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We need to help young people save - Radio 4 news hour

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They had some Executive blah blah expert from Taylor Woodrow or Taylor Wimpey (can't remember) on Radio 4 this morning, in to talk about what we can do to avert the housing crisis.

He said:

1. It will take 20 years to fix (so get f***ked anyone in their 30s who can't afford a house then, obviously)

2. Building more houses won't solve the problem

3. We need to help young people to save, that is how we solve the crisis

4. We need some sort of special task force or whatever (Quango?!?!) to work on this

So there you have it. Prices are obviously ok, we just need to find a way to get people to afford them - this is a challenge because the banks aren't being so generous with lending.

What is interesting is that we've gone from no one ever mentioning it, to it all being a crisis in a very short space of time - so we now recognise there is a problem. The elephant in the room is still being ignored, but if everyone pretends they care, and finds a way to help, they can hopefully keep stoking the fire a little longer.

Can someone from HPC (and there are some very clever people on here) ask for its "expert voice" to be heard on Radio 4? I'm getting very bored of these frickin idiots spreading all of this ridiculous nonsense - the main problem being that people actually listen to and believe it.

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Saving rates 1% if your lucky 

Pay rise inflation 2% again if your lucky 

House price inflation where I am 13% 

Saving is not going to help until prices at the very least stop increasing more than wages and preferably reverse and start to fall

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7 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

I assume it was on the back of the Redfern Review published today...

http://www.redfernreview.org/

Labour backed report by Taylor Wimpey Chief Exec Pete Redfern.

Lack of supply not to blame, we just need bigger mortgages, according to headline but not read it yet.

Bang on, that all rings right...yes he's the "expert" without any form of vested interest who clearly knows what he's talking about. So get saving youngsters! I had to, it was tough, took me a whole 2 months to save for my deposit - even had to take out a loan for it!! We need to help you to save, someone needs to find 700k to buy my house of me when I cash it in, and I already know it won't be my kids (cause they'll be living with me unless they win the lottery), so get saving!!! Thanks.

 

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Actually credit where it is due, someone on Radio 4 yesterday was talking about the fall in prices as a good thing, 5 - 6pm. Damn I don't remember who, but they were in some sort of seat of authority I think. I'm sure they mentioned market forces, and a whole bunch of other obvious things. I can remember where I was when I heard it, but not who said it. I was about to enter the M6 Toll, so that means it must have been about 545pm. Anyone who listens to play it again should try and find it, Radio 4 yesterday, really valid points etc......it was the first time I've ever heard a reasonable voice discussing this besides the lovely Meryn Somerset Webb.

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Has he not seen whats been happening to risk/inflation assets the last 6 months and now whats happening to deflation assets like T Bills and Gilts?.Once this speeds up the young will be helped onto the housing ladder and it wont take 20 years.It will take 2/3 years as houses in bubble areas crash as interest rates rise.

The cycle is doing what every other cycle has done,monetary expansion policy is ending and fiscal (inflation policy) is taking over.Interest rates will follow the curve up,just as they have always done.Carnage will have no choice as inflation shoots through 4% and keeps rising and the FED tighten a few times.In fact UK house hunters need to look to Janet Yellen to start the ball rolling.

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1 minute ago, durhamborn said:

Has he not seen whats been happening to risk/inflation assets the last 6 months and now whats happening to deflation assets like T Bills and Gilts?.Once this speeds up the young will be helped onto the housing ladder and it wont take 20 years.It will take 2/3 years as houses in bubble areas crash as interest rates rise.

The cycle is doing what every other cycle has done,monetary expansion policy is ending and fiscal (inflation policy) is taking over.Interest rates will follow the curve up,just as they have always done.Carnage will have no choice as inflation shoots through 4% and keeps rising and the FED tighten a few times.In fact UK house hunters need to look to Janet Yellen to start the ball rolling.

