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Randall Herbert

What Is The 'real' Rate Of Uk Inflation?

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Thought this would be interesting to gauge.

A UK Oil major uses about 15% for budgeting future projects if that is a clue.

So what do you think folks? How much is 'Crash' Gordon Brown taking out of your pocket each and every month?

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Guest magnoliawalls

Thought this would be interesting to gauge.

A UK Oil major uses about 15% for budgeting future projects if that is a clue.

So what do you think folks? How much is 'Crash' Gordon Brown taking out of your pocket each and every month?

Good topic.

M4 money supply growth at 12.6% and measured GDP at 3.5% is another indication.

I am intrigued as to the UK Oil major using a 15% discount rate, which one and can you provide a link?

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A UK Oil major uses about 15% for budgeting future projects if that is a clue.

Of what use or relevance are consumer inflation rates to the budgeting of oil projects? This sounds completely implausible. They may have a specialised inflation figure that has little connection to consumer prices, or (more likely) it's actually the rate of return they require on investment.

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What would be interesting is the rate of inflation of necessities vs luxuaries.

Obviously the wealthy spend a smaller percentage of their income on necessities than the poor. One thing that hasn't really been touched upon is the effects of inflation for the different income brackets.

It seems that the poorer you are the more you feel the effects of inflation. Council tax, petrol, gas, electricity - these things can take a large percentage of your expenditure if you are on a low income, and as we all know these things have been experiencing double digit inflation. That's without mentioning housing costs.

The gap between rich and poor is widening in the UK at the moment and IMO inflation of necessities vs luxuaries is playing a large part in this.

Edited by Bear Goggles

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Of what use or relevance are consumer inflation rates to the budgeting of oil projects? This sounds completely implausible. They may have a specialised inflation figure that has little connection to consumer prices, or (more likely) it's actually the rate of return they require on investment.

Not specifically the required margin I am talking about, more to do with availability of drill rig slots, steel price, exotic alloy price, chronic shortage of vessel availablity, skilled human availabilty, all which paint a very shaky picture of even short term budget forcasting.

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Drilling rig rates give an indication of the inflation faced by oil companies.

We drilled with a rig at £100,000/day a couple of years ago, and the same rig is now rumoured to be priced at £500,000/day.

This is an extreme case, but 500% inflation over 2 years (225% per annum) on one of the largest costs the oil companies face is a bit different to what consumers face.

I'd say it wasn't relevant to this discussion.

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Looking awfully like the real UK inflation rate, as experienced by the man on the street, is of the order of 6-8% in the UK. Not quite 2% at all.

Is their something that 'Crash' Gordon Brown and Phoney Bliar are not telling us? :huh:

Edited by Randall Herbert

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To someone like myself (pretty normal) it seems criminal that such an important measuring device should be in the control/at the whim of a government, and things that are important easure of people's expenditure can be removed from the inflation measure.

Is there not way to get a list of the most neccesary things people buy/spend there money on and lobby to have that as the measure of inflation?

Can anyone think of the essential expeditures/what would you have in the Infltion measure. I'd say

Rent/House Prices

Petrol

Council Tax

Anyone want to add?

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Guest magnoliawalls

To someone like myself (pretty normal) it seems criminal that such an important measuring device should be in the control/at the whim of a government, and things that are important easure of people's expenditure can be removed from the inflation measure.

Is there not way to get a list of the most neccesary things people buy/spend there money on and lobby to have that as the measure of inflation?

Can anyone think of the essential expeditures/what would you have in the Infltion measure. I'd say

Rent/House Prices

Petrol

Council Tax

Anyone want to add?

Food

Heating costs

gas

electricity

water charges (where not included in council tax)

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Rent/House Prices

Petrol

Council Tax

Anyone want to add?

Food, Electric, Gas, Water

I'd also add entertainment (though limited)

DVD's CD's, Cinema, Pub drink(beer, spirits etc)

Clothes

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Public transport fares? (or unfairs)

To someone like myself (pretty normal) it seems criminal that such an important measuring device should be in the control/at the whim of a government, and things that are important easure of people's expenditure can be removed from the inflation measure.

Is there not way to get a list of the most neccesary things people buy/spend there money on and lobby to have that as the measure of inflation?

