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Your predictions for Wed 23rd Nov Autumn Statement

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Is it possible for the new cabinet to reverse/modify/waterdown Osborne changes for the BTL sector ?

What things will receive lip service but little/no action or even actions that will have the opposite effects ?

When will house prices make it into the CPI ?

Which areas of the UK public are due to lose the most ?  Which areas might gain ?

 

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Theresa May said "we are all builders now", my guess is this means taxpayer handouts for big developers.

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Income Tax threshold changes to be kept and even brought forward. (20 percent threshold increased to 50k)

Abandonment of Georgey's stupid budget balancing.

More investment in infrastructure. Stealth taxes on goods and services to rise; maybe a cheeky increase in VAT. Nothing on Brexit. Little on housing except for buzzwords and corp. developer handouts.

Oh, and the 118 crew watching it all unfold in their bunker; Downfall style, as S.24 implementation is hammered home.

 

 

 

Edited by Tapori

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9 minutes ago, Tapori said:

Income Tax threshold changes to be kept and even brought forward. (20 percent threshold increased to 50k)

Abandonment of Georgey's stupid budget balancing.

More investment in infrastructure. Stealth taxes on goods and services to rise; maybe a cheeky increase in VAT. Nothing on Brexit. Little on housing except for buzzwords and corp. developer handouts.

Oh, and the 118 crew watching it all unfold in their bunker; Downfall style, as S.24 implementation is hammered home.

 

 

 

that means 118 is full of open letters. 

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I think it will likely be the most over-hyped but ultimately nothing about anything statement imaginable.

With all the stress about Brexit, everyone seems to expecting big announcements - but looks increasingly like Hammond is going to keep it as dull and reliable as possible.

So I think there will be no changes to S24 (sorry P118), no changes to Stamp Duty, some additional stealth taxes but no changes to VAT, and then the now usual changes to the Income Tax bands to benefit the Hard Working Families and the (newly christened) JAMs.

On infrastructure, I think there will be much touting of releasing new funds for investing in the countries infrastructure but these will be largely reheated or limited change works - and so nothing too spectacular like billions of new spending or the national investment bank idea that is doing the rounds.

Overall I think this will be a continuity budget to bridge us from the old dying world of Osborne's austerity to the new Brexit world - however the budget for Brexit will be next April and so this one will be limited to tinkering and bold words rather than anything more significant.  I do however think there will be money or policy moves for Developers to help build (or at least be seen to help) and get more supply on the go, but then Chancellors say this every year whilst output from the developers actually decreases, so hard to take too seriously, but it will be enough to be seen to be doing something about the housing crisis. (whilst in reality, the death of BTL and potentially raising interest rates will be doing the real work)

So that is my prediction, but all my predictions this year have been wrong, so who knows.

(heck, I even thought Ed Balls would be have been sent home in week 1!  And to lesser import, thought that Brexit business would go the other way..)

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Tax allowance increase brought forward.Fuel duty freeze.He might increase the NI allowance level.They would love to merge NI and Tax to hit unearned income and pensioners etc so they might start on getting the allowances to merge.As soon as they do, merge the rates together.

More BTL pain for small landlords to help the big insurers into the market instead.

He is under a lot of pressure from the left to reverse cuts to Universal Credit.He might do something with the work allowance to deflect this.The handy thing with that is he could then keep the benefits freeze on tax credits etc while inflation goes up,plus the fact its highly likely very few families will ever be on UC.

He might do something with childcare as well.If he could bring in 16 hours for 1 year olds up,he could then change benefits later to demand you look for work etc when your child is one,due to the childcare available.

Its an interesting statement because it will show us their direction of travel.

 

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All spending reform has to be around tax credits; they just cost too much.

Bump up qualifying hours.

Drop down max age of kid to 16 rather than 18.

Set maximum claim years to 10.

 

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My prediction....the chancellor is the biggest property investor in the tory party ( IIRC )....

