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workhou

Trump and Brexit: Economist sums it up

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I've been watching some of his lectures and talks online for a while - think he might gain more notoriety in the near future as his prognosis on Trumpism seems spot on, particularly to the 'soft-left' on an updated 'its the (globalised) economy, stupid' - every time you play to the social liberal values angle (as worthy as it is), you are taking your eye off whats really going on.

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Yes I have watched a few of his videos now, I like his style, and what he has to say.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/11/18/mark_blyth_global_trumpism_and_the_revolt_against_the_creditor_class.html

I do think the impact of economics has been a big factor in the Brexit vote. The working class not being listened to and forgotten on economic, cultural, and social grounds combined.

If only the rich weren't quite so greedy!

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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57 minutes ago, workhou said:

Scottish economists sums it up..Nothing new to guys on here but interesting how he points out the weaknesses of continued EU membership and the decline of wages to E.European levels

Didn't he say the Euro, not the EU? And yes, they are different.

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This is the full interview without the annoying American on the front giving spin to it. I like this Blyth guy, I agree with everything he says. He does also say that he's very much for Europe , just not the Euro. Fair enough.

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1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

Didn't he say the Euro, not the EU? And yes, they are different.

Yes the Euro.

if we explore the Euro we have a multi tired EU with fiscal but non-political integration. It's a mess. You either go all in and have a United States of Europe, or you go back to the good old EEC days.

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I like Mark Blyth and think his analysis is spot on - he is steeped in the history of political economy and understands very well the current issues. Next year will be interesting to see if his 'global trumpism' also takes effect in European elections. 

I agree with him that the euro and eurozone as currently constructed is not sustainable and I don't see much appetite for greater political and fiscal integration - in fact we see the opposite, greater nationalism, protectionism and retrenchment.

I'd recommend his other lectures found on Youtube, particularly "Austerity, the history of a dangerous idea"

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Quote

Didn't he say the Euro, not the EU? And yes, they are different

When the Euro implodes the EU will cease to exist- so it's a distiction without a meaningfull difference.

What I find odd is that you seem to accept Blyth's analysis of the Euro as a disaster waiting to happen but not the inevitable impact this will have on the EU. Do you really think that the EU could survive if it's common currency area blew up?

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2 hours ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Yes the Euro.

if we explore the Euro we have a multi tired EU with fiscal but non-political integration. It's a mess. You either go all in and have a United States of Europe, or you go back to the good old EEC days.

Sorry Dave, if we are going to keep things simple for you we can't have people like Norway and Switzerland on the fringes having access to the single market.

Mind you, I'll tell you what is more of a mess than have a few tiers in the EU... having 28 different tiers. With a range of levels of political integration, border integration & trade integration.

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3 minutes ago, long time lurking said:

Yep nailed it 4min>

Yep, been posted numerous times on here over the last week.  He nails it so well I've watched it more than once. He deserves a slot on our beloved Beeb, but think his analysis is too near the truth for the Beeb to touch him.  Sadly. 

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26 minutes ago, One-percent said:

Yep, been posted numerous times on here over the last week.  He nails it so well I've watched it more than once. He deserves a slot on our beloved Beeb, but think his analysis is too near the truth for the Beeb to touch him.  Sadly. 

he was on BBC This Week Last Thursday night. I watched it - it was very good. Not sure if it was the same sketch - or something similar (liberals repressing free speech they don't agree with).

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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2 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

he was on BBC This Week Last Thursday night. I watched it - it was very good. Not sure if it was the same sketch - or something similar (liberals repressing free speech they don't agree with).

Ah, thanks.  Good to know he is getting an airing to reach a wider audience. I'm not as convinced by his other stuff and feel he needs to widen his repertoire, but that trump sketch is inspired  

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1 minute ago, One-percent said:

Ah, thanks.  Good to know he is getting an airing to reach a wider audience. I'm not as convinced by his other stuff and feel he needs to widen his repertoire, but that trump sketch is inspired  

I though the same. He WAS convinced with his arguments for why the left sucks (and angry with it) but the rest of his videos are him searching for a lefty joke in the darkness of the left controlling everything anyway. So what can he rail against. 

