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All quiet on the Shibor front

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Seeing some activity on the gilts thread, I thought I'd dig up some historical data on Shibor, to compare with what is going on elsewhere.

Apologies if a plot in this format is easily available, but I couldn't find one, and I quite like looking at historical patterns to get some context, so I plotted up what I could find on the Shibor website.

Not really sure what to conclude ... except that things are currently rather (indeed ominously?) quiet, according to this statistic.

 

Shibor_all_data.png

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Here's an update for the last few days, to 11th Nov.

My data sources are a bit coarse-grained, and I'm not sure why there are breaks in the foreign securities holdings (those data are from the US Department of the Treasury).

In any event, any tremors in Shibor are pretty small-scale right now (by historical standards).

Some evidence of selling of T-bonds over recent months, though, which could presage a change of direction in the world economy ... or it might not!

Do let me know what data I should add to give a clearer picture of China as it evolves (and where to find those data!). I'd like to include something like electricity usage or steel production, and I would also like better data on growth, both in terms of source (China may well be manipulating statistics) and temporal resolution.

 

All_data.png

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I had to google "shibor", as I suspect it is above most of our heads.

Looking at the Shanghai Composite, it looks bullish above 3000pts. Industrial metals have responded by moving sharply higher, with the election of Donald Trump, and his policies on infrastructure spending. I suspect, of all his policies, infrastructure spending will be the biggest one he will be able to implement. The markets think that their own stock market crash (through their own speculation) will a greater threat than trade wars with Donald Trump (or the market would have moved down on the result).

big_chart.gif

Mining companies such as AAL are still at the 2008 lows.

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On 12/11/2016 at 7:39 PM, Toast said:

Do let me know what data I should add to give a clearer picture of China as it evolves (and where to find those data!). I'd like to include something like electricity usage or steel production, and I would also like better data on growth, both in terms of source (China may well be manipulating statistics) and temporal resolution.

 

 

May be manipulating statistics!!!!

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