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Realistbear

Latest B B C News Upbeat About Housing

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4638802.stm

Housing market 'to slow in 2006'
Most market experts predict modest price rises
The housing market will slow in 2006 but will not crash, according to an economic think tank.
The Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecast house prices would rise by 4.4% in 2006, compared to 5.1% growth in 2005.
"
But
the market may weaken in 2007. A slowdown in the US housing market will threaten world economic growth next year; this will have a knock-on effect here in the United Kingdom, and we expect this will take a further edge off our property market," Mr Said added.

The slowdown in the US has already begun:

http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news...rticleID=241428

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I have had enough of this , less than 4 days ago bbc tells everyone House prices are going up etc, 4 days

later now they say its going down the pan ???

I will tell it how it is :-

1. house prices are overpriced

2. Nobody in their right mind will buy a council flat for 150k in bad area

3. Everyone who is mortgaged upto eyeballs to buy over priced houses are now skint!

4. Couples are splitting up becuase they have no money becasue they panic bought.

5. No FTB with any sense like me is going to buy

I am no rocket scienties but even i can see the market is going down the toilet ?

Tell me if im wrong someone please ???

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I have had enough of this , less than 4 days ago bbc tells everyone House prices are going up etc, 4 days

later now they say its going down the pan ???

I will tell it how it is :-

1. house prices are overpriced

2. Nobody in their right mind will buy a council flat for 150k in bad area

3. Everyone who is mortgaged upto eyeballs to buy over priced houses are now skint!

4. Couples are splitting up becuase they have no money becasue they panic bought.

5. No FTB with any sense like me is going to buy

I am no rocket scienties but even i can see the market is going down the toilet ?

Tell me if im wrong someone please ???

6. Potential FTBERS and people who see the coming problems are saving like crazy making things worse, they only buy on ebay, and are slowing the economy further, when they government would like them to be in debt....

Edited by moosetea

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This is the link to the CEBR report:

CEBR

To my eyes this really is nonsense. Its a one page summary with no links to supporting information and no empirical basis for the prediction.

It relies upon the argument that demand outstrips supply but there are two basic flaws in the argument:

1. Much of the recent demand has been speculative gambling on ever higher prices, which can evaporate very quickly.

2. Changes in underlying supply and demand are much more gradual than they seem to appreciate and go no way near explaining the doubling of prices in the last 5 years. If there is a shortage of housing then it has been so for many years and is not a new phenomenon.

Reading their report you would be forgiven for believing that about a third of the UK housing stock somehow fell into the North Sea in 2001, such is the weight they place on the lack of supply.

Whatever way you look at it the only real explanation for today's prices is a speculative bubble, in reality they are just saying that they think the bubble will continue for a bit longer.

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6. Potential FTBERS and people who see the coming problems are saving like crazy making things worse, they only buy on ebay, and are slowing the economy further, when they government would like them to be in debt....

This is a really good point. There are so many bargains around that I've found it's possible to live really cheaply (house prices aside). Rent is lowest now than I've ever paid, it's possible to buy good quality clothes on the high street at a fraction of what they would once have cost (Saturday I noticed 70% off in many shops, some had 80% off and one even had 90% off) and I find I can save substantial amounts every month. When saving doesn't mean doing without, why on earth not wait for prices to fall even further?

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Does anybody have access to the CEBR quarterly housing forecast, I really would like to have a careful look at it to see what they base their forecast on.

Does anybody know who Mark Pragnell (the author) is? CEBR say he was at the consumers association for 10 years but what else? What/where did he study etc?

I hate this sort of report, it makes predictions about the future but is very light on details that can be checked and verified.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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