 

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11 minutes ago, XswampyX said:

I though the same. He WAS convinced with his arguments for why the left sucks (and angry with it) but the rest of his videos are him searching for a lefty joke in the darkness of the left controlling everything anyway. So what can he rail against. 

 

Yeah, but what he doesn't get is that it isn't a left issue. Those that purport to be on both the left and the right have worked to shut down free speech.  Quite successfully I would argue.  Nevertheless, he gives a sound analysis    

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4 minutes ago, GrizzlyDave said:

Try and watch the interview with Andrew Neil. He comes across as someone still very fresh to it all, learning his trade, finding his voice. I love it :-)

What Jonathan pie with Andrew Neil?  Just off to google...

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8 minutes ago, One-percent said:

What Jonathan pie with Andrew Neil?  Just off to google...

Yep - he was a guest (the actor that plays him) and did a sketch similar to the above; and then a sofa interview. Last Thursday's edition of This week.

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3 hours ago, Futuroid said:

Sorry Dave, if we are going to keep things simple for you we can't have people like Norway and Switzerland on the fringes having access to the single market.

Mind you, I'll tell you what is more of a mess than have a few tiers in the EU... having 28 different tiers. With a range of levels of political integration, border integration & trade integration.

It makes you wonder how those countries in the rest of the world manage?

Don't forget that the opt-out provisions within the EU make it far from a homogenous 28 member club :

Quote

In general, the law of the European Union is valid in all of the twenty-eight European Union member states. However, occasionally member states negotiate certain opt-outs from legislation or treaties of the European Union, meaning they do not have to participate in certain policy areas. Currently, four states have such opt-outs: Denmark and United Kingdom (four opt-outs each), Ireland (two opt-outs) and Poland (one opt-out).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opt-outs_in_the_European_Union

Quote

Germany notifies opt-out auction platform

...

Germany, Poland and the UK decided to appoint their own auction platform. All other Member States decided to make use of a common auction platform for which the tender will be launched soon.

http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2012032201_en.htm

 

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1 hour ago, One-percent said:

Ta. I did find it and will watch with interest.  Car sos new series on, so will get to it tomorrow  :lol:  out of interest, what's your take?

I think he is spot on, I am a liberal socialist , and believe in a fairer distribution of wealth. So Sanders was talking my language. Corbyn is a joke, no spine, nothing like Sanders, and the LibDems are now irrelevant. TM has some promise, she has balls; I respect that.

I see a lot of change and a lot of conflict in the UK, migration, erosion of jobs (zero hours, FTCs etc) workers rights are evaporating, contast it with the maternity rights which lets be honest are a killer for small businesses. It one big oxymoron of good intentions leading to bad results. I think that's the result of 20 years of PC EU UK socialist neoliberal vomit.

I am for change. Any change to rock the foundations. Trump Brexit Le Penn - I don't care.

I want to take people out from under their comfort blankets, and get working harder and smarter for it. I think the UK is lazy. It needs a slap and Brexit is a slap.

I don't like how big issues are taboo subjects (immigrants, benefits, tax) so I am rebelling against my traditional voting. I voted for batman in the GE and voted leave.

I am confused, and impossible to pigeon hole. I am trying to work out what I am. I know what I don't like. I don't like tax havens, or foreigners buying all our housing. I don't like social media and 'apps' that seem to have more value than gold. I don't like that our county has no plan. Not a Brexit plan, a plan full stop. There is no vision, no value in engineering, science, and medicine. A total lack of inspiration caused by a liberal media politico class who have not a clue about life in places like Crew, Hull, and Rotherham.

Damn right I want change, I want passion, vision, leadership, selflessness. I think about becoming an MP sometimes, just to rock the sh:t up a bit.

Edited by GrizzlyDave

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