Now that's reminded me of all the talk of collapse of bonds making borrowing really expensive to the USA, which will pass it on to the rest of the world - the era of cheap money being over. 5 - 6pm news Radio 4 yesterday really is worth listening to on play it again, first time I've ever heard anything relevant to the crisis we're in today. Sadly I was very very tired, and not paying very much attention. Think I'll listen to it again tonight.

This morning of course undid anything credible, and I really did understand why you guys call the BBC 'state media'.

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14 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Now that's reminded me of all the talk of collapse of bonds making borrowing really expensive to the USA, which will pass it on to the rest of the world - the era of cheap money being over. 5 - 6pm news Radio 4 yesterday really is worth listening to on play it again, first time I've ever heard anything relevant to the crisis we're in today. Sadly I was very very tired, and not paying very much attention. Think I'll listen to it again tonight.

This morning of course undid anything credible, and I really did understand why you guys call the BBC 'state media'.

PM seems to have a remarkable different editorial stance than the rest of the BBC.,

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Was on 5 Live breakfast this morning. Interviewer tried to lead him down the supply & demand path, but he said it was prices. So far, so good. Unfortunately he then proposed 'schemes & incentives to help FTB's on to the ladder. The usual drivel then followed.....

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7 minutes ago, John The Pessimist said:

Was on 5 Live breakfast this morning. Interviewer tried to lead him down the supply & demand path, but he said it was prices. So far, so good. Unfortunately he then proposed 'schemes & incentives to help FTB's on to the ladder. The usual drivel then followed.....

Well they can't say prices have to be lower as no one can force the housing market to be rational with lower prices. That will only come with time and it will take time as people will cling on for the price they want (rather than the price its worth) for years.

Heck I can show you houses that have been on the market for 3+ years because its worth £x and that's before the prices really start dropping.

The only time the market will really change is when interest rates rise and that is probably sooner than people think.

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41 minutes ago, wsn03 said:

Actually credit where it is due, someone on Radio 4 yesterday was talking about the fall in prices as a good thing, 5 - 6pm. Damn I don't remember who, but they were in some sort of seat of authority I think. I'm sure they mentioned market forces, and a whole bunch of other obvious things. I can remember where I was when I heard it, but not who said it. I was about to enter the M6 Toll, so that means it must have been about 545pm. Anyone who listens to play it again should try and find it, Radio 4 yesterday, really valid points etc......it was the first time I've ever heard a reasonable voice discussing this besides the lovely Meryn Somerset Webb.

It was Paul Lewis giving the Telegraph stamp duty on £1m+ homes campaign the kind of credit that it deserves. From memory it was on pretty much exactly when you thought too!

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42 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

Has he not seen whats been happening to risk/inflation assets the last 6 months and now whats happening to deflation assets like T Bills and Gilts?.Once this speeds up the young will be helped onto the housing ladder and it wont take 20 years.It will take 2/3 years as houses in bubble areas crash as interest rates rise.

The cycle is doing what every other cycle has done,monetary expansion policy is ending and fiscal (inflation policy) is taking over.Interest rates will follow the curve up,just as they have always done.Carnage will have no choice as inflation shoots through 4% and keeps rising and the FED tighten a few times.In fact UK house hunters need to look to Janet Yellen to start the ball rolling.

Carney will only increase rates if wages go up and keep going up - a wages/ price spiral. This is unlikely and they will ignore inflation, as they did in 2011 when it went to over 5%. Carney will only increase rates if he is forced to; it will never be a policy decision. The reason is obvious; the economy is a Ponzi and the fuel is debt; cut that off and it will tank - seriously.

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The Redfern Review states that one of the long term cross party objectives should be...

  • Common agreement that a set of readily deployable countercyclical tools should be in place before the onset of a downturn 

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23 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

The Redfern Review states that one of the long term cross party objectives should be...

  • Common agreement that a set of readily deployable countercyclical tools should be in place before the onset of a downturn 

Since the national debt is set to exceed £2 trillion by the end of this parliament the only way to achieve that objective would be via the printing press. Good luck convincing the markets with that, Mr Wimpey.

