Were fooked if it turns cold

[ChumpusRex]

STOR is not so much for "TV pickups" (which no longer really exist these days). STOR is the service which requires generation plant which is able to come online (or increase power) with less than 4 hours of warning and which is required to sustain that for 4 hours power without the need to stop. The main role of STOR is two fold: to handle the evening peak load which lasts 2-3 hours, or to restore the operating margin of the grid, if a large power plant shuts down in an emergency, and provide that margin until more efficient plant can be warmed up and brought online.

TV pickups would be covered by fast reserve (FR). FR is a much faster version of STOR. This service requires the provider to be able to deliver energy within 2 minutes of a request and sustain it for 15 minutes. 

National grid also have a series of automatic response services called mandatory frequency response, firm frequency response and enhanced frequency response. These services rely on power plants to automatically increase or decrease power in response to changes in grid frequency (these changes represent second-by-second imbalances in supply and demand). 

Dinorwig actually tender for all of these services (although I don't think they were a chosen supplier for EFR, which mainly went to battery storage units). They also operate in the wholesale forward and day-ahead market to arbitrage price differences between day and night.

[Gigantic Purple Slug]

Life on here wouldn't be the same without the annual we're going to die from lack of power thread.

I think it was Ruffles the Guinea Pig who used to have the run out of gas threads, yet despite the coldest December in 100 years in 2010 we didn't run out of gas.

The tldr summary is that although the contingency has reduced the ability to manage demand has improved hugely, plus the flexibility in the market is much greater. So for example we can now import LPG from the US, as well as from Qatar. This is in addition to the North Sea gas from Norway, plus our own. When you look at power, yes the French power generation may be lower, but you might find for example the Germans have an excess that they can sell to the French very cheaply, so the French can then export to us, even if their own demand is only just covered by their own production. In times of crisis industrial use would probably be moderated as other people have said. I think as someone else pointed out the big issue is not whether we have enough capacity, but whether we have the ability to pay for what we want.

[ChewingGrass]

Its 17:15 and its balls out for the Coal Plants (Fiddlers was online for the first time in months tonigt), Gas Tubines Balls out with Nuke the highest I've seen it at 8.38GW. Pumped, Hydro and Biomass are all flat out and the French interconnector is not running as they have no spare capacity. Wind is putting ot a pretty decent 5GW so if it was a clam cold evening we would in special measures.

[AThirdWay]

Oil-fired heating, wood burner stove/heater and 4x PV panels feeding into a 2000VA APC UPS. Maybe I should get me a TFH?

[ChumpusRex]

Some additional links if anyone is interested:

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/power-station/daily-statuses

Status of nuclear plants - most in tip-top condition. Heysham2 has one reactor offline for planned maintenance/licensing inspection, expected back online next week. Heysham 1 is at reduced power, 1 reactor has an irreparably damaged boiler and is limited to 87%, the other is at reduced power for "to manage fuel temperatures".

 

http://www.nordpoolspot.com/Market-data1/N2EX/Auction-prices1/UK/Daily/?view=table

Day auction wholesale electricity auction - gives an idea of current market volatility.

 

 

 

 

[Riedquat]

2 hours ago, AThirdWay said:

Oil-fired heating, wood burner stove/heater and 4x PV panels feeding into a 2000VA APC UPS. Maybe I should get me a TFH?

A wooly jumper at any rate.

[Kurt Barlow]

19 hours ago, dgul said:

That isn't what pumped storage is for.  It is used for very short term spikes in demand where there isn't the capacity or speed to react from the traditional sources.  If you used it up doing night/day load balancing then there wouldn't be capacity to easily cope during the spikes.

The biggest single risk to the grid is an unexpected drop out of a large generator or supply source. In the UK that is Sizewell B which is approximately 1.1GW and the French IC which is 2GW (when its working). Ideally there is sufficient spare generating capacity across PS, Hydro and spinning reserve to cope with that.

[Kurt Barlow]

There are several older CCGT power stations which are now mothballed but which can be brought back into service at short notice within a week. so as long as there is sufficient gas supply and gas storage the situation should be manageable.

Kings Lynn is a good example

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King's_Lynn_Power_Station

[canbuywontbuy]

17 hours ago, Gigantic Purple Slug said:

Life on here wouldn't be the same without the annual we're going to die from lack of power thread.

I think it was Ruffles the Guinea Pig who used to have the run out of gas threads, yet despite the coldest December in 100 years in 2010 we didn't run out of gas.

