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Oliver Sutton

Is the UK FUBARred?

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Have we reached a tipping point?

Is it becoming obvious the UK is now a busted flush and will never repay it's debt?

Huge trade deficit.

Huge budget deficit.

Hugely indebted banks and individuals.

Housing bubble about to burst.

Still importing around 150,000 a year from places like Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Somalia when it can't even house it's own people properly.

Still dependant on printed money.

 

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As long as the plates are kept spinning through extending debt, then this can go to infinity and beyond.  If it was just the uk playing the printy, printy game then the end would be in sight.  But, all the major players are sat at the same table so I don't feel we are anywhere near, sadly 

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2 hours ago, spunko2010 said:

Does it feel like we've reached tipping point to you? It doesn't to me. 

It just feels like no economic or societal indicator is moving in the right direction.

Money seems to be losing any meaning. Nobody is bothered much who comes into the country.

Things could change pretty quickly .

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Unfortunately, as I have said before, most people in the UK think no further than the next episode of Strictly.  Only when they lose their home, their health, or their loved one will they MAYBE pause for thought. 

 

But probably not.  Look at the case of the tragic murder of the young girl by a EU immigrant, preventable with proper police checks before moving intercountry (he had LOADS of history of violence against women).  Her family still were pro open borders.

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-29251735

http://www.standard.co.uk/news/crime/alice-gross-inquest-dont-politicise-our-daughters-death-a3287691.html 

 

So, yes, the UK is FUBARed.  Then again, it was pretty much FUBARED from 400AD to about 1650, so we have form.

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FUBARed - absolutely.  It's been FUBARed since at least 2008. 

It's all just a managed decline now. 

If you have any notion of aspiration for you or your kids, you'll emigrate - it's the only curveball left in the locker (to mix metaphors). "Where to?" will require your own research because there's no prescriptive advice to be had on this topic.

The UK political system, the EU, the brain-dead "progressives" (played like a Stradivarius by neo-liberalism), the achingly tiresome propaganda from the BBC, the  "some of my friends are Polish" remoaners who in a heartbeat would do a 180 on their views the nanosecond the EU negatively affects THEIR lives (NIMBYism on steroids), high house prices, poundshop highstreets - the UK is suffering a chronic sclerosis of its economy.

It really is a case now of what level of denial you choose to be in.

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No.

There has however been a fundamental shift over the last twenty years as the previously prosperous middle class has become steadily poorer and we have slid back towards Victorian levels of inequality.

People born in the 1980s and on assumed, very reasonably, that they would do at least as well as, if not better than, their parents.

They have found that they have done worse, are poorer, have a worse pension, and a worse house if they even own one.

All down to the lovingly embraced (by politicians of all the three centrist parties) effects of globalisation, particularly from the EU.

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So,

2 minutes ago, Frank Hovis said:

No.

There has however been a fundamental shift over the last twenty years as the previously prosperous middle class has become steadily poorer and we have slid back towards Victorian levels of inequality.

People born in the 1980s and on assumed, very reasonably, that they would do at least as well as, if not better than, their parents.

They have found that they have done worse, are poorer, have a worse pension, and a worse house if they even own one.

All down to the lovingly embraced (by politicians of all the three centrist parties) effects of globalisation, particularly from the EU.

You say no, then make a case for yes :)

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27 minutes ago, canbuywontbuy said:

So,

You say no, then make a case for yes :)

I don't think I do. The overall UK economy, that great impersonal measure, is fine and will remain so.

What has changed is that the previously prosperous middle and working classes have seen their living standards materially eroded over twenty years. It has reached the point now where if you can get benefits beyond the miserly level of JSA, and especially if you can access housing benefit, then for a now vast proportion of the population ?40% then there is little or no financial benefit from working.

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The UK economy is fundamentally sound. I just wish more of it ended up in my bank account. I would like to buy things with a branded American, European or Japanese name which ISN'T made in China. Also I wish the Power Point office twonks were paid less and talented people doing "stuff" were better recompensed. The mania for outsourcing everything will end in tears.

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Outsourcing if managed properly can save you serious dosh in certain situations because it avoids one of two things, or both:

Paying UK wages - we pay IIRC about four times that paid in India for a similar clerical job. This is not because British workers are greedy; it is because their housing costs are astronomical so they need those wages to live.

