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Crumbless

Govt expected to announce shift from QE

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A major shift in economic policy away from quantitative easing is expected to be announced in this year's Autumn Statement, according to reports. Theresa May is said to be backing a break away from the monetary policy pursued by George Osborne and a move towards more fiscal measures, such as tax and spending.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/government-expected-to-announce-major-shift-in-economic-policy/

Bye bye Carney

Edited by Crumbless

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Just words, I don't believe previous chancellors wanted to do QE either, but it was the easiest of the options when things start going to the potty. The difference is they now have QE competition from the IMF, Japan, China, etc. Also the debt is larger, we've got NIRP and ZIRP, ordinary people are struggling more than ever, house prices are even higher, so to turn off the tap... well it's just too late to do that. One does not simply end QE.

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49 minutes ago, Crumbless said:

A major shift in economic policy away from quantitative easing is expected to be announced in this year's Autumn Statement, according to reports. Theresa May is said to be backing a break away from the monetary policy pursued by George Osborne and a move towards more fiscal measures, such as tax and spending.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/government-expected-to-announce-major-shift-in-economic-policy/

Bye bye Carney

About bloody time.

They must know collapse is coming.

Or worse ( for them ) still....revolution.

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Id point out that Hammond is stressing investment in infrastructre rather than plain public sector spend, which in Gorddies world was just taking on ~4M extra public sector clipboard holders.

I would hazard they may even try bond tied to specific projects or groups of projects.

What do I think? Get shot of most LAs, pay foreign (not Balfour FFS!) to carry out a range of infrastructure, centred around transport and energy.

We dont need new hosipials - half of which are full of OAPs bed blocking.

Or schools - putting s top to migrants benefits will see a lo of demand go poof!

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39 minutes ago, fru-gal said:

Bloody hell. It's like we've entered the Twilight Zone or something. Is May a secret HPCer groupie :P:wub:?

I think May, like a lot of people, have discovered the UK has been a patsy to technocrats and traders.

Edited by spyguy

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2 hours ago, Errol said:

So massive tax cuts for anyone earning less than £50,000 then? That would be a better stimulus.

It would certainly stimulate rent rises. You see thats the problem with our rentier economy - its impossible to raise the living standards of "normal working people" because you just increase their ability to pay rent which will soak up all the gains.

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Sounds like they are worried about the pound slipping too much and possibly entering 'currency crisis' territory, so they are trying to talk up the prospects of a policy shit EDIT: shift.

In reality, not going to happen.  They will at the very least maintain QE at it's current £435bn (I think) level.  They need it to keep interest rates low and provide the Gilts market with support to keep their own 'borrowing' (who am I kidding, the QE'd bonds will never be redeemed) costs low.

If anything, we'll see even more QE.  What they DO, not what they say.

Edited by Sour Mash
spellung

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1 hour ago, fru-gal said:

Bloody hell. It's like we've entered the Twilight Zone or something. Is May a secret HPCer groupie :P:wub:?

Doubtful, just another 1% stooge saying the right things.  Cameron was making all the right HPC noises after getting elected 2010, and look how that turned out.

Expect more of the same.

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8 minutes ago, Sibley's Love Child said:

Doubtful, just another 1% stooge saying the right things.  Cameron was making all the right HPC noises after getting elected 2010, and look how that turned out.

Expect more of the same.

Looks like we have a winner folks.

It's almost like it's party conference time.... 

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54 minutes ago, spyguy said:

Id point out that Hammond is stressing investment in infrastructre rather than plain public sector spend, which in Gorddies world was just taking on ~4M extra public sector clipboard holders.

I would hazard they may even try bond tied to specific projects or groups of projects.

What do I think? Get shot of most LAs, pay foreign (not Balfour FFS!) to carry out a range of infrastructure, centred around transport and energy.

We dont need new hosipials - half of which are full of OAPs bed blocking.

Or schools - putting s top to migrants benefits will see a lo of demand go poof!

