Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 (edited) I've just been doing an EA and price check around Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire - the market really has picked up again in Pembrokeshire - shocked - picked up a little bit in Carms as well - Ceredigion and Carms prices still pretty flat but EAs reporting increasing volumes! Have this fear that we're going to follow the Japanese example, or even Ireland's - ach well, interesting times ahead. I notice that builders keep mentioning people investing in their properties 'for a pension.' No young people left where I live, so FTBs out of the picture completely - amazed the marketing is functioning without FTBs (for the time being anyway). Edited January 22, 2006 by gruffydd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portent Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 I'm a little worried about a spring bounce too. Out of interest what is convincing you the market has picked up? Volume of completed sales? Actual sale prices on nethouseprices, etc? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 22, 2006 Author Share Posted January 22, 2006 Advertised prices, conversations with trusted EAs (they do exist - really!). Same method I usually use. The market is picking up - things are looking grimmer than I expected but I'm still predicting that 2007 will be the year of the crash. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Portent Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 There are some decent EA's out there... in particular I know one very well and we have had some candid discussions in the past (not talked to him for a while). Don't forget that we are now entering the best period for house sales so it is not surprising there has been a pickup. Buyers are not all FTB's or STR's... they are also people who have to sell houses. So while there may be a pickup in the number of registered buyers there will be an almost equal pickup in the number of registered sellers. It is the FTB and BTL numbers which determine how well the market fares. Someone on here once said that markets are determined by people at the edges. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fancypants Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 nah don't worry about it too much - it's just the belated echo of the double top rebounding against the edge of Britain. With all due respect (and I have plenty for the West Walian) news takes a bit longer to reach. It's taken 2 years of "stagnation" in London for people to accept the "stagnation" here... 1 year of stagnation in the North (not even the isolated yonnerlands, but the major cities) and the message still hasn't percolated through to the masses. This probably explains why you think the crash will come in 07. In West Wales you're probably right. 2006 may well be characterised by coverage of falls in London & SE and folk in Wales and the North saying "ah it could never happen here" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMupNorth Posted January 22, 2006 Share Posted January 22, 2006 Same here in N. Yorks - all price brackets edging up, but the more expensive stuff over £400k is going mental - add an extra £50k on and upwards since a couple of months ago. The extreme's of over pricing (which we all see from time to time) are becoming more extreme as each month passes. The trouble is, it makes the extreme of a few months ago, look positively affordable ....... and then they suddenly these houses then sell. Having said that, just done my trawl of more expensive property and out of 236 properties I did notice one had been reduced by £25k from £425 to £400k, but then it was a 3 bedroomed farmhouse which needed complete refurbishment. Still seems extreme to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
since the beginning Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Could we be seeing a treble top?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patprimer74 Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I've just been doing an EA and price check around Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire - the market really has picked up again in Pembrokeshire - shocked - picked up a little bit in Carms as well... Your comment sounds as if it's come straight out of an EA's mouth! When you say 'the market really has picked up again', what do you mean? Asking prices have risen? If so, by how much, d'you think? Numbers of houses for sale have reduced or increased? Do you have any real evidence of completed sales increasing? If so, is at reduced, stable or increased prices? Does your trusted EA have an explanation for the following figures from Nationwide? Y-O-Y change to Dec 2005 - Pembrokeshire -4.0% Carmarthenshire -5.2% Sounds to me like the historic figures are unpalatable, so invented guesstimates for the future have to be used instead. p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marina Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Well, I hate to admit it, but the market here seems to have a new lease of life. Don't get me wrong, I really do hate to admit it - and it is supremely subjective - but the stuff (not new builds) at the lower end of the market is still getting sold at daft money and, and this is the worrying bit, there is not so much stuff on the market anymore. A year ago you would see roads with a For Sale sign outside every 10th house. Now it seems to be back to normal. I can only assume that - echoing that comment about the market being driven at the margins - there are enough people earning high enough salaries able to take on the big mortgages needed to keep the market functioning. I find this worrying for you youngsters. If this carries on, there will be no 'crash' - stagnation at best. I have argued against stagnation many times and still believe it is not the natural state of a market. Where this goes in the future is anyone's guess. There is a big compression in the market - 2 bed terraces at 225k and 4 bed detacheds at 275k. Having got into a situation of lunatic house prices - maybe the 10% of the population that earns the highest salaries can keep them there? For the sake of young people I hope this is not true - they are going to be renting all their lives otherwise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 The Swansea Property Post last week was very interesting in that it had the expected high number of 'New' properties on the market but, IMPO, many of these were ones that have been on the market before and have not sold, been taken off and the put on again. There was a significant number of 'reduced' prices but mostly in the not so nice areas whilst, fascinatingly, a high number of properties in the nicer parts of Swansea seemed to be advertised at even more outrageous prices. I kid you not but we are talking about South East England prices in many parts of Swansea West and the Gower whilst