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TheCountOfNowhere

HTB Ends soon...what impact will it have?

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Apparantley HTB ends soon ( I find this hard to believe ).

But it clearly helped bump up prices from insane levels to criminal levels, so what effect will it have removing it.

Have the BTLers complaining about tax rises, realised this is happening and could pretty much loose 20% of their portfolio value in a few months ?

 

#GIRFUY

 

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I'm nervous that Hammond and Carney will find ways to carry on pumping. I suspect it's Tm's influence that's stopping it.

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12 minutes ago, Si1 said:

I'm nervous that Carney will find ways to carry on pumping. I suspect it's Tm's influence that's stopping it.

FTFY

I suspect that Hammond is quite happy for things to occur. He comes from a different world to the 118 and povertylater lot.

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1 minute ago, spunko2010 said:

Oh yes, the "Cabinet's biggest landlord" is of course cut from a different cloth.

Yep because I would bet decent money that his properties don't have a 70% loan to equity valuation....

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I'm not sure why he would be though. Is there a turf war going on between highly leveraged landlords and those landlords who pay in cash?

In my book they're all the same...

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2 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

I'm not sure why he would be though. Is there a turf war going on between highly leveraged landlords and those landlords who pay in cash?

In my book they're all the same...

Sensible old fashioned landlords (those who understand what yield is required to make the hassle of owning property worthwhile) have been priced out by suicidal idiots paying well over the odds for the last 10-15 years in the hope of house price inflation forever.

Albeit I'm stating the above on anecdotes rather than actual data.

Anyone who is cash rich would be happy for prices to fall back to affordable levels.

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6 minutes ago, spunko2010 said:

I'm not sure why he would be though. Is there a turf war going on between highly leveraged landlords and those landlords who pay in cash?

In my book they're all the same...

Do not confuse traditional landlords with buy to let chancers.

Traditional landlords, who build up their business by reinvesting profit into new properties as and when they can afford them, are a world apart from the buy to let jokers who hoover up entire streets using borrowed money.

Traditional landlords may pass on four or five houses, all paid for, to the kids, or sell some to fund retirement. Buy to let jokers, with hundreds of houses, who should have gone bust in 2008 but were bailed out by the government, have nothing but mortgage debt backed by a dubious balance sheet.

 

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1 hour ago, eek said:

Sensible old fashioned landlords (those who understand what yield is required to make the hassle of owning property worthwhile) have been priced out by suicidal idiots paying well over the odds for the last 10-15 years in the hope of house price inflation forever.

Albeit I'm stating the above on anecdotes rather than actual data.

Anyone who is cash rich would be happy for prices to fall back to affordable levels.

Exactly the same at car auctions ask any bona fide car trader (if thats not an oxymoron...!) 

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1 hour ago, eek said:

Yep because I would bet decent money that his properties don't have a 70% loan to equity valuation....

Not sure how someone with a 70k-100K salary accumaltes so much wealth...yeah sure, he's different.

 

he's already had a shot fired across his bow and is refusing to budge...like carnage.

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Just now, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Not sure how someone with a 70k-100K salary accumaltes so much wealth...yeah sure, he's different.

 

he's already had a shot fired across his bow and is refusing to budge...like carnage.

The older Tory MPs managed to have a career until becoming MPs and could still work outside Parliament prior to coming to power in 2010 (and many did).

It's worth looking https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/01783537/filing-history for the how and where of his money.

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11 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

Apparantley HTB ends soon ( I find this hard to believe ).

 

That's because it's not true.

HTB (equity loan on new builds) is here until at least 2020

It's HTB2 (mortgage guarantee on existing houses) that's due to end at the end of 2016

 

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16 minutes ago, mrtickle said:

And then, in the epic bust, it'll be "we need to support the housing market now more than ever" <_<

Except instead of sacrificing firstborn at full moon on a concrete slab, it will be intergenerational debt for those not yet born.

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16 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

That's because it's not true.

