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Reduced rentals barometer of BTL fear

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Haven't looked at rentals on rightmove since august... Half of the listings have reduced rent. I've never seen that in years of renting. Something is afoot....

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Rentals have been slow for a few years.

A few things at play. One is rents are expensive. Second is that theres vast supply.

UK LL face their biggest shock when the HB + TCs are stopped for non-UK nationals. You can bet on that.

Poof! ~2-3m rentals come up for elapse, or rather have the rent stopped being paid.

 

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3 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Rentals have been slow for a few years.

A few things at play. One is rents are expensive. Second is that theres vast supply.

UK LL face their biggest shock when the HB + TCs are stopped for non-UK nationals. You can bet on that.

Poof! ~2-3m rentals come up for elapse, or rather have the rent stopped being paid.

 

Why do you think that will happen? And when...?

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When I looked in aug we struggled to find 2 bed house in BN13 ish for less than a grand. Now there's a dozen for £900 or less.

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I'm noticing this in Kent, Folkestone, Canterbury, Ashford area. Rents shot up the last 24 months and now they seem to be sliding back down. Typical 3 bed was reaching 950-1000pcm, now down to 800-900. Looking good. Im hoping it keeps up so I can say no to next year's rent rise.

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I am also seeing rents falling hard in my small market town in rural North Yorkshire. I have never seen anything like it in 15 or so years of living here.

I reckon some of the P118ers will get a bit of a rude awakening when they try to increase rents. I have only had one landlord ever try to increase my rent. Of course, he backtracked pretty quickly as soon as I asked how much notice I needed to give... It's hard to see how people can afford more rent! With the changes to housing benefit, Brexit, increases in inflation etc, I just really can't see where the potential for increasing rents is going to come from! and with Basel III yet to take effect, and possible future rate rises to come!

I almost feel sorry for the P118 sort. They should be heading for the lifeboats but they just don't see what's coming. It's going to be a brutal lesson for some of them...

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I live in a large flat in a nice part of North London with several others (all graduates, with good jobs).  

All three of my flatmates are preparing to leave - one is Danish and heading back to Copenhagen, one is Swedish and heading to Australia, one is Latvian and moving to Stockholm with her boyfriend.  They all have good jobs, collectively pay a lot in tax and take nothing out.  But they notice the fall in the pound, and they feel the bad vibes following Brexit, and they just reckon they'll have a nicer life somewhere else.

If this is a microcosm of what's happening, there's going to be a real and noticeable fall in population.  And with it the associated demand for rental property in London and across the UK.  Also, I am noticing more job vacancies in shops in Camden and more 'to let' signs locally.  I don't think I'd want to be a landlord these days.  

As others have pointed out, it will be very interesting to see how things play out over the next few years.

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Unfortunately as long as the UK gives out housing benefit and tax credits without prior contributions it wont stop the less needed migrants. We'll lose the skilled people like you mention but not stop those (both EU and non-EU) with very high birthrates (thus welfare claims) in "self-employment" or part time low paid jobs. The worst for that is generally non EU anyway.

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11 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Why do you think that will happen? And when...?

Euer benefits are costing a few billion. We dont have to pay them for FOM hoops. Add to that a lot of EU 'citizens'  claiming in the uk are somalis and the lke.

Tcs are going for uk are euers.

HB benefit rules can be rewritten to exlude non nationals.

The UK needs to stop running larger current account and budget drficits. Tcs and nonuk HB contribute to both.

Ive no inside info but i can see where money is going and  can be saved with little or positive political fallout.

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4 hours ago, spyguy said:

Euer benefits are costing a few billion. We dont have to pay them for FOM hoops. Add to that a lot of EU 'citizens'  claiming in the uk are somalis and the lke.

Tcs are going for uk are euers.

HB benefit rules can be rewritten to exlude non nationals.

The UK needs to stop running larger current account and budget drficits. Tcs and nonuk HB contribute to both.

Ive no inside info but i can see where money is going and  can be saved with little or positive political fallout.

Totally agree.

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19 hours ago, Ballyk said:

I live in a large flat in a nice part of North London with several others (all graduates, with good jobs).  

All three of my flatmates are preparing to leave - one is Danish and heading back to Copenhagen, one is Swedish and heading to Australia, one is Latvian and moving to Stockholm with her boyfriend.  They all have good jobs, collectively pay a lot in tax and take nothing out.  But they notice the fall in the pound, and they feel the bad vibes following Brexit, and they just reckon they'll have a nicer life somewhere else.