Edited by zugzwang

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49 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

It was Paul Lewis giving the Telegraph stamp duty on £1m+ homes campaign the kind of credit that it deserves. From memory it was on pretty much exactly when you thought too!

Ah thank you for that, I will listen again to it tonight. Must look him up

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1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

The Redfern Review states that one of the long term cross party objectives should be...

  • Common agreement that a set of readily deployable countercyclical tools should be in place before the onset of a downturn 

This is fairly typical of the worst of modern politics, where you have corporate influence seek to determine government spending in private interests. Rather than competing in a free, cyclical market these interests take government spending as one revenue stream among others, to be maximised over the short and long terms.

They aren't too big to fail, they know they're in a cyclical industry, and yet the media provides straight-faced coverage of their shameless attempts to use public money to place a floor under their bottom line. They don't command the slightest respect, neither as capitalists nor as members of a functioning democracy, and their report isn't worth coverage more than any other PR.

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Digging a little deeper, the theoretical basis of Redfern's report (provided by Oxford Economics) is a 'utility' maximisation study of the US housing market 1985-1990, an econometric paper on tenure choice written by Mervyn King in 1980, and paper published by the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics in 2002!

Miles out of date all of them.

Together with some arbitrary and unproven assumptions about the future performance of the economy these three are developed into a quasi-linear SEM model into which real world data are fed and from which statistical expectations are drawn. In essence, they start off with a conclusion and then conjure up a set of relationships to confirm it. Needless to say, the scientific usefulness of such an exercise is nil.

 

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I like that someone is seriously discussing this, but its just ******** though..

>> So there you have it. Prices are obviously ok, we just need to find a way to get people to afford them - this is a challenge because the banks aren't being so generous with lending.

The bank (or would pre-Brexit, might have changed now) offered to lend the missus and me well over £500k.. which is totally insane, we would be mad to borrow that level of money.. (decent jobs, decent income, no other assets what so ever to back it up)

I cannot get behind the idea that the solution is more lending and more debt to solve this.

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I can understand why nobody would no longer want to save.....two steps forward three step backwards.......no longer does work and/or savings work/pay......savings are only good to enable ever larger amounts of available debt....Debt is the new Wealth.......create the Polices, get the Behaviours.....;)

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What they actually mean is we need to take more money of young people to give to our mates in the city to play with, and maybe at some point in the future, that we can change at will, give them a bit back.

They can fuk right off.

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51 minutes ago, doomed said:

What they actually mean is we need to take more money of young people to give to our mates in the city to play with, and maybe at some point in the future, that we can change at will, give them a bit back.

They can fuk right off.

 

Yes. Next up more forced savings schemes - probably with the money being forcibly directed into government paper.

Edited by Errol

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6 hours ago, Nabby81 said:

Saving rates 1% if your lucky 

Pay rise inflation 2% again if your lucky 

House price inflation where I am 13% 

Saving is not going to help until prices at the very least stop increasing more than wages and preferably reverse and start to fall

Here's what normally happens...a MASSIVE F**KING CRASH.

It's not sustainable.

 

When you are seeing is not a market, it's a scam

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57 minutes ago, doomed said:

What they actually mean is we need to take more money of young people to give to our mates in the city to play with, and maybe at some point in the future, that we can change at will, give them a bit back.

They can fuk right off.

It's already started

 

https://www.gov.uk/workplace-pensions/about-workplace-pensions

 

The Spivery of London is eating teh country and telling us they are "helping us"

 

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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3 hours ago, satch said:

There are say, 25 million houses in UK and around 20 million workers. The average house earns more than the average worker. Even if the average worker could save ALL of their earnings it would not keep up with the earnings of the average house.

The only way forward is either a massive fall in prices or lower interest rates supported by more 'help' and more debt to keep prices rising. Now which one will appeal to Phil 'properdee portfolio' Hammond.

You never know, he may take a leaf out of Trump's book and not only introduce measures that do not suit his personal situation, but also waive his MP and Ministerial salaries. Or he may be told what to do.

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