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oatbake

Imminent stock market crash?

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Not making any predictions re. a UK equity market crash because in an era of managed interest rates at virtually zero there are few alternatives.

However, any investor should be concerned about the new record price to earnings ratio. It has gone into orbit and will probably pass 40 times on the FTSE 100 from late teens in 2015. The broadsheets are so embarrassed with this nonsense number they have stopped publishing it.

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All the overvalued deflation plays are getting hit hard,long way to go down for them yet.All the undervalued inflation plays are going up,long way to go up for them.Just need the $ index to start falling hard and it will be Emerging markets and precious metals shooting up through 17 as inflation expectations shoot up.

 

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6 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Not making any predictions re. a UK equity market crash because in an era of managed interest rates at virtually zero there are few alternatives.

However, any investor should be concerned about the new record price to earnings ratio. It has gone into orbit and will probably pass 40 times on the FTSE 100 from late teens in 2015. The broadsheets are so embarrassed with this nonsense number they have stopped publishing it.

I have been feeling extremely wary about the UK market for some time.  As a precaution I have been systematically reducing holdings for the past four months; just offloaded another chunk of BP shares this morning.  The problem is knowing where best to save it?

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19 hours ago, dougless said:

I have been feeling extremely wary about the UK market for some time.  As a precaution I have been systematically reducing holdings for the past four months; just offloaded another chunk of BP shares this morning.  The problem is knowing where best to save it?

I'd probably still go with some UK  Equities as an inflationary hedge. Beyond that everything looks overpriced most especially bonds. Meanwhile this chart shows the p/e ratio this year. OK some of this can be explained away as perhaps one off losses; the dip below $50 on oil, PPI claims on banking...however, no real excuses for pharma and retail. they should have been printiing profits but they haven't.

Blast off into insanity.......

 

ftse+historic+pe+1990-2016.JPG

Edited by crashmonitor

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23 hours ago, dougless said:

The problem is knowing where best to save it?

In the market probably.

The trouble with 'getting out' is that you then have to decide when to get back in. The chances are you get both decisions wrong.

Market timing is a bit of a mug's game. Buy cheap index funds, reinvest dividends and sit tight.

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On 12/2/2016 at 9:54 AM, crashmonitor said:

I'd probably still go with some UK  Equities as an inflationary hedge. Beyond that everything looks overpriced most especially bonds. Meanwhile this chart shows the p/e ratio this year. OK some of this can be explained away as perhaps one off losses; the dip below $50 on oil, PPI claims on banking...however, no real excuses for pharma and retail. they should have been printiing profits but they haven't.

Blast off into insanity.......

 

ftse+historic+pe+1990-2016.JPG

 

Mostly down to oil/commods price crash.

FTSE subsequently UP 30%

GLEN UP 400% (example)

You didn't sell up in Feb I hope?!

 

 

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19 hours ago, Little Frank said:

 

Mostly down to oil/commods price crash.

FTSE subsequently UP 30%

GLEN UP 400% (example)

You didn't sell up in Feb I hope?!

 

 

No I was out before Christmas when prices were slightly down on today. You sound awfully like RK, I might be joining up the dots wrong here and there is the Frank Fassbender connection. Being compared to RK is a compliment btw.

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