The tldr summary is that although the contingency has reduced the ability to manage demand has improved hugely, plus the flexibility in the market is much greater. So for example we can now import LPG from the US, as well as from Qatar. This is in addition to the North Sea gas from Norway, plus our own. When you look at power, yes the French power generation may be lower, but you might find for example the Germans have an excess that they can sell to the French very cheaply, so the French can then export to us, even if their own demand is only just covered by their own production. In times of crisis industrial use would probably be moderated as other people have said. I think as someone else pointed out the big issue is not whether we have enough capacity, but whether we have the ability to pay for what we want.

Just looking at ONS estimated figures, there are 2,160,000* more people living in the UK than there were in 2010.   These are the ONS estimations, and I'd be amazed if in reality the population wasn't more than the official estimation.  I wonder if the National Grid is growing commensurately with recent population growth?

*62.77M in 2010,  64.93M in 2016

[billybong]

With net migration averaging at about 300,000 a year that would account for about 6 x 300,000 = 1,800,000 of the extra 2,160,000.  There's births and deaths but they tend to take place within existing housing stock.  Then there's the other say 300,000 a year arriving that are balanced by about 300,000 leaving the country but those arriving don't always want to live where those leaving the country used to live. 

Some of those will be living in overcrowded conditions say 3 to a room instead of 1 to a room so no extra heating cost in those cases despite the extra numbers, they still only have to heat the one room.

So indeed there must be an increased demand on the National Grid (and that issue is related to the overstretched infrastructure debate) - it never gets discussed in the media though.  If they refer to possible blackouts etc it's usually attributed to things like peak oil etc.

[Kurt Barlow]

26 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Just looking at ONS estimated figures, there are 2,160,000* more people living in the UK than there were in 2010.   These are the ONS estimations, and I'd be amazed if in reality the population wasn't more than the official estimation.  I wonder if the National Grid is growing commensurately with recent population growth?

*62.77M in 2010,  64.93M in 2016

But they are all crammed into the same houses - all that body heat reduces heating needs ;-P

[canbuywontbuy]

2 hours ago, billybong said:

With net migration averaging at about 300,000 a year that would account for about 6 x 300,000 = 1,800,000 of the extra 2,160,000.  There's births and deaths but they tend to take place within existing housing stock.  Then there's the other say 300,000 a year arriving that are balanced by about 300,000 leaving the country but those arriving don't always want to live where those leaving the country used to live. 

Some of those will be living in overcrowded conditions say 3 to a room instead of 1 to a room so no extra heating cost in those cases despite the extra numbers, they still only have to heat the one room.

So indeed there must be an increased demand on the National Grid (and that issue is related to the overstretched infrastructure debate) - it never gets discussed in the media though.  If they refer to possible blackouts etc it's usually attributed to things like peak oil etc.

It would be a miracle if you added 2,160,000 to a population and the demand for power didn't increase.  The increase may or may not be commensurate with the population increase, but 2,160,000 people still need to eat, need to buy stuff, use water services, use all services.  So it's not just direct power usage (heating a room they live in), but indirect usage too (a food factory that now make 10% more food uses more electricity). Every service uses the National Grid.

[Riedquat]

3 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Just looking at ONS estimated figures, there are 2,160,000* more people living in the UK than there were in 2010.   These are the ONS estimations, and I'd be amazed if in reality the population wasn't more than the official estimation.  I wonder if the National Grid is growing commensurately with recent population growth?

*62.77M in 2010,  64.93M in 2016

And some people still wonder why I think population growth is a bloody disaster for the country.

[dgul]

23 hours ago, ChumpusRex said:

STOR is not so much for "TV pickups" (which no longer really exist these days). STOR is the service which requires generation plant which is able to come online (or increase power) with less than 4 hours of warning and which is required to sustain that for 4 hours power without the need to stop. The main role of STOR is two fold: to handle the evening peak load which lasts 2-3 hours, or to restore the operating margin of the grid, if a large power plant shuts down in an emergency, and provide that margin until more efficient plant can be warmed up and brought online.

TV pickups would be covered by fast reserve (FR). FR is a much faster version of STOR. This service requires the provider to be able to deliver energy within 2 minutes of a request and sustain it for 15 minutes. 

National grid also have a series of automatic response services called mandatory frequency response, firm frequency response and enhanced frequency response. These services rely on power plants to automatically increase or decrease power in response to changes in grid frequency (these changes represent second-by-second imbalances in supply and demand). 

Dinorwig actually tender for all of these services (although I don't think they were a chosen supplier for EFR, which mainly went to battery storage units). They also operate in the wholesale forward and day-ahead market to arbitrage price differences between day and night.

Ah - Thanks CR (and others) -- shows how you can't take things at face value...   I consider myself slightly better educated... 