If this is a microcosm of what's happening, there's going to be a real and noticeable fall in population.  And with it the associated demand for rental property in London and across the UK.  Also, I am noticing more job vacancies in shops in Camden and more 'to let' signs locally.  I don't think I'd want to be a landlord these days.  

As others have pointed out, it will be very interesting to see how things play out over the next few years.

Yes, you're right. I live in a 2 bedder in North East and I'm seeing what your' seeing. My job means I travel around London and the vibe amongst those YProfessionals who can move elsewhere, will do.

If demand falls, the BTLs can raise rents and it won't make a blind bit of difference. Interestin times ahead.

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18 hours ago, Ballyk said:

I live in a large flat in a nice part of North London with several others (all graduates, with good jobs).  

All three of my flatmates are preparing to leave - one is Danish and heading back to Copenhagen, one is Swedish and heading to Australia, one is Latvian and moving to Stockholm with her boyfriend.  They all have good jobs, collectively pay a lot in tax and take nothing out.  But they notice the fall in the pound, and they feel the bad vibes following Brexit, and they just reckon they'll have a nicer life somewhere else.

If this is a microcosm of what's happening, there's going to be a real and noticeable fall in population.  And with it the associated demand for rental property in London and across the UK.  Also, I am noticing more job vacancies in shops in Camden and more 'to let' signs locally.  I don't think I'd want to be a landlord these days.  

As others have pointed out, it will be very interesting to see how things play out over the next few years.

Have they all decided on this since Brexit (i.e. was it Brexit that made them decide to leave rather than factors before the vote)?

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2 hours ago, fru-gal said:

Have they all decided on this since Brexit (i.e. was it Brexit that made them decide to leave rather than factors before the vote)?

Yes, pretty much.  It seems strange to me, but it's almost like they have taken the Brexit vote personally.  One of them said that she thought all pro-Brexit voters essentially didn't want them (Europeans) to be here, which I told her was ridiculous.  But I do believe they've picked up on a real sense of antipathy towards Europeans, which I find very strange in diverse London - they certainly don't stand out as noticeably 'foreign'.  

They all frequently go back to their home countries and other European countries, and they just feel more welcome / comfortable there.  And they can now get better paying jobs there, so I don't really blame them for planning to leave.

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9 hours ago, Ballyk said:

Yes, pretty much.  It seems strange to me, but it's almost like they have taken the Brexit vote personally.  One of them said that she thought all pro-Brexit voters essentially didn't want them (Europeans) to be here, which I told her was ridiculous.  But I do believe they've picked up on a real sense of antipathy towards Europeans, which I find very strange in diverse London - they certainly don't stand out as noticeably 'foreign'.  

They all frequently go back to their home countries and other European countries, and they just feel more welcome / comfortable there.  And they can now get better paying jobs there, so I don't really blame them for planning to leave.

Really?

The UK is probably the most welcoming, tolerant country in Europe.

If yourre black then you'll have the police on your case in 70% of EU countries.

As my Italian partner poitns out when she watches stuff like Masterchef or X factor - If Italy had masterchef then Heston Blumenthal would be kicked out at the early stages for someone who cannot cook.

Ive been to most European countries on work. Only Nlands and Sweden comes close to having an open, meritocratic work culture.

Or, as Ozzes say, Letting people have a a 'Fair go'.

Although I like Italy - well, some places - its not a place I choose to work. Its bent, sewn up by insiders. My Italian friends admit the same.

Not wishing to turn this into a list of crap countries:

Spain - worse than Italy.

Greece - no economy. ever. Its a 3rd world, always has been.

Germany - great if you're a german. But grossly overegulated and rules base. You need 2 generations of family to suss it.

France - great if your a public sector worker.

Norway - cold and oilly. Maybe whne the oil runs out.

Denmark - veneer of niceness, under written by a grossly overleveaged private sector.

Belgium - yes ....

East of Berlin - think UK in the 1930s.

Balkans - puncy/gangsterlyblood feuds.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Ballyk said:

Yes, pretty much.  It seems strange to me, but it's almost like they have taken the Brexit vote personally.  One of them said that she thought all pro-Brexit voters essentially didn't want them (Europeans) to be here, which I told her was ridiculous.  But I do believe they've picked up on a real sense of antipathy towards Europeans, which I find very strange in diverse London - they certainly don't stand out as noticeably 'foreign'.  

They all frequently go back to their home countries and other European countries, and they just feel more welcome / comfortable there.  And they can now get better paying jobs there, so I don't really blame them for planning to leave.

