Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
ItalianV6

Interesting piece on house prices....

Recommended Posts

I am 100% certain next batch of ONS numbers will show a significant decline. £ weakness may help revive London luxury market, but general, there should be a decline for at least 2-3 periods.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I saw Danny Dorling speak on Saturday.  He is convinced the market has stalled for transactions in a significant way in mid 2016 and soon we will be plummeting in price into the self reinforcing down leg aka 2009.  I think he is right.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ItalianV6 said:

It is Danny Dorling, didn't see it referenced anywhere else. Hope of use/news to someone :)

No worries mate

 Great article and fair play :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he's called it a bit early. Land reg monthly was up in August, though the regional gains/drops are very patchy.

Chasing yield as an ownership ambition has changed dramatically since they destroyed savings rates. Now we have couples with little concept of annual yields parking their money in bricks long term. I think it's more likely that we'll see rents stick or fall, as long as they're getting the council tax paid and about covering any repairs, they'll keep their money in property. If there's any extra left over each month, that's a bonus.

It's not the yield any longer, housing is the new premium bond for anyone with a few hundred K stashed, and the hope is that in ten years time they might make the profit.

It won't crash/adjust back to salaries until rates are back to 5-7% historical norms...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, ElPapasito said:

I saw Danny Dorling speak on Saturday.  He is convinced the market has stalled for transactions in a significant way in mid 2016 and soon we will be plummeting in price into the self reinforcing down leg aka 2009.  I think he is right.

 

Link pls - this fellow seems to be very very interesting!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, thehowler said:

I think he's called it a bit early. Land reg monthly was up in August, though the regional gains/drops are very patchy.

Chasing yield as an ownership ambition has changed dramatically since they destroyed savings rates. Now we have couples with little concept of annual yields parking their money in bricks long term. I think it's more likely that we'll see rents stick or fall, as long as they're getting the council tax paid and about covering any repairs, they'll keep their money in property. If there's any extra left over each month, that's a bonus.

It's not the yield any longer, housing is the new premium bond for anyone with a few hundred K stashed, and the hope is that in ten years time they might make the profit.

It won't crash/adjust back to salaries until rates are back to 5-7% historical norms...

Didn't need that in Japan.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the absurd long term low/emergency interest rates have skewed the affordability graphs to match long term averages, or lower. If you can get over the deposit obstacle, you can borrow the money at a smaller percentage of take home reddies than the 80s and 90s.

If they can borrow the money, they will. It's always been about the easy money.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Hengist Pod said:

Watched that and noticed that there was virtually no mention of interest rates, why could that be? Apart from his admission to have been foolish enough to have bought into a city at the top of the housing bubble maybe he's hoping to be snapped up as a researcher in the finance industry or find a high paying place at US university. Loved his 'areas of high immigration voted to remain because they know the benefit of migration' like all who mention that chestnut they fail to admit that those areas are a, close to fifty percent migrant populated and b, the original populations are mostly so elderly they can't get out. I know two elderly original residents in my area and both didn't vote. "Its for the young to chose" and the other didn't vote as they found the confusing local parties campaign literature put them off. 

I think the New Statesman article though right, misses the point because it fails to mention the big bang and adoption of financialization by the banking sector. If there had been minimal or no regulation of banks and one or two of them allowed to own their bad decisions they would not have expanded. We could have retained capitalism and avoided the current crisis. Gordon Brown's 'no more boom and bust' has directly led to our current situation. Regulation of rents and etc  are just treating the symptom. We need to chose between capitalism and corproratism. Retain low rates shows we have chosen the latter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Blod said:

Watched that and noticed that there was virtually no mention of interest rates, why could that be? Apart from his admission to have been foolish enough to have bought into a city at the top of the housing bubble maybe he's hoping to be snapped up as a researcher in the finance industry or find a high paying place at US university.

I can't hack watching 30+ minutes of Dorling this morning.

Has he bought recently?

Yes; Brown.  Choice between capitalism and corporatism - chosen later - but also £Trillions in equity long wave HPIers and BTLers have been happy with this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Blod said:

. Gordon Brown's 'no more boom and bust' has directly led to our current situation. 

I don't understand why he is not panned more often. What was he was smoking? He was presiding over the biggest housing bubble of all time. Where I was at the time, the HPI graph went vertical around 04 - 06, thanks to the miracle of 'Light touch regulation'. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • Next General Election   90 members have voted

    1. 1. When do you predict the next general election will be held?


      • 2019
      • 2020
      • 2021
      • 2022

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.