the local wages are amongst the poorest in the UK. I personally have no doubt that this is simply the last gasp of a market about to bust - let's see what we can get away with as, after all, any EA can make a sizeable commission from just one mug buying a hugely inflated priced property. Being Welsh myself, and proud of it, I have to say that we ain't too bright as a people when it comes to financial matters. I think that Welsh house prices will only tumble once it has become headline news in the newspapers AND on the TV News that house prices are tumbling elsewhere in the UK. Wales, undoubtedly IMPO, will be worst hit due to the ridiculous multiples of prices that has occured since about 2000/01 and the fact that when England sneezes Wales catches the 'flu. I live not far from Swansea University in 'studentland' - it used to be a nice part and the bit of Swansea that Dylan Thomas used to write about - and there has been a noticeable rise in the number of BTLs (HMOs - House in Multiple Occupation) coming on the market. I believe this is because people have bought them in order to make money from the students, etc, etc, but there are now simply too many HMOs and not enough students to go around... plus the new HMO regulations coming into force. Also, virtually all these HMOs - Victorian and Edwardian terraces - get gutted of their lovely wood doors and panelling when bought and now, with their cheap fire doors and plasterboard walls they are of little interest, certainly at current asking prices, for anyone wishing to have them as a family home. Looking generally around Swansea I have noticed numerous houses that were for sale for virtually all of last year, and many for the year before, went off the market in Nov and Dec only to return on to the market now in Jan - sometimes with the same agent, sometimes with a different agent. There is a noticeable increase in the number of properties being marketed by more than one agent with more than one 'for sale' sign in the garden. Just speaking with business people in the area - such as an EA I know who says that the market is hugely over-priced and about to crash big time, to a solicitor who tells me he is swamped with bankruptcy and reposession work - and, perhaps more importantly, to 'Joe Public' who increasingly are openly talking about over-priced houses, that house prices are about to fall dramatically in the area, etc, etc, then I think it is only a matter of time before it all falls down... but I still think we will need to see it happening in England and making headline news... Wales follows... it will not lead the HPC crash... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wriggly Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Things are looking better just around the corner in SW England: Cost drops 4% in a monthDoesn't 'house cost drops' sound so much more soothing than 'house prices go through the floor'? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lou G Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Market seems to have picked up here too. Another house I spotted that came on around 2 weeks has sold. I spoke to a couple friday night, they had been in rented 3 years waiting for prices to fall and are now buying. I think the interest rates cut coupled with the talk of rates dropping has changed public sentement. Although I think there is still an oversupply, good stock is selling quickly, poor stock is struggling a bit. We have had an offer accepted but its in a location we have always wanted to be in and have got a builder coming to view property tomorrow. If we can extend property for very little hopefully its a slight hedge against falls but we would probably live there for many years to come. (Might get cold feet yet though!!) Lou Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sign_of_the_times Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Market seems to have picked up here too. Another house I spotted that came on around 2 weeks has sold. I spoke to a couple friday night, they had been in rented 3 years waiting for prices to fall and are now buying. I think the interest rates cut coupled with the talk of rates dropping has changed public sentement. Although I think there is still an oversupply, good stock is selling quickly, poor stock is struggling a bit. We have had an offer accepted but its in a location we have always wanted to be in and have got a builder coming to view property tomorrow. If we can extend property for very little hopefully its a slight hedge against falls but we would probably live there for many years to come. (Might get cold feet yet though!!) Lou Lou which area is it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OZZIE Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 HATE TO SAY IT! But things do also apear to be selling faster in my area. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbleturbo Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 HATE TO SAY IT! But things do also apear to be selling faster in my area. Yep and the same for me in the South East area of London. A bit worrying really, but the fundementals are not looking good so I cannot see where all this activity is coming from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geek Man Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 There was a significant number of 'reduced' prices but mostly in the not so nice areas whilst, fascinatingly, a high number of properties in the nicer parts of Swansea seemed to be advertised at even more outrageous prices. I kid you not but we are talking about South East England prices in many parts of Swansea West and the Gower whilst the local wages are amongst the poorest in the UK. Hey Tulip, It's nice to hear confirmation of this. Swansea and Gower were so shocking in terms of multiples that me and Geek Woman headed off to NZ a year ago. We won't even consider buying back home unless prices fall by 30-40%, and if they don't, well I guess it's farewell for good. We rented on Gower for 380/month, all in, between 2003 and 2005, while nearby properties sold for over 500K. The rent accurately reflected low local earnings, while the Surrey prices partly reflected the fact that some houses were being sold to Surrey people . To the migrants, I say welcome to Gower, I hope you enjoy the wonderful beaches and that you find the locals warm and friendly - I am sure you will. You priced us locals out, but hey, no hard feelings - if I was in your shoes, I'd be getting out of the SE too. To second homers who don't even rent through the winter. What can I say? I wish Meibion Glyndwr were still about to give them a rather different kind of warm welcome? Sorry, but vacant houses and priced-out locals is bound to lead to some resentment. To be able to let a property sit empty for 11 months, year after year..just how much money do these people have? I hear GB is looking to raise taxes. Well may I suggest he