Can anyone think of the essential expeditures/what would you have in the Infltion measure. I'd say

Rent/House Prices

Petrol

Council Tax

Anyone want to add?

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I just think of inflation as the rate of new money added to the economy in excess of the growth in GDP, so it works out about 8% ish for 2005.

I don't care what goods/services etc are cheaper or more expensive, when you increase the money supply more than it is needed, with regards to growth in that economy, the purchasing power of the currency will decrease pretty much accordingly.

You simply cannot create "wealth" out of thin air by creating more paper money.

I laugh when people say how chinese goods are getting cheaper as per CPI, what they don't say is that if the pound kept it's purchasing power these goods would be EVEN CHEAPER STILL.

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Public transport fares? (or unfairs)

Even there they'd fiddle it by ignoring the fact that the railways keep removing cheap fares: the fares that still exist might 'only' have increased by 10% a year in the last five years, but the price of a train ticket into London for an evening has gone up from four pounds to over ten in that time due to the railways eliminating cheaper tickets.

The end result, of course, is that I've gone from travelling maybe three times a week to about once a month, so they make far less money from me than they did before.

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Prescott is promising to keep council tax rises down to under 5.75% until the Labour cronies are elected in May this year.

Utilty bills are expected to rise by double digits starting with British Gas soon.

You can bet that the inflation lie will still read 2%+-0.6%.

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Talking of Inflation, I have been dealing with rises in food costs since the start of the year.

So far it is about 3.8% on average. But, these manufacturers will squeeze in another couple of rises as the year goes on - they will also make their products smaller in size, then discontinue them, then bring out a whole new size at a new larger size!

After I did lots of reports on this, did a nice graph etc etc... I showed other economic illiterates colleagues I work with. They were shocked. The inflation lie is becoming more difficult to believe!

Edit:

Oh, and the Gas/Elec rise reported by the media has really pissed off some people I know! "How can they let this happen"!!! :lol::lol::lol: :angry:

Edited by Jason

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Just completed a personal comparison between 2004 and 2005 on everyday living. The difference at the end of 2005 was a rise of 8%.

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Just completed a personal comparison between 2004 and 2005 on everyday living. The difference at the end of 2005 was a rise of 8%.

Sorry, you have obviously miscalculated there.

Perhaps your weightings and hedonic adjustments are out of kilter.

Here at Control we know our figures to be correct.

You see we know the answer beforehand. It is then a simple matter to arrange the input figures.

:)

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Does any single person out there on HPC actually believe the Nu Labour figure for inflation ?

Rather than trying to list all those that should be included, does anyone know what the lying b*****d in the Exchequer excludes to allow the figures to 'work'?

I think house prices are excluded from memory, but what else?

Sorry, really annoyed about this one.

JD :ph34r:

Edited by john_d_uk

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Rather than trying to list all those that should be included, does anyone know what the lying b*****d in the Exchequer excludes to allow the figures to 'work'?

I think house prices are excluded from memory, but what else?

Sorry, really annoyed about this one.

JD :ph34r:

On the face of it the statistical analysis looks quite competent with a lot of things included that urban legends tend to suggest are not. That is probably a symptom of the lack of reality the figure always has with the reality on the ground as experienced by the ever increasing rate of emptying of our wallets.

The figures are cooked. Big Time

How do they do it?

Each component of the 'basket' has a variable weighting factor which has an influence on how much it affects the ups and downs of the basket cost.

If you study the variable weighting of the items in the basket over a period of time you will find that their individual importance and ups and downs defies logic. 'Crash' Gordon Brown is manipulating the weightings of the basket to suit his low inflation smoke and mirrors requirement, so that Joe Public can't ask for an inflation busting pay rise. There are some illogical and large changes which bare no relation to reality.

Easy to cook the inflation stats if your in control of them.

Its all about control, Globalisation.....i.e. reducing our quality of life in the UK down to some world average where we are seen to be all equal in wealth and competition.

Trouble is the UK has a long way to fall until this point is reached.

You won't like what Tony & Gordon have planned for us.

Ever asked yourself why there are no immigration controls what so ever in this country anymore when we are supposedly under Global threat of Terror?

There are no immigration controls or any checks on the huge increase in the import of drugs to this country.

There will never be any under Nu Labour.

Welcome to your future...

Edited by Randall Herbert

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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