Pablo Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/10/has-brexit-burst-british-housing-bubble Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Danny dorling? Already been referenced here if so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
80sBaby Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 I am 100% certain next batch of ONS numbers will show a significant decline. £ weakness may help revive London luxury market, but general, there should be a decline for at least 2-3 periods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pablo Posted October 24, 2016 Author Share Posted October 24, 2016 6 minutes ago, Si1 said: Danny dorling? Already been referenced here if so. It is Danny Dorling, didn't see it referenced anywhere else. Hope of use/news to someone Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ah-so Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 29 minutes ago, ItalianV6 said: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/10/has-brexit-burst-british-housing-bubble Thanks for posting . Good article. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ElPapasito Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 I saw Danny Dorling speak on Saturday. He is convinced the market has stalled for transactions in a significant way in mid 2016 and soon we will be plummeting in price into the self reinforcing down leg aka 2009. I think he is right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 2 hours ago, ItalianV6 said: It is Danny Dorling, didn't see it referenced anywhere else. Hope of use/news to someone No worries mate Great article and fair play Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hengist Pod Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Video a few months old now - apologies if previously posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 I think he's called it a bit early. Land reg monthly was up in August, though the regional gains/drops are very patchy. Chasing yield as an ownership ambition has changed dramatically since they destroyed savings rates. Now we have couples with little concept of annual yields parking their money in bricks long term. I think it's more likely that we'll see rents stick or fall, as long as they're getting the council tax paid and about covering any repairs, they'll keep their money in property. If there's any extra left over each month, that's a bonus. It's not the yield any longer, housing is the new premium bond for anyone with a few hundred K stashed, and the hope is that in ten years time they might make the profit. It won't crash/adjust back to salaries until rates are back to 5-7% historical norms... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
80sBaby Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 2 hours ago, ElPapasito said: I saw Danny Dorling speak on Saturday. He is convinced the market has stalled for transactions in a significant way in mid 2016 and soon we will be plummeting in price into the self reinforcing down leg aka 2009. I think he is right. Link pls - this fellow seems to be very very interesting! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honkydonkey Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 56 minutes ago, Hengist Pod said: Video a few months old now - apologies if previously posted. Thanks mate. I hadn't seen that. http://www.dannydorling.org/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 58 minutes ago, Hengist Pod said: Video a few months old now - apologies if previously posted. Enjoyed that. He's one of my favourite lefties now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honkydonkey Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
honkydonkey Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Si1 Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 1 hour ago, thehowler said: I think he's called it a bit early. Land reg monthly was up in August, though the regional gains/drops are very patchy. Chasing yield as an ownership ambition has changed dramatically since they destroyed savings rates. Now we have couples with little concept of annual yields parking their money in bricks long term. I think it's more likely that we'll see rents stick or fall, as long as they're getting the council tax paid and about covering any repairs, they'll keep their money in property. If there's any extra left over each month, that's a bonus. It's not the yield any longer, housing is the new premium bond for anyone with a few hundred K stashed, and the hope is that in ten years time they might make the profit. It won't crash/adjust back to salaries until rates are back to 5-7% historical norms... Didn't need that in Japan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 Cash buyers here. No loans, no panic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thehowler Posted October 24, 2016 Share Posted October 24, 2016 And the absurd long term low/emergency interest rates have skewed the affordability graphs to match long term averages, or lower. If you can get over the deposit obstacle, you can borrow the money at a smaller percentage of take home reddies than the 80s and 90s. If they can borrow the money, they will. It's always been about the easy money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blod Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 11 hours ago, Hengist Pod said: Video a few months old now - apologies if previously posted. Watched that and noticed that there was virtually no mention of interest rates, why could that be? Apart from his admission to have been foolish enough to have bought into a city at the top of the housing bubble maybe he's hoping to be snapped up as a researcher in the finance industry or find a high paying place at US university. Loved his 'areas of high immigration voted to remain because they know the benefit of migration' like all who mention that chestnut they fail to admit that those areas are a, close to fifty percent migrant populated and b, the original populations are mostly so elderly they can't get out. I know two elderly original residents in my area and both didn't vote. "Its for the young to chose" and the other didn't vote as they found the confusing local parties campaign literature put them off. I think the New Statesman article though right, misses the point because it fails to mention the big bang and adoption of financialization by the banking sector. If there had been minimal or no regulation of banks and one or two of them allowed to own their bad decisions they would not have expanded. We could have retained capitalism and avoided the current crisis. Gordon Brown's 'no more boom and bust' has directly led to our current situation. Regulation of rents and etc are just treating the symptom. We need to chose between capitalism and corproratism. Retain low rates shows we have chosen the latter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 1 hour ago, Blod said: Watched that and noticed that there was virtually no mention of interest rates, why could that be? Apart from his admission to have been foolish enough to have bought into a city at the top of the housing bubble maybe he's hoping to be snapped up as a researcher in the finance industry or find a high paying place at US university. I can't hack watching 30+ minutes of Dorling this morning. Has he bought recently? Yes; Brown. Choice between capitalism and corporatism - chosen later - but also £Trillions in equity long wave HPIers and BTLers have been happy with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hi5lo5 Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/brexit-fears-see-property-owners-slash-asking-prices-by-six-figures-a3377776.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
copydude Posted October 25, 2016 Share Posted October 25, 2016 6 hours ago, Blod said: . Gordon Brown's 'no more boom and bust' has directly led to our current situation. I don't understand why he is not panned more often. What was he was smoking? He was presiding over the biggest housing bubble of all time. Where I was at the time, the HPI graph went vertical around 04 - 06, thanks to the miracle of 'Light touch regulation'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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