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DavidGold

Forecasting

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These are some basic scenarios I've been working on. Companies like Shell do not try to predict houses will rise x.y% in the future, but complile a number of internally consistent scenarios, any one of which may occur. Again these are very much work in progress and comments appreciated. I'm thinking of keeping them fairly simple with only the most important factors included.

Word 97 format: can be read using Wordpad

Scenarios_v1.doc

Scenarios_v1.doc

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hmmm.

what we've seen over the last 10 years...GLOBALLY,is a slackening of money supply.

even in japan where deflation has occurred the central banks have in reality been paying people to borrow money....some canny souls have done just that and borrowed lots at 0% from BOJ,to pile into higher yielding assets like US bonds over the last few years....it's still happening,that's why the fed aren't too concerned about the inverted yield curve.

...the last ones to catch on have done this with bonds and property without much thought,and they will get stung.

global tightening of money supply is much more worrying,it would threaten the world economy if done too severely....resulting in war,lots of it in order to secure resources....oh hold on,that's what we're getting!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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