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Fertility Rates Keep Dropping, And It's Going To Hit The Economy Hard

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http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/fertility-rates-keep-dropping-and-its-going-hit-economy-hard

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Total fertility rates, which can be defined as the average number of children born to a woman who survives her reproductive years (aged 15-49), have decreased globally by about half since 1960. This has drastically shaped today’s global economy, but as Visual Capitalist's Caitlin Cheadle explains, a continued decline could have much more severe long-term consequences.

If the world has too many elderly dependents and not enough workers, the burden on economic growth will be difficult to overcome.

Global Fertility Rates

Fertility Rates Start to Decline

First, it’s important to address some of the reasons for these falling fertility rates.

In developed nations the introduction of commercially available birth control has played a large role, but this also coincided with several major societal shifts. Changing religious values, the emancipation of women and their increasing participation in the workforce, and higher costs of childcare and education have all factored into declining fertility rates.

It's a pity they haven't overlapped GDP growth over that as I'm certain it would be similar.

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1 minute ago, interestrateripoff said:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-11-29/fertility-rates-keep-dropping-and-its-going-hit-economy-hard

It's a pity they haven't overlapped GDP growth over that as I'm certain it would be similar.

Or house prices. Perhaps those of childbearing age are too busy trying to keep a roof over their heads to worry about bringing up the next generation 

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Not reproducing now is too selfish.

We need to reproduce so that we have enough workers to look after the boomers (and stop them having to use their own money, or break into their unearned HPI and other wealth). Once the boomers have all died off peacefully in good care a large purpose in our lives is over and we can then consider suicide to avoid problems of over population.

Remember baby boomers are f***ing important, the most important generation in history, let that article be a reminder.

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It would have been interesting to see the similar charts for bankers and their pals and suchlike - an all in it together sort of thing.

Edited by billybong

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2 hours ago, billybong said:

It would have been interesting to see the similar charts for bankers and their pals and suchlike - an all in it together sort of thing.

Yer 1980's would have seen a big spurt for their ilk

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Maybe we are bumping up to the limits of the world capacity ?

People can sense it - traffic jams, pollution, global warming, world debt, high youth unemployment, no money for pensions, deforestation, wildlife extinction, queues for public services, more violent natural events earthquakes, famines, drought, even queues for the graveyard. Etc.

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1 hour ago, 200p said:

Maybe we are bumping up to the limits of the world capacity ?

People can sense it - traffic jams, pollution, global warming, world debt, high youth unemployment, no money for pensions, deforestation, wildlife extinction, queues for public services, more violent natural events earthquakes, famines, drought, even queues for the graveyard. Etc.

No wonder fewer are being born in certain places......that is why people move about to help balance the world  economy...can always import what is required in a particular place, ready willing, trained, educated and able. ;)

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12 hours ago, interestrateripoff said:

boxplotGDP.PNG

MovingAverGDP.PNG

Is that UK chart before or after the OBR's recent guidance that changes to imputed rent knocked 0.3% per annum off UK nominal GDP each year for the last 15...?

 

Doesn't affect 'real' GDP growth apparently as that's determined by the choice of deflator, which I'm sure is absolutely without error.

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43 minutes ago, Nickos said:

When i was younger i planned to have kids but given the cost of living these days, it just isn't financially viable as horrid as that may sound. You never know, it may change.

Also, as with other comments, would you want a child to be brought up in the current world?

Agree with this post.

Costs are way too great and the world is such a joke that I wouldn't want to bring someone into it.

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I recommend people read 'The Next 100 Years:

 

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Next-100-Years-George-Friedman/dp/0749007435

Its a fun book which details some of the geopolitical challenges of the next century. The main one will be the declining birth rate, which is already affecting us. Immigration they think will be going the opposite way, where countries will be crying out for more people from abroad just to fill the spaces that are left by those dying. Its just the sad truth of the way things are going.

That our economy seems to be based on the simple idea that there will be an increasing number of consumers in the future, and thats where growth is coming from is going to hit us very hard when we are hitting a minus rate of growth. 

Personally I've put kids off for as long as possible, there are upsides but the lack of freedom and the financial drain of them is quite offputting. I imagine a lot of people feel the same way.

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3 minutes ago, Pieman Pieface said:



Personally I've put kids off for as long as possible, there are upsides but the lack of freedom and the financial drain of them is quite offputting. I imagine a lot of people feel the same way.

Totally with you, independent, free etc. Now have a 1 year old, another on the way, and a step son who is probably going to grow up to be one of my best mates.

I took the notion that I never saw anyone regret having kids, but I know plenty who regretted not having them. I've never been happier...I'm the last person I thought would ever say that.

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13 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Totally with you, independent, free etc. Now have a 1 year old, another on the way, and a step son who is probably going to grow up to be one of my best mates.

