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Could this be the month that shows the bubble has popped ... can I be bothered to be bothered? I'm guessing MoM will be flat .... don't dare hope for a drop.

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I think we're still within the calm before the storm.. Inflation and divorcing from the EU are on the horizon.. Once the reality hits.. anything could happen.

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42 minutes ago, Patient London FTB said:

0% must mask another fall for London

Prices across the whole of London must now be falling.

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The BBC reporting of this is odd

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37844832

Cant bring themselves to say prices are falling.

"In the year to the end of October, prices went up by 4.6%, down from 5.3% in September. "

"The average price of a UK house fell from £206,015 to £205,904, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. "

_92221427_chart_uk_house_prices_624_v3.p

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""The cost of servicing the typical mortgage as a share of take-home pay is now above its 2007 peak in London and above its long-run average in the outer metropolitan and outer south-east regions. "

 

This is the level that collapsed the banking system.


What do these f**king idiots think is coming next ?

 

 

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8 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

""The cost of servicing the typical mortgage as a share of take-home pay is now above its 2007 peak in London and above its long-run average in the outer metropolitan and outer south-east regions. "

 

This is the level that collapsed the banking system.


What do these f**king idiots think is coming next ?

More props, more QE and negative rates, anything to save the ponzi.

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20 minutes ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

""The cost of servicing the typical mortgage as a share of take-home pay is now above its 2007 peak in London and above its long-run average in the outer metropolitan and outer south-east regions. "

 

This is the level that collapsed the banking system.


What do these f**king idiots think is coming next ?

 

 

And that is at historic low, near zero interest rates. What would things look like if we had 2007 interest rates? Bank of England has effectively boxed themselves in. They cannot fight against currency devaluation without bankrupting mortgage holders. This is a dangerous position to be in. If we have further runs on the pound then there is literally nothing the BoE can do without crucifying mortgage holders - and people out there will know this. What happens if external powers start putting pressure on the pound?

 

They have two choices - allow inflation to run out of control (forcing up food & energy prices) or raise IR's and bring about a housing crash....

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1 minute ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

They have two choices - allow inflation to run out of control (forcing up food & energy prices) or raise IR's and bring about a housing crash....

No, Carney won't and can't raise rates. He'll be thinking that telling us to look through the inflation to sunnier times will somehow solve the immediate problem, people won't be able to afford their mortgage/rent against a backdrop of shrinking disposable income.

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Could you imagine the shock if he actually did raise rates, it would crystalize the past seven years feckless mishandling of interest rate setting since the GFC. This patient isn't going to survive being revived from the anaesthetic.  

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-02/hammond-s-820-million-reason-to-shun-u-k-property-tax-review

 

Countrywide are advocating a stamp duty cut... Apparently the market needs kick starting, what a bunch of loons?

' The additional tax “stops people from moving and that’s very bad for the economy,” said Helen Gordon, chief executive officer at landlord Grainger Plc, who wants the government to review the tax rise. “A U.S. banker isn’t going to spend 500,000 pounds on stamp duty with Brexit hanging over their job.” Gordon was speaking at a seminar about Brexit’s impact on London property organized by broker CBRE Group Inc. '

Better get the violins out for the poor banksters lads.

Edited by GreenDevil

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The likes of George Soros are going to be queuing up to place currency trades against the pound. They see the BoE as sitting ducks.

 

"Many speculators, George Soros chief among them, wondered how long fixed exchange rates could fight market forces, and they began to take up short positions against the pound. Soros borrowed heavily to bet more on a drop in the pound. Britain raised its interest rates to double digits to try to attract investors. The government was hoping to alleviate the selling pressure by creating more buying pressure."

 

Does the above sound familiar? 1992 - George Soros vs the Pound.

 

Now, replace "how long fixed exchange rates could fight market forces" with "how long a holding 0.25% exchange rates could fight market forces"

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10 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

The likes of George Soros are going to be queuing up to place currency trades against the pound. They see the BoE as sitting ducks.

 

"Many speculators, George Soros chief among them, wondered how long fixed exchange rates could fight market forces, and they began to take up short positions against the pound. Soros borrowed heavily to bet more on a drop in the pound. Britain raised its interest rates to double digits to try to attract investors. The government was hoping to alleviate the selling pressure by creating more buying pressure."

 

Does the above sound familiar? 1992 - George Soros vs the Pound.

 

Now, replace "how long fixed exchange rates could fight market forces" with "how long a holding 0.25% exchange rates could fight market forces"

There must be a worthwhile play here for some of the hedge funds. Short the banks and then attack pound to force a rate rise, which in turn triggers a bank collapse?

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The figures have limited meaning. If all unsold property was auctioned off without reserve at the end of each month, then the figures would have meaning. This 0% masks a build up of unsold property at the higher end, which isn't taken into account. If this was factored in at estimated auction price there would be about a 10% fall in prices for the month.

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47 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

And that is at historic low, near zero interest rates. What would things look like if we had 2007 interest rates? Bank of England has effectively boxed themselves in. They cannot fight against currency devaluation without bankrupting mortgage holders. This is a dangerous position to be in. If we have further runs on the pound then there is literally nothing the BoE can do without crucifying mortgage holders - and people out there will know this. What happens if external powers start putting pressure on the pound?

 

They have two choices - allow inflation to run out of control (forcing up food & energy prices) or raise IR's and bring about a housing crash....

It sounds like they will tolerate inflation. Mad. 

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1 minute ago, simon49 said:

The figures have limited meaning. If all unsold property was auctioned off without reserve at the end of each month, then the figures would have meaning. This 0% masks a build up of unsold property at the higher end, which isn't taken into account. If this was factored in at estimated auction price there would be about a 10% fall in prices for the month.

Yes I agree. This number is largely meaningless without looking at individual cities or counties. Then by size/cost of house and age/earnings of the owners/buyers.

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55 minutes ago, SOLZHENITSYN said:

They have two choices - allow inflation to run out of control (And be hung from lamposts)  (forcing up food & energy prices) or raise IR's and bring about a housing crash....

 

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35 minutes ago, happyrichie said:

surely with the pound falling and imports costing more the 1.4% inflation target set by Carney should force him 2 raise rates 2 counter balance the inflation

We havd 5% inflation for over a year post 2008 IIRC and the bankers did nothing....

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