he's changed his view, but his attitude does seem to have changed. I had a bit of an email conversation with him in response to the article I have just linked and suggested he come onto this forum to get a different perspective. Maybe he's lurking here?!

 

Saying the government shouldn't help those who can't afford to buy a house, a bail out those who can't afford their mortgage, is fully compatible with saying house prices will fall.

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2 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

These marketers (not journalists) are paid by VIs told by the government under instruction of the rich and powerful  to promote ideas and plant seeds in people's heads.

Corrected with my opionion

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