Are you extrapolating London to the whole country?

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3 minutes ago, Si1 said:

Are you extrapolating London to the whole country?

Of the EUers - mainly EEers - I know in my Northern home town.

None are self sufficient or high skilled.

They all took to tax credits like a duck to water. Hardly surprising, as in work benefits are the sort of insane economic policy in place before the USSR collapsed.

I chat to them and point out TCs are going for EUers first, then UKers.

'But we could not afford to stay' most say.

They cannot grasp why the UK tax payer would  object to paying out 1400/month to someone From Krackow working in Aldi for 16h/week.

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In my city there appears to be more choice of property within my budget than a month or 2 ago. I just it down to the fact that it's October and people are beginning to budget for Christmas rather than move. Come December I reckon there will be more Letting Agents offering 'half price fees' or 'no fee' as their landord clients lean on them to find tenants.

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6 hours ago, spyguy said:

Really?

The UK is probably the most welcoming, tolerant country in Europe.

If yourre black then you'll have the police on your case in 70% of EU countries.

As my Italian partner poitns out when she watches stuff like Masterchef or X factor - If Italy had masterchef then Heston Blumenthal would be kicked out at the early stages for someone who cannot cook.

Ive been to most European countries on work. Only Nlands and Sweden comes close to having an open, meritocratic work culture.

Or, as Ozzes say, Letting people have a a 'Fair go'.

Although I like Italy - well, some places - its not a place I choose to work. Its bent, sewn up by insiders. My Italian friends admit the same.

Not wishing to turn this into a list of crap countries:

Spain - worse than Italy.

Greece - no economy. ever. Its a 3rd world, always has been.

Germany - great if you're a german. But grossly overegulated and rules base. You need 2 generations of family to suss it.

France - great if your a public sector worker.

Norway - cold and oilly. Maybe whne the oil runs out.

Denmark - veneer of niceness, under written by a grossly overleveaged private sector.

Belgium - yes ....

East of Berlin - think UK in the 1930s.

Balkans - puncy/gangsterlyblood feuds.

 

 

For someone with such poor typing skills, you assessment of European working cultures seems pretty spot on. 

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19 hours ago, Ballyk said:

Yes, pretty much.  It seems strange to me, but it's almost like they have taken the Brexit vote personally.  

I have noticed that and it is weird, I am 2nd generation half Lithuanian  and being of North London stock my social circle is Greek, Turkish, Asian, West Indian of similar parentage.

What we agree on is there is an air of arrogance about the post 1990 Eastern Europeans that jarred with our fully integrated families. A real sense of entitlement that was unfounded and quite unpleasant.  I also disagree with the notion that a large proportion were skilled it was tiny compared to say the Indian community.

On a personal note they split our community to the extent that assets my father's generation sweated to buy ( a country house in Hampshire, a social centre in Ladbroke Grove) were destroyed by this new wave so they no longer exist. Many are Russian purporting to be Lithuanians. It is the same in the Polish and Lativian communities.

I think they should take it personally because our country can do without the majority of them

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9 hours ago, Si1 said:

Are you extrapolating London to the whole country?

I suspect it is very real in East Cambridgeshire and for the reasons listed in my other post not without cause

Oh and now Lithuanians from a tiny base are No 6 in the criminal league table with Poland topping it. Not all but many of the new wave Eastern Europeans post 1990 are scum

Edited by Greg Bowman

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Nah mate, so what if August to September is peak season for Rental markets. Markets down? You lie. You're wrong man. Nothing is happening. S.24 will have no effect.

#JustRaiseRentsInnit

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Mate works for a engineering firm in the town (office bod ) just came back from 2 weeks holiday and instant change in the factory staff , new staff taking on and large majority now English says its gone from 100% EE to 75% EE /25% English 

EE guys he speaks to are of the kind who have come over to earn money , work all overtime available and live in cheap house shares with aim of returning to home nation once got enough cash to buy house outright back home. 

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5 hours ago, Nabby81 said:

Mate works for a engineering firm in the town (office bod ) just came back from 2 weeks holiday and instant change in the factory staff , new staff taking on and large majority now English says its gone from 100% EE to 75% EE /25% English 

EE guys he speaks to are of the kind who have come over to earn money , work all overtime available and live in cheap house shares with aim of returning to home nation once got enough cash to buy house outright back home. 

If only there was a country we could go to, to do that.

I suppose, if the BOE don't bother supporting the pound, there soon will be! :lol:

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