HTB (equity loan on new builds) is here until at least 2020

It's HTB2 (mortgage guarantee on existing houses) that's due to end at the end of 2016

 

That's the one that helped cause the insane bubble.

 

Putting a 20/40% rug under the housing pyramid.

 

When therug is pulled....

 

 

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1 hour ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

That's the one that helped cause the insane bubble.

 

Putting a 20/40% rug under the housing pyramid.

 

When therug is pulled....

 

 

Do you not understand the difference between what we have been calling HTB and HTB2?

The 20%/40% is an equity loan on new builds only. That is not stopping

It's the little used HTB2 which is stopping. That is when people take out a 95% mortgage on an existing house and the governbankment guarantees 20% of the loan to bail the bank out if the borrower defaults. That didn't rise to 40%.

Are you trying to create a new build buying frenzy by making people think the whole HTB is ending?

 

 

 

 

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49 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Do you not understand the difference between what we have been calling HTB and HTB2?

The 20%/40% is an equity loan on new builds only. That is not stopping

It's the little used HTB2 which is stopping. That is when people take out a 95% mortgage on an existing house and the governbankment guarantees 20% of the loan to bail the bank out if the borrower defaults. That didn't rise to 40%.

Are you trying to create a new build buying frenzy by making people think the whole HTB is ending?

 

 

 

 

Yes I understand the difference I thought the 40% gauranteed had been extended to HTB2 also.

My mistake.

The rmeoval of HTB2 means all 2nd house owners that bought with that support, + all those in the pyramid who benefitted from it are in a whole lot of trouble.

 

 

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The removal of HTB2 and my predictions based on an outside perspective.

Pros

More money for Hammond as those with the smallest deposits will need to look at new builds rather than all housing options. This will stimulate construction growth for his company and other developers.

Cons

Limited options for those who cannot save enough for a reasonable deposit (5%), will need to move to HTB as a last resort and will not be able to look at the 'older' housing stock.

Afterthoughts

 I personally think 5% is an unreasonably small deposit but this seems to be the acceptable social norm, allowing those who cant 'afford' to get on the ladder to get on it with assistance. I hope that the 'older' housing stock is no longer available to 'deposit poor' people and that declines of 15% will be seen as there will be less demand for them due to a support being removed. Even if the decline is only a 10% realized drop by march, hopefully this will cause sentiment to change even further.

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You are aware that the reason HTB2 is being closed is because currently as a first time buyer you can go into a building society or bank with a 5% deposit and they will offer you a deal better than you can get on HTB2,

The reason its being removed is that its not required at the moment - banks are willing to lend 95% mortgages and to be honest have always been able to do so. HTB2 was a none entity of a scheme created because someone thought it would be a good idea.

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8 minutes ago, eek said:

You are aware that the reason HTB2 is being closed is because currently as a first time buyer you can go into a building society or bank with a 5% deposit and they will offer you a deal better than you can get on HTB2,

The reason its being removed is that its not required at the moment - banks are willing to lend 95% mortgages and to be honest have always been able to do so. HTB2 was a none entity of a scheme created because someone thought it would be a good idea.

Time will tell. 

 

My theory that FLS was the main driver behind the insanity we see but I suspect HTB2 ( and 1 ) has had some impact as well.

Even with a 5% deposit you are taklng crica 30K to buy a s&&t flat in London ( including expenses etc ).

 

 

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According to Moneyfacts there were 986 95% mortgages available in August 2007. By December 2008 they numbered fewer than 10.

Today there are more than 250 95% mortgages in the marketplace. HTB2 has evidently served its purpose.

A full-blooded return to 100% mortgages (and RMBS securitisation) via the so-called challenger banks is the next hpi gimmick, I reckon.

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47 minutes ago, cashinmattress said:

End HTB and introduce something along the lines of what ROI is doing...

Negative equity? can't Sell... Gov't to allow transfer of balance to new home and ZERO deposit.

We don't need that currently (outside of NI where its probably too late). Give it 3-4 years however....

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