 

[dgul]

5 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Just looking at ONS estimated figures, there are 2,160,000* more people living in the UK than there were in 2010.   These are the ONS estimations, and I'd be amazed if in reality the population wasn't more than the official estimation.  I wonder if the National Grid is growing commensurately with recent population growth?

*62.77M in 2010,  64.93M in 2016

I'd imaging you'd get a more sensible figure for population/demographics by analysing things like food, power, healthcare demand (etc) than by following official statistics.

[Riedquat]

8 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'd imaging you'd get a more sensible figure for population/demographics by analysing things like food, power, healthcare demand (etc) than by following official statistics.

The problem with all of those is that there isn't necessarily a linear relationship. Food consumption can increase without population increase (although both is more likely), unless it's only the choice of food and lack of exercise turning everyone into lardarses. Power won't go up as fast if lots of people are squeezed into the same house, and age (and back to food) has a big impact on healthcare demand. Increasingly overcrowded roads and trains may have a better correlation but even that is rather heavily influenced by the pathetic stupidity of encouraging ever greater amounts of travelling.

[ccc]

17 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'd imaging you'd get a more sensible figure for population/demographics by analysing things like food, power, healthcare demand (etc) than by following official statistics.

It's been mentioned before on here that sewage is actually the best tool for estimating. 

[canbuywontbuy]

5 hours ago, dgul said:

I'd imaging you'd get a more sensible figure for population/demographics by analysing things like food, power, healthcare demand (etc) than by following official statistics.

Exactly.  The ONS just use official immigration numbers, add births and remove deaths to arrive at their estimations.  I can't help but think that works in the favour of the government because by design it doesn't even try to count illegals.  Yet when they want to bolster GDP, they now include estimations on prostitution and drug-dealing!

[dgul]

7 hours ago, Riedquat said:

The problem with all of those is that there isn't necessarily a linear relationship. Food consumption can increase without population increase (although both is more likely), unless it's only the choice of food and lack of exercise turning everyone into lardarses. Power won't go up as fast if lots of people are squeezed into the same house, and age (and back to food) has a big impact on healthcare demand. Increasingly overcrowded roads and trains may have a better correlation but even that is rather heavily influenced by the pathetic stupidity of encouraging ever greater amounts of travelling.

Well, the comment was a bit tongue in cheek, but I recall that Tesco etc have their own population models that they use for shop growth predictions, and they consistently give a population far in excess of official statistics.

[ChewingGrass]

6 minutes ago, dgul said:

Well, the comment was a bit tongue in cheek, but I recall that Tesco etc have their own population models that they use for shop growth predictions, and they consistently give a population far in excess of official statistics.

Worked in the water industry a few years ago which is heavily regulated and proceduralised with regard to design of new infrastructure. Design work on sewage works is done to population data and standards dictated years ago. This is where the disconnect in population data turns up as sewage flows through treatment works in open channels (open channel flow) and unlike pipes the flow is limited by their size etc. It is not uncommon for these channels to overflow in certain areas of the country simply because the population data is incorrect i.e. there are many more people living in an area than is officially recorded.

We all have to poo and the poo doesn't lie.

[Dorkins]

2 hours ago, ChewingGrass said:

We all have to poo and the poo doesn't lie.

The poo can easily lie as diet has such a big impact on how much poo you make. Eat a Japanese diet and you might evacuate once a week if you're lucky, eat a load of roughage and you might go twice a day.

[tinker]

1 hour ago, Dorkins said:

The poo can easily lie as diet has such a big impact on how much poo you make. Eat a Japanese diet and you might evacuate once a week if you're lucky, eat a load of roughage and you might go twice a day.

TMI 

[XswampyX]

14 hours ago, ccc said:

It's been mentioned before on here that sewage is actually the best tool for estimating. 

The remoaners are full of s**t... Could this could be skewing the numbers? 

[canbuywontbuy]

There's an Independent article back in 2007 that had the population (back then!) at around 77 to 80 million :-

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/city-eye-facts-on-a-plate-our-population-is-at-least-77-million-5328454.html

Quote

 

the population of the UK is presently somewhere between 77 and 80 million.

The 2001 census, already hopelessly out of date and easy to avoid for those who find filling in forms a trifle inelegant, numbered us at a little under 59 million. But as statistics go, that one's most definitely a damned lie.

 

My sources for the above statement are good, but scared of admitting the truth for fear of incurring the wrath of Whitehall. It's like the best way of monitoring illegal drug consumption: forget the pious statements from ministers – the foolproof method is to sample our water and the effluent in it. That's easily the best way of monitoring what the nation has been consuming

 

 

[tinker]

Interesting that that City Eye article is from 2007. Goodness knows what the real population is now!!!!