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durhamborn

Government deficit up to £10.6 Billion.....For September

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2 minutes ago, Errol said:

Obviously nobody could possibly have foreseen this.

It seems by trying to inflate an economy where there is no point investing,no point working,and no point saving only inflates the deficit.The big corps pay no tax,there are 40% who wont work/cant work/claim and the few left in the middle are waking up and giving up.In government speak though they are "supporting the economy".

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49 minutes ago, Eddie_George said:

Not to worry, they're devalued £billions. :D

 

That is ironically the point of stoking inflation - the real 'value' of your debt obligation decreases.

In the case of the government's debt, that's pretty immaterial as much of it will all be printed away using QE anyway.  The bonds that the BoE holds will never be redeemed at maturity or sold on to third parties.  They will simply keep the existing 435 billion quid rolling over and probably keep adding to it for future spending.  At 'best' they'll come up with 100 year bonds and punt all the QE'd debt obligations into them, as simply outright cancelling the debt would spook the markets.

How long before it's recognised that the government has been outright printing money to keep the economy going and the only 'plan' they have is to print even greater amounts in the future?

 

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6 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

 

That is ironically the point of stoking inflation - the real 'value' of your debt obligation decreases.

In the case of the government's debt, that's pretty immaterial as much of it will all be printed away using QE anyway.  The bonds that the BoE holds will never be redeemed at maturity or sold on to third parties.  They will simply keep the existing 435 billion quid rolling over and probably keep adding to it for future spending.  At 'best' they'll come up with 100 year bonds and punt all the QE'd debt obligations into them, as simply outright cancelling the debt would spook the markets.

How long before it's recognised that the government has been outright printing money to keep the economy going and the only 'plan' they have is to print even greater amounts in the future?

 

Not long,though only the FED have stopped for now,so all big central banks are at it.Where we are exposed is the fact ours goes on welfare spending that sucks in imports.Housing benefit and tax credits are more than the deficit (of course without them tax take would fall) .The government doesnt even pay the coupon on the QE as its handed back to them as BOE "profit" after Carnage and his pals pump enough into their gold plated RPI pensions of course.

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7 minutes ago, Sour Mash said:

 

That is ironically the point of stoking inflation - the real 'value' of your debt obligation decreases.

In the case of the government's debt, that's pretty immaterial as much of it will all be printed away using QE anyway.  The bonds that the BoE holds will never be redeemed at maturity or sold on to third parties.  They will simply keep the existing 435 billion quid rolling over and probably keep adding to it for future spending.  At 'best' they'll come up with 100 year bonds and punt all the QE'd debt obligations into them, as simply outright cancelling the debt would spook the markets.

How long before it's recognised that the government has been outright printing money to keep the economy going and the only 'plan' they have is to print even greater amounts in the future?

 

Government do not write the laws on issuing debt. Witness Argentina Russia etc.

Its more complex than UKGOV is pithcing

I am not a bond trader or a lawyer but there are a few of gotchas with QE:

- Could an investor sue for default or false market?

- Could the BoE retiring bonds be classified as a default?  Ifso then that would result in Gilts being junk/non-investable, cannot be used by the UK banks as capital. The UK regulators have been stuffing Gilts into banks and insurers. Was that sensible for the long run - why not get them to shore up their capital base with Bunds instead - much safer?

UK QE will probably turn out to be a clever idea along the lines of PPI and light touch regulation.

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1 hour ago, durhamborn said:

It seems by trying to inflate an economy where there is no point investing,no point working,and no point saving only inflates the deficit.The big corps pay no tax,there are 40% who wont work/cant work/claim and the few left in the middle are waking up and giving up.In government speak though they are "supporting the economy".

Gidiots  biggest failing 2010-2016 was not rolling back Gordie-nomics.

The briefest of glances show that the UK economy in 2010 was an elaborate, over expensive, unproductive make work scheme.

The fact that this scheme was opened up to ~200m EEers is insane.

Gidiot used the 12% deficit to pursue narrow political goals rather than steady the broader UK economy.

 

 

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4 hours ago, durhamborn said:

It seems by trying to inflate an economy where there is no point investing,no point working,and no point saving only inflates the deficit.The big corps pay no tax,there are 40% who wont work/cant work/claim and the few left in the middle are waking up and giving up.In government speak though they are "supporting the economy".

40% who won't work/can't work/claim...

Who does that include... where did you get the number?

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Err....no surprise.  What do people think is going to happen from here on out? Do they think the government is going to control spending and then get into surplus? Do they think they will get the economy under control? Welcome to the managed decline. If you have any notion of ambition, you will arrange your affairs, and get the hell out of the UK.

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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1 minute ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Err....no surprise.  What do people think is going to happen from here on out? Do they think the government is going to control spending and then get into surplus? Do they think they will get the economy under control? Welcome to the managed decline. If you have any notion of ambition, you will arrange your affairs, and get the hell out of the UK.

Chillax dude, we've taken back control.

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18 minutes ago, Futuroid said:

Chillax dude, we've taken back control.

