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Halifax +1.4% MOM +5.2% YOY October 2016

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http://static.halifax.co.uk/assets/pdf/mortgages/pdf/October-House-Price-index.pdf

 

They compare August/ Sept/ Oct 2015 with the corresponding months this year to arrive at the annual figure. October 2016 on October 2015  is 6.1% (217411/ 204882). but i guess it smooths out the generally erratic data.

Edited by crashmonitor

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"UK home sales in 2016 Quarter 3 (July to September) were 8% lower than in the same period last year"

"[Mortgage] approvals in 2016 Quarter 3 were 12% lower than in 2015 Quarter 3"

"The stock of homes available for sale was largely flat over the three months from July to September, but it remains around the lowest levels ever recorded" 

 

 

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I can't get my head around the Zoopla area data. Up until last month it was showing a fall (-1 to -4%) over the last 3 and 6 months in Beverley & Cottingham where we're waiting to buy. For some reason everything has gone positive (+1 to +2%) with their latest update for the last 3 and 6 months which means in the last month prices must have shot up considerably, OR their data for the previous months was wrong and they've corrected/updated it?

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17 minutes ago, electrogear said:

I can't get my head around the Zoopla area data. Up until last month it was showing a fall (-1 to -4%) over the last 3 and 6 months in Beverley & Cottingham where we're waiting to buy. For some reason everything has gone positive (+1 to +2%) with their latest update for the last 3 and 6 months which means in the last month prices must have shot up considerably, OR their data for the previous months was wrong and they've corrected/updated it?

used to live there about 20 years ago

is it still nice??

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House price inflation hits three-year low

Annual house price inflation in the UK is now at its lowest rate since July 2013. It fell to 5.2% in the year to the end of October, down from 5.8% in the previous month. House price inflation has nearly halved since hitting a peak of 10% in March this year. This expected slowdown appears to have been largely due to mounting affordability pressures, which have increasingly constrained housing demand.

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1 hour ago, electrogear said:

I can't get my head around the Zoopla area data. Up until last month it was showing a fall (-1 to -4%) over the last 3 and 6 months in Beverley & Cottingham where we're waiting to buy. For some reason everything has gone positive (+1 to +2%) with their latest update for the last 3 and 6 months which means in the last month prices must have shot up considerably, OR their data for the previous months was wrong and they've corrected/updated it?

You are not alone, I spotted the same thing when looking at Surrey data.

It was showing negative about 7-10 days ago, now showing as positive for any point in history i.e 3/6 months

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1 hour ago, Lovely Rum said:

used to live there about 20 years ago

is it still nice??

I went to college there (Bishop Burton)... hated the place, dreary boring scenery. miserable weather, local population made up of snobs and pensioners and horrible chalky water!

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16 hours ago, nome said:

I went to college there (Bishop Burton)... hated the place, dreary boring scenery. miserable weather, local population made up of snobs and pensioners and horrible chalky water!

ha! i really liked it. there was a lovely pub (king billys, i think) that played 1930s jazz on tuesday evenings. good times

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22 hours ago, Nabby81 said:

Guy at work telling me value of his up 44k in 6 months in London

Friends in Luton up 36k in a year so got along way to fall 

 

£1106 a month / £300k is a 4.4% return. House prices have a long way to fall when the crash inevitably begins.

Curiously the best (if best is total amount I can borrow against a rent of £1105) btl mortgage I can find gives me a maximum of £193,000 so you have to have a lot of equity to purchase this flat.

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16 hours ago, ItalianV6 said:

You are not alone, I spotted the same thing when looking at Surrey data.

It was showing negative about 7-10 days ago, now showing as positive for any point in history i.e 3/6 months

Does anyone know what Zoopla uses to calculate the local prices? These swings might be using a sentiment components which is swing around.

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22 hours ago, electrogear said:

I can't get my head around the Zoopla area data. Up until last month it was showing a fall (-1 to -4%) over the last 3 and 6 months in Beverley & Cottingham where we're waiting to buy. For some reason everything has gone positive (+1 to +2%) with their latest update for the last 3 and 6 months which means in the last month prices must have shot up considerably, OR their data for the previous months was wrong and they've corrected/updated it?

It's really easy once you realise its a "load of ********"

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On 07/11/2016 at 10:21 AM, Nabby81 said:

Guy at work telling me value of his up 44k in 6 months in London

Friends in Luton up 36k in a year so got along way to fall 

Luton? Who is paying those prices, why don't those idiot buyers just offer themselves as the vendor's personal slave as well?

