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Peter Hun

First UK house price fall in four years - Halifax

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UK house prices fell by 0.5% in Q3 2016 – the first quarterly decline seen in four years, Halifax’s House Price Index has revealed.

IHS Markit, which acts as administrator for the index, said London “stood out as the regional underperformer”, where prices fell by 2.5%  the first reduction seen in the capital in six years.

Prices in Yorkshire and the Humber also dropped by 3.9%, as five in 12 UK regions saw house price falls.

Council-of-Mortgage-Lenders-103x76.jpg

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, largely attributed the falls to Brexit.

He said: “The UK’s vote to leave the EU has been accompanied by a clear cooling of the housing market.

“Average prices fell in the three months to September, in marked contrast to the robust growth seen in the first half of the year, registering the first quarterly decline in four years.

“Sentiment among homeowners regarding property values slumped in July but has since rallied somewhat, though remains weaker than at any time since the height of the eurozone debt crisis in 2012.”

He added: “This time, it’s ‘Brexit’ rather than ‘Grexit’ that has caused anxiety to spike in the housing market, so the future trajectory of prices will be very much determined by which path the government decides to choose in taking the country away from the EU, and how bumpy the negotiating route is.

“Any negative impact from Brexit worries will be mitigated by strong fundamentals, including a shortage of housing, high employment and record low interest rates, but IHS Markit’s base scenario is one whereby prices fall by 3% in 2017.”

 

http://www.mortgageintroducer.com/first-uk-house-price-fall-four-years/#.V_4jkOArLR0

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Edited by Tapori

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Made a few offers and getting frustrated agents telling me that it was the only one but vendors insisting on march + 10%

 

not selling though aside from crazy Nr23jr/nr4/nr1 which feels like the last ripple out of London money.

 

for example one street I am interested in has a last sold march 365k£.    New ones listed 450 and now after a few months they are 400/410 I next round of reductions may well take out last sold price if/when finally sold.

pressure is off now buyers in no hurry outside London money areas.

 

winter is going to be interesting

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28 minutes ago, Fromage Frais said:

Made a few offers and getting frustrated agents telling me that it was the only one but vendors agents, mortgage advisors and bankers  insisting on march + 10%

 

 

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I would say it all boils down to the lenders and how vulnerable they are feeling....when they decide it is time to pull the reigns in....less debt  = less money = lower prices.;)

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16 hours ago, Fromage Frais said:

Made a few offers and getting frustrated agents telling me that it was the only one but vendors insisting on march + 10%

 

not selling though aside from crazy Nr23jr/nr4/nr1 which feels like the last ripple out of London money.

 

for example one street I am interested in has a last sold march 365k£.    New ones listed 450 and now after a few months they are 400/410 I next round of reductions may well take out last sold price if/when finally sold.

pressure is off now buyers in no hurry outside London money areas.

 

winter is going to be interesting

My experience was to buy and build in an expected loss for the following few years. Paint it black for the agent and sit and wait once an offer was refused then wait again. The vendor would sell to someone else and that then falls through, the snow starts falling, the house is empty and bang 40% off. So in your example I was paying £250k. 

It is easy for agents to forget that when people stop buying....they really do stop. And only those who need to move do so. I gave my example previously on a super flat overlooking the park bought by the previous owner for £210k and marketed (repo) 3 years later for the same 2008. Then dropped to £170k in 2009 and I offered £150k because I loved the location and comparables were still £200k (luckily refused). Then I bought it at an auction £122k...which was the 2001 price.  Value now is £200k (to some numpty) but I would estimate real value about £140k  

I will not buy again - and I appreciate when it's your home then other factors kick in - but for me a price fall is not enough. A price fall plus a build in for further falls before taking the step. Once things do drop then the mentality changes to "Why buy when it will be cheaper next year?" 

What 118'ers have never done is bought value, never used cash, never added any real value and never sold. For that they will pay and the market is way over where it should be.  

Once these prices do fall then unlike shares which can be sold in an hour, houses will really plummet forced by those who really need to sell. It's a race for the bottom and once they get there I used to convince them the bottom was another £20k away. The deal always made sweeter if buying from a novice 'business entrepreneur' which almost all of mine were. 

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19 hours ago, LondonIsFallingDown said:

No doubt the Bank of England is already holding an emergency meeting in response to this.

Strange how forward guidance is in short supply. They no doubt knock the last 25bp off in November's announcement.

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This is welcome news, but bears no relation to Radio 4s information this morning, it talked about a pick up in the housing market, and interviewed a chap from the RICS who of course has no vested interest whatsoever. He talked about the things that had been done to help "underpin" the market, as if it needed to be propped up.

There is a massive problem, years of this inflationary nonsense has not only priced out 2 generations, but it has created a phoney sense of entitlement amongst far more, and this is the world over. I think this will run much further myself, and create a far bigger social disaster before it does unwind - I hope I'm wrong.

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2 hours ago, wsn03 said:

This is welcome news, but bears no relation to Radio 4s information this morning, it talked about a pick up in the housing market, and interviewed a chap from the RICS who of course has no vested interest whatsoever. He talked about the things that had been done to help "underpin" the market, as if it needed to be propped up.

There is a massive problem, years of this inflationary nonsense has not only priced out 2 generations, but it has created a phoney sense of entitlement amongst far more, and this is the world over. I think this will run much further myself, and create a far bigger social disaster before it does unwind - I hope I'm wrong.

I'll let you know what they say

 

@BBCr4today Is it a editorial or personal decision to ramp house prices despite there being a dangerous mega bubble ?

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Just saw BBC news and they were pushing the RICS announcement that things had picked up.

 

Doesnt anyone remembering them saying things were getting bad ?

 

They failed to mention RICS said london prices would drop....

 

 

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I actually heard the RICS announcement late last night (on the World Service rather bizarrely) RICS must have brought it out at lightening speed as soon as the Halifax figures were released and well out of normal office working hours, obviously desperate to downplay, counter and dismiss the news from the Halifax.

I'd always thought that RICS were one of the more professional, respectable and impartial bodies associated with the property market but they've proved themselves on numerous occasions now to be biased and blatant rampers, possibly even more so than any of the EA bodies.

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'Forward Guidance'. You have to laugh. What was it Mervyn King said about the 2008 crash . . . nobody could have seen it coming. They can't even do hindsight. (Backward guidance?)

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We need bigger drops. In areas where normal people live. 

If Clapham lost 10 pc in a year, or Tooting. Then that would be something of note.

Edited by 999house

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2 minutes ago, 999house said:

We need bigger drops. In areas where normal people live. 

If Clapham lost 10 pc in a year, or Tooting. Then that would be something of note.

I've been to both of those places...Normal people no longer live there.

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