Nice to see you've seen the light on Brexit, but it's too late anyway....the UK was already fu3ked, probably with a 20% push in the wrong direction from the EU.  Nice to you have you on our side though <_<

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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19 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

Err....no surprise.  What do people think is going to happen from here on out? Do they think the government is going to control spending and then get into surplus? Do they think they will get the economy under control? Welcome to the managed decline. If you have any notion of ambition, you will arrange your affairs, and get the hell out of the UK.

Managed! I doubt it will feel like that even if somewhere, someone is trying to manage it.

Affairs arranged, no debt, no property and most assets easily transferable.

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3 minutes ago, Steve Smith said:

Managed! I doubt it will feel like that even if somewhere, someone is trying to manage it.

Affairs arranged, no debt, no property and most assets easily transferable.

You are truly in a better position than most people in the UK who are going to get continually shafted before the almighty crash.

Yeah, I hear you on "managed" - I just feel like TPTB know it's going down - they're just delaying it as best they can.

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4 hours ago, Futuroid said:

40% who won't work/can't work/claim...

Who does that include... where did you get the number?

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/223013/IM1722_adhoc.pdf

2011 it was 32% ,that doesnt include pensioners and the number is higher now.

Here is the stats for the % of housholds getting more in benefits than paying in tax,its 53.4% 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/media-centre/statements/household-taxes-and-benefits--update/index.html

Edited by durhamborn

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8 minutes ago, durhamborn said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/223013/IM1722_adhoc.pdf

2011 it was 32% ,that doesnt include pensioners and the number is higher now.

Here is the stats for the % of housholds getting more in benefits than paying in tax,its 53.4% 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/media-centre/statements/household-taxes-and-benefits--update/index.html

I presume it doesn't take into account those "tax payers" working in the public sector, who are really paid from tax rather than being net contributors. Would suggest therefore that about 38% of the adult population pay for everything. 

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1 hour ago, durhamborn said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/223013/IM1722_adhoc.pdf

2011 it was 32% ,that doesnt include pensioners and the number is higher now.

Here is the stats for the % of housholds getting more in benefits than paying in tax,its 53.4% 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/media-centre/statements/household-taxes-and-benefits--update/index.html

Nice find, and a good point from mikthe20, about the fact that a lot of 'tax payers' are nothing of the sort, their jobs just exist because of private sector tax payers and debt.

 

I don't live in the UK anymore, but when I did, as a higher rate tax payer in the private sector it is hardly surprising I felt I had the weight of the country on my shoulders with absolutely no thanks.

Edited by reddog

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2 hours ago, doomed said:

I was quite surprised that my mother has just been asking me how to buy gold.  This is somebody that has saved her whole life in fiat.

Iv always found owning the Gold miners is better insurance for sterling investors,you get the $ hedge as well, GDX and GDXJ and SIL.They outperform in a bull market for gold/silver and as i hold them for insurance purposes i like that fact.A bit of physical is always worth holding as well.A few 10g bars can be picked up for just a few % over spot.I use a dealer in Blackpool.If we are in a big debt deflation gold will probably go down with everything else as its an inflation hedge,but still feels right to own a bit just in case we go hyper.Take your mother to Blackpool to see the lights and buy some Pms :lol:

 

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9 hours ago, durhamborn said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/223013/IM1722_adhoc.pdf

2011 it was 32% ,that doesnt include pensioners and the number is higher now.

Here is the stats for the % of housholds getting more in benefits than paying in tax,its 53.4% 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/media-centre/statements/household-taxes-and-benefits--update/index.html

If 53.4% of households take more than they give, and immigrants do the jobs Brits don't want to do (low paid work), then .....yes, immigrants will surely be very well represented in that 53.4% constituency.   Does it make sense to add 330,000 net (640,000 gross) immigrants per year to the country who are going to take more than they give? Seems like they are not bailing out the water, but actually throwing more water into the sinking boat.  This doesn't even take into account infrastructure costs to keep up with a rising population.

What's Hammond's target next year? £12Bn a month net borrowing?

Edited by canbuywontbuy

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12 hours ago, durhamborn said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/223013/IM1722_adhoc.pdf

2011 it was 32% ,that doesnt include pensioners and the number is higher now.

Here is the stats for the % of housholds getting more in benefits than paying in tax,its 53.4% 

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/media-centre/statements/household-taxes-and-benefits--update/index.html

Sorry to burst your bubble dude, but that does include pensioners who are on benefits.

Page 2, "Income related benefits include .. Pension Credit". So there will be millions of extra claimants of Housing Benefit and Council Tax benefit on the state pension in those numbers. 

According to the Daily Wail's Money section roughly half of all pensioners claim Pension Credit.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-2124687/State-pension-credit-cuts-Two-million-face-cuts-vital-benefits--point-saving.html

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21 hours ago, durhamborn said:

It seems by trying to inflate an economy where there is no point investing,no point working,and no point saving only inflates the deficit.The big corps pay no tax,there are 40% who wont work/cant work/claim and the few left in the middle are waking up and giving up.In government speak though they are "supporting the economy".

Sadly I rather think you are right......savings becoming worthless, working doesn't pay. ;)

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