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The irony of all these recent post Brexit rises is that they were entirely predictable.

If it wasn't for Brexit the UK housing market would have collapsed a couple of months back, before the Brexit vote prices were falling, but with Sterling devaluing the UK suddenly looks cheaper to foreign buyers and so some of the money that had departed these shores has come back.

Additionally pay rise as inflation rises will be more likely. I know several people who are actually paid in Dollars or Euros, but live in the UK and who are much better off - indeed so is Farage himself.  I also happen to work for a US firm, and despite being paid in Sterling, I know that there will be some decent pay rises this year  as we and all our competition have had to put up prices together due to the change in the exchange rate.

The people who will lose out will be those on low fixed sterling incomes or those in more indigenous industries producing discretionary goods.

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

The irony of all these recent post Brexit rises is that they were entirely predictable.

If it wasn't for Brexit the UK housing market would have collapsed a couple of months back, before the Brexit vote prices were falling, but with Sterling devaluing the UK suddenly looks cheaper to foreign buyers and so some of the money that had departed these shores has come back.

Additionally pay rise as inflation rises will be more likely. I know several people who are actually paid in Dollars or Euros, but live in the UK and who are much better off - indeed so is Farage himself.  I also happen to work for a US firm, and despite being paid in Sterling, I know that there will be some decent pay rises this year  as we and all our competition have had to put up prices together due to the change in the exchange rate.

The people who will lose out will be those on low fixed sterling incomes or those in more indigenous industries producing discretionary goods.

 

 

 

Nah, market is stalling. We will see some good falls over the winter period. Stuff is not selling. Foreigners aren't buying, your listening to the btl graph to much. If there aren't any sizable handouts  by Theresa in the spring, look out below...

Edited by GreenDevil

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17 minutes ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

The irony of all these recent post Brexit rises is that they were entirely predictable.

If it wasn't for Brexit the UK housing market would have collapsed a couple of months back,

But won't there always be "something" coming along that is going to be propping up the market? Now it will be the Trump election, after that it will be the Autumn statement, then it will be the Budget, then it will be Spring again, wash spin repeat. 

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6 hours ago, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

 

The irony of all these recent post Brexit rises is that they were entirely predictable.

If it wasn't for Brexit the UK housing market would have collapsed a couple of months back, before the Brexit vote prices were falling, but with Sterling devaluing the UK suddenly looks cheaper to foreign buyers and so some of the money that had departed these shores has come back.

Additionally pay rise as inflation rises will be more likely. I know several people who are actually paid in Dollars or Euros, but live in the UK and who are much better off - indeed so is Farage himself.  I also happen to work for a US firm, and despite being paid in Sterling, I know that there will be some decent pay rises this year  as we and all our competition have had to put up prices together due to the change in the exchange rate.

The people who will lose out will be those on low fixed sterling incomes or those in more indigenous industries producing discretionary goods.

Yay, one month of housing noise from Halfiax, and more HPI for Mikhail and his 'not in a panic about Brexit' position. \o/

 

On 10/10/2016 at 8:06 AM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

That wasn't the point I was making on projected Government housing market policy.

Personally I reckon they will we do a re-run of the 1970s.  In the past the debt obligations of to pensioners, on property etc were never and issue as we had high inflation which included high wage inflation. Everything I am seeing is suggesting that they will let this run for a bit, the point being that devaluation inherently leads to inflation.

How was 1970s inflation for house prices in real terms?

If it's so HPI++ for you into Brexit, why the fantasising over more meddling to protect the HPI+.  Surely it's a given.

On 10/9/2016 at 7:34 PM, Mikhail Liebenstein said:

I'm sure there may be some Government meddling missing from you list.

1a. IRs held unfathomably low by "Politically neutral" BoE

1b. More QE

1c. Subsidies for house builders via help to buy

1.d Disressed asset purchase programme for house builders.

1.e Property introduced into SIPs.

1.f MIRAS reintroduced and paid for with printed money.

1.g Wheelbarrows and helicopters of cash.

1.h HPI so high it takes three hours to write the zeros on the deposit cheque.

2. Finally the Government runs out of inflationary ideas.

3. Finally IRs rise as there is no more stretch in the elastic.

 

 

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