starts with the people who have torn the heart out of villages across Wales, the SW and the Lakes by taxing rental income on second homes, whether it has been earned or not. No, I don't see Gordon doing that either - too many of his cronies in Westminster would be affected, plus the whole excess demand argument would vanish and prices would collapse as 100's of thousands of properties became available for rental or sale. Being Welsh myself, and proud of it, I have to say that we ain't too bright as a people when it comes to financial matters. I think that Welsh house prices will only tumble once it has become headline news in the newspapers AND on the TV News that house prices are tumbling elsewhere in the UK. Wales, undoubtedly IMPO, will be worst hit due to the ridiculous multiples of prices that has occured since about 2000/01 and the fact that when England sneezes Wales catches the 'flu With you again Tulip. The other class of people who took Swansea and Gower to its insane levels are the locals who have lied their way to absurd mortgages. If England sneezes, Wales wil catch flu but in Swansea it will mutate into Ebola. The reason - simply stated the ratio between salaries and house prices has been so great for so long that vast swathes of people in their 20's and 30's have given up on saving all together. Elsewhere in the UK, as prices falll, there wil be desperate FTB's jumping on to cushion it, whereas in Swansea there are so many peolple who have got debts rather than deposits that there is nothing to stop it falling right back to where it came from. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 I totally agree Geek Man - in Swansea we have this huge 'snob thing' and keeping up with the Jones is not good enough... you have to be SEEN to be doing better than the Jones... and so it goes around and around. I know so many couples who bought back in the 1990s and basically had the option to get rid of their small mortgages altogether by now but who, stupidly in my book, have MEWed to do house make-overs, buy second homes in the Med, buy HUGE 4x4s and, well, etc, etc. Every single time it has been the female half of the couple pushing for this as she herself has been goaded on by her female friends... It is completely nuts. Let's face it, a few years ago a couple in Swansea would have considered a house worth about 60K to be a stretch on local wages - now those same houses are being priced at 200K or more they have somehow convinced themselves that this is all perfectly normal. I think Swansea is going to be economically ruined come the housing crash. I think loads of small businesses will go to the wall and that a vast swathe of Swansea and West Wales will become an economic desert. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrashIsUnderWay Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Yeah, where I am too. Its incredible. EVERYTHING has sold!!! There isn't even a 1 bed flat left! All new builds have been snapped up and people are even buying canal boats, putting them on wheels, and making them into 'mobile homes'. I fear the worst. Perhaps I need to examine it more closely - perhaps a FIFTEEN TIMES daily trawl thru the E'A's will improve the picture... :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJP Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Things are looking better just around the corner in SW England: Cost drops 4% in a monthDoesn't 'house cost drops' sound so much more soothing than 'house prices go through the floor'? Looks like the SW has picked up considerably at the start of the year, I'm afraid. Loads of places have suddenly sold. However, there seems to have been a real flood of property put on the market since the new year, so I expect that the up-turn will be short-lived. Of course, we're going to have to put up with some smug articles in the press for a couple of months in the meantime. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Masked Tulip Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Btw, there is another thread on here today about cheap plumbers - when you read the article it is about London and the South East being swamped with plumbers and that rates are falling from all the competition. Here in South Wales try calling a plumber - you will be lucky to get hold of one and if you can then they will charge you a fortune for turning up at your doorstep. What I am saying is that the influx of Polish plumbers et al, like stagnating and falling HPs, in London and the South East has not yet reached West Wales - it takes time for the ripples to spread out but spread out they will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bemused Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Looks like the SW has picked up considerably at the start of the year, I'm afraid. Loads of places have suddenly sold. However, there seems to have been a real flood of property put on the market since the new year, so I expect that the up-turn will be short-lived. Of course, we're going to have to put up with some smug articles in the press for a couple of months in the meantime. I was reporting 2/3 months ago - the "crash" has been called too early by this site. IMO you have at least 12-18 months to go - I won't bother to repeat my comments on the obsessive - their up - no their down price watch mania that goes on here every few months. Nor the govt, media are in collusion lests have a focussed leaflet campaign rubbish neither .... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 23, 2006 Author Share Posted January 23, 2006 The Pembrokeshire housing market appears to be on the rise again because of LNG. However, most of the workers will not settle locally - most are contractors, etc., so the sooner the facilities are constructed and the contractors have returned home, the better - I suspect the ultimate crash down here will be a great deal worse than elsewhere because of the weakness of the underlying economy - I agree with Tulip on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patprimer74 Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 The Pembrokeshire housing market appears to be on the rise again ... You keep repeating this vague phrase, Gruff. How about some supporting evidence? If such exists. p Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clouseau Posted January 23, 2006 Share Posted January 23, 2006 Either dead cat bounce, OR, part of an inevitable & IMO escalating drift of boomers downsizing & moving from the SE to nicer, more rural areas (& looking for maximum bang-for-buck) - the wealthy ones bale out for abroad, the rest do the best they can in UK.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 Thank God January is nearly over - by the way, what are the official stats saying about this part of the world - Hometrack, Nationwide? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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