I took the notion that I never saw anyone regret having kids, but I know plenty who regretted not having them. I've never been happier...I'm the last person I thought would ever say that.

3 kids best decision ever just literally lovely well behaved kind and fun kids.

One simple issue where I live all the family houses are full of old singles and couples and all the lovely small houses close to the shops are full of families.

 

Edited by Fromage Frais

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Looking at that graph it's still around replacement level, and fewer people would be a blessing anyway (as long as it doesn't happen too rapidly). If the system relies on continual growth then that's the problem that needs fixing, not that the ultimately unsupportable growth has stopped growing.

It always makes me roll my eyes in despair every time I see an article that says the pyramid scheme is threatened so we need to find more layers on the bottom. If the economy is going to be hit then so be it, that's the reality of the situation that we must grow up and accept.

Edited by Riedquat

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The population only exploded due to the discovery of oil which enabled the production of chemical fertilisers and mass production of food.

When oil runs out the population will crash and the planet survive....but with far less variety of animals and plants because at the moment we're shitting in our nest.

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16 hours ago, Arpeggio said:

Not reproducing now is too selfish.

We need to reproduce so that we have enough workers to look after the boomers (and stop them having to use their own money, or break into their unearned HPI and other wealth). Once the boomers have all died off peacefully in good care a large purpose in our lives is over and we can then consider suicide to avoid problems of over population.

Remember baby boomers are f***ing important, the most important generation in history, let that article be a reminder.

Indeed!

And no mention of the boomer's propensity to lord the desire to blow up half the world, and *then* they worry there's not enough population to look after them....hmmm.

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8 hours ago, Notdundespairing said:

Indeed!

And no mention of the boomer's propensity to lord the desire to blow up half the world, and *then* they worry there's not enough population to look after them....hmmm.

Like bringing up children. Spoil a person in life and they get shi***y and self-centred.

Anyway.......the plague, it took out 2/3rds of the population and had economic benefits. Just read the conclusion at the bottom of this link: https://eh.net/encyclopedia/the-economic-impact-of-the-black-death/ it's totally radical, and had other benefits beyond the immediately obvious:

"In trade and manufacturing, the relative ease of success during the high Middle Ages gave way to greater competition, which rewarded better business practices and leaner, meaner, and more efficient concerns."

Whereas now, we just aren't overpopulating in the first place it would seem.

In Japan whoever is calling it a "crisis" for whatever reason, http://theweek.com/articles/453219/everything-need-know-about-japans-population-crisis You can't mess with mother nature. Any biologist knows that most species don't multiply when resources are low, and do when resources are in abundance (whether that be asexual or sexual beings). As we can see the overall cost of living in Japan is higher than the UK: https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/country_result.jsp?country=Japan Of course the affordability of living is very much the equivalent of the availability of resources, obviously.

You have to wonder who writes these "population panic" articles and why. They could try a bit harder and give some other BS lie for the reason, rather than that it's for the sake of Baby Boomers with the assumption it will garner sympathy.

Men tend to "fire live rounds" well into old age, you know what I mean. Women can't have kids after a certain age. This really sucks a bag of eggs for women. When current young men are older and more established, emotionally and financially, and can have kids with a women who is still young enough to have them, what then for the older women? It's a frozen egg frenzy f*** up.

Edited by Arpeggio

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1 hour ago, Arpeggio said:

When current young men are older and more established, emotionally and financially, and can have kids with a women who is still young enough to have them, what then for the older women? It's a frozen egg frenzy f*** up.

Eggzactly!

Every day that passes a mans 'value' goes up while every day that passes a women's goes down. SJW'er your way out of that!

Feeling old and bitter in your 30's? You don't know pi$$ yet. :lol: Hey, they that sowed the wind reap the whirlwind.

This is a game that's only half way through. You made the rules, suck it up buttercup!

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It used to be that if you didn't have kids, you probably died alone with nobody to look after you in an old age.  

Not really a problem anymore in a highly connected cheap travel / almost free internet modern world.  And connection between generations is often much less than it used to be - kids move to university, then to a location of their job etc.  

So, why bother?  It's not like there is a shortage of people.

 

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1 hour ago, zugzwang said:

Except that the last one would be good news, not doomsday. It would only be doomsday if the population started falling at a serious rate, and at that point people would probably be more inclined to have children anyway.

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People always say to me am I not missing out from not passing my genes on ?

My simple response is I have siblings who are already doing it. 

I live the easy life. Job done :)

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I wonder if the whole IVF thing is stoking up a lot of problems for future generations.  

It's tragic if someone who wants kids cant have them but on the evolutionary side of things, perhaps there's a reason that gene pool should end.

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