The party was funded by house builders....

The guvnor of the BoE refuses to raise IRs and prints money at the slightest sniff of cheaper housing....

Say no more,

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16 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

My prediction....the chancellor is the biggest property investor in the tory party ( IIRC )....

The party was funded by house builders....

The guvnor of the BoE refuses to raise IRs and prints money at the slightest sniff of cheaper housing....

Say no more,

It's a case of steady the ship, make sure we stay in the ZIRP / government mega borrowing zombie zone.

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My prediction:

A grey haired member of the establishment will stand up and talk for 1.5 hours.

After which his every word will be poured over by a fawning media who will report on his tiny fiddling with the tax and benefit systems as it there were as significant as the development of a new political system.

Shortly afterward, a number of top accounting and tax bods will discover ample new loopholes for their extremely wealthy clients to use.

12 months later the average UK worker will be marginally poorer. The 1% will be considerably richer. 

Remember kids - you read it here first!

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I find it very difficult to predict anything, aside from speculation around the media leaks.

There's no sign of clear guiding strategy for this cabinet, no stated ends around which to speculate the means. There have been quite a few measures taken to distance the new cabinet from the old one, I don't see any more token gestures being necessary. And aside from that, no reason to expect any significant changes.

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1 hour ago, Futuroid said:

My prediction:

A grey haired member of the establishment will stand up and talk for 1.5 hours.

After which his every word will be poured over by a fawning media who will report on his tiny fiddling with the tax and benefit systems as it there were as significant as the development of a new political system.

Shortly afterward, a number of top accounting and tax bods will discover ample new loopholes for their extremely wealthy clients to use.

12 months later the average UK worker will be marginally poorer. The 1% will be considerably richer. 

Remember kids - you read it here first!

Sounds about right

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From the BBC ...

I am also told that a new effort to kick-start the housing market will be a significant part of the Autumn Statement.

It will focus on encouraging local authorities to partner with smaller house builders to build social housing.

One idea under consideration is a government indemnity fund, with the government agreeing to underwrite (insure) billions of pounds of risk capital needed to support new house building.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38049833

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2 minutes ago, PaulParanoia said:

From the BBC ...

I am also told that a new effort to kick-start the housing market will be a significant part of the Autumn Statement.

It will focus on encouraging local authorities to partner with smaller house builders to build social housing.

One idea under consideration is a government indemnity fund, with the government agreeing to underwrite (insure) billions of pounds of risk capital needed to support new house building.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38049833

This has been discussed a while ago and a budget agreed for it. 

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There have been hints that the Government's white paper on housing will be released alongside the Autumn Statement.

We've been promised by Sajid Javid that the paper will outline 'radical' measures to boost housing supply, but I'm not holding my breath.

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17 minutes ago, SarahBell said:

This has been discussed a while ago and a budget agreed for it. 

I've lost count of similar schemes? Remember "Right to Build"? I went along to meetings for it 3 years ago. Not a single house built in South Cambs which was the lead area and had staff dedicated to it. They basically asked the landowners - "Can we have some land please?" - and they said -"Yes, at full market price" and everyone signed up to the scheme said "so what is the point of this scheme if all we can do is buy land we could have bought anyway?" and South Cambs said "Errr...we don't really know, sorry. It was a rushed scheme which central gov dumped on us"

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1 minute ago, Timak said:

I've lost count of similar schemes? Remember "Right to Build"? I went along to meetings for it 3 years ago. Not a single house built in South Cambs which was the lead area and had staff dedicated to it. They basically asked the landowners - "Can we have some land please?" - and they said -"Yes, at full market price" and everyone signed up to the scheme said "so what is the point of this scheme if all we can do is buy land we could have bought anyway?" and South Cambs said "Errr...we don't really know, sorry. It was a rushed scheme which central gov dumped on us"

Sleep easy tonight - some expensive government consultants will profited handsomely from the scheme.

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