Paying public sector pensions - outsource this work and these vast payments and their accumulating deficits disappear.

If you're not saving these vast costs then outsourcing only really makes sense if your business is too small to support employing people for particular functions; such as a sole trader paying a freelance accountant to do their books.

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Is the uk f****d?  Yes, completely and unquestionably.

 

Have we reached a tipping point?   Sadly no, I feel this situation could drag on for decades with smoke and mirrors economics and managed decline.

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1 hour ago, Frank Hovis said:

I don't think I do. The overall UK economy, that great impersonal measure, is fine and will remain so.

What has changed is that the previously prosperous middle and working classes have seen their living standards materially eroded over twenty years. It has reached the point now where if you can get benefits beyond the miserly level of JSA, and especially if you can access housing benefit, then for a now vast proportion of the population ?40% then there is little or no financial benefit from working.

It certainly is an impersonal measure - an increasingly meaningless one that seems to only indicate the growth in wealth of the 1%, and also an indication of population growth. Meanwhile people's spending power weakens daily.  People put up with more and more, shuffling along in a quiet desperation.  We're supposed to cheer on GDP growth figures, yet they mean diddly squat to our own standard of living. 

The great impersonal measure of GDP might remain steady, but I don't ever see the UK going through a real recovery without some kind of system overhaul - even more than a mere "crash" can bring about.  It will take some kind of system reset and whole new philosophy to inject the UK with a decent quality of life - for example, it should be normal for those in their 20s to have the ambition and means to buy a family home, and start a family in their 20s, with one breadwinner.  That should be a common-or-garden ambition, not something that only a tiny tiny minority can achieve.

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56 minutes ago, raindog said:

We're all just frogs sitting in the pan hearing the gas burner hissing away in the background.

Well.

Thats enough cheerful thinking for one day.

This is it - wind the clock forward 10 years, add in 3 to 4 million more immigrants (net), same old high house prices (but there would have been a token "crash" of 25% falls which is a mere retracement), £3Tn+ national debt, pound/tat shops everywhere, government painted into a corner on so many things including WTC and housing debt, dual income earning essential, av. age of FTB at 40+, average house price at 8 to 10 times average salary at least, - and still people will say "it's not too bad really".  Well, if that's their ambition level, have at it! :D

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15 minutes ago, Big Orange said:

Well aren't things coming to a head with Brexit?

That's the important thing. Nothing here is unexpected Brexit is just making it obvious slightly earlier than it otherwise would have been - the exchange rate changes would have occurred at some point.

The entertaining bit will be how we handle the removal of tax credits and the monster of a structural deficit its created. 

 

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4 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

it should be normal for those in their 20s to have the ambition and means to buy a family home, and start a family in their 20s, with one breadwinner.  That should be a common-or-garden ambition, not something that only a tiny tiny minority can achieve.

It's normal among those who live in council estates up and down the land. Mate of mine dated a 37 year old grandmother - plenty of money, job+tax credit+council house.

My mate is 36. He's got a first class physics degree, an additional computer science degree, and is a reasonably well paid professional. Single, childless and renting a flat.

Another mate knows someone who is a stock broker who bought a £500K one bedroom flat in London - childless workaholic, although still young admittidly. The flat is leaking water because upstairs, there's a Nigerian family with a load of kids who are making loads of noise and basically trashing the place. They get a 3 bed flat from the council that on the open market would be worth over £1 million.

So it seems that you can have loads of kids if you go for the 'government assistance' option.

Extrapolate the scenarios above and see what happens to the demographics of the UK over the next 100 years.

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Just now, spunko2010 said:

Childless or childfree...? I guess it's all a matter of opinion.

I don't think he's too annoyed at not having kids - I'm sure he'd go for the 'child free' option too.

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5 hours ago, canbuywontbuy said:

This is it - wind the clock forward 10 years, add in 3 to 4 million more immigrants (net), same old high house prices (but there would have been a token "crash" of 25% falls which is a mere retracement), £3Tn+ national debt, pound/tat shops everywhere, government painted into a corner on so many things including WTC and housing debt, dual income earning essential, av. age of FTB at 40+, average house price at 8 to 10 times average salary at least, - and still people will say "it's not too bad really".  Well, if that's their ambition level, have at it! :D

Don't think you need to wind the clock forward for the things listed...

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