I wouldn't be surprised if the Tories basically roll out a version of People's QE as suggested by Richard Murphy of the Taxresearch blog; http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2015/08/19/qe-did-not-work-thats-why-we-need-peoples-qe/. The Tories seem to nick a lot of Labour/Lib Dem/UKIP/Green ideas and adjust them to make them sound like their own.

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22 minutes ago, Sibley's Love Child said:

Doubtful, just another 1% stooge saying the right things.  Cameron was making all the right HPC noises after getting elected 2010, and look how that turned out.

Expect more of the same.

Hmm. Not sure. Cameron is a different kettle of fish to TM. I think TM is more old skool Tory and perhaps has some old fashioned opinions about money and finance, debts etc. The Tories have also had a major wake up call with the Brexit result, not to mention the election of Corbyn. I think they are perhaps realizing that the status quo was alienating a lot of people and they better make changes sooner rather than later. Not a big fan of Corbyn but not convinced Corbyn is as unpopular as the press make out either...

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1 minute ago, fru-gal said:

Hmm. Not sure. Cameron is a different kettle of fish to TM. I think TM is more old skool Tory and perhaps has some old fashioned opinions about money and finance, debts etc. The Tories have also had a major wake up call with the Brexit result, not to mention the election of Corbyn. I think they are perhaps realizing that the status quo was alienating a lot of people and they better make changes sooner rather than later. Not a big fan of Corbyn but not convinced Corbyn is as unpopular as the press make out either...

I hope they have reliased that the current status quo is unstable and very dangerous for many people.

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Like most here I don't necessarily expect any positive policy change to actually come out of this, but unless TM finds some reason to say she was wrong or things have changed, I reckon Carnage is for the high jump.

Better start packing chump, and don't let the door smack you on the back of the head on your way out. On second thoughts, please do. Repeatedly.

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I think they'll go for the jugular over the next year.

With Brexit dominating and serving as a distraction and May having a honeymoon period and being  a more "One-Nation." Tory rather than the Posh Lot, expect the major changes to economic policy to happen over the next year. The conference, as boring as Hammond was, is setting the PR spin for turning the fiscal profligacy towards a firmer footing with productivity key in other areas.

Carney is being primed to do what has to be done and raise IR and tighten other areas, or he's defo out the door; Ignore "Independent" posturing from him and his crew. Incidentally the threads on here that have lined to BoE reports, point to them knowing sh*t needs to change and now we have May and Hammond seem determined to do this.

It's a win-win; if they don't put an end to the credit fueled, asset price scam growth, it will eventually end in lower tax receipts as people spend less and Britain declines in economic influence.

- Or they could sh*t themselves, panic, cut IR's and deliver more QE, more HPI, more cuts to investment in vital infrastructure cos I don't fu*in know; It's been a fukd up year.

Edited by Tapori

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2 hours ago, TheCountOfNowhere said:

I hope they have reliased that the current status quo is unstable and very dangerous for many people.

TM defo gets this: She's older than Cammy and isn't in this for the shallow fame and career - She really believes in something and that Gov can lead big change and it sure as hell isn't neo-liberalism MK2.

Her mention of following Atlee and Thatcher - 2 very distinct and completely opposite Leaders - shows where she wants to place herself; She defo doesn't want to be remembered like Cameron shuffling off after clownishly shooting himself in the face.

Weirdly, I feel she'll do what has to be done economy wise and that she won't bottle it but she'll end up losing her leadership (Tory Ruthlessness as PR and neo-liberal uppeer classes sh*t themsleves as the economy experiences a turbulent correction and a big HPC)

or the next GE (Hung Parliament) as the corrections take place. She will be attacked by the neo-liberal cross-party/media/business establishment who desperately yearn for Blair/Cameron-esque pricks to return

And I absolutely hate tories and right-wingers. But hey, that's my nonsense opinion.

 

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Can anyone explain how Hammond's reported approach, ie to ignore the deficit and spend in infrastructrure etc, actually differs from Osborne's?, Simply whose pockets the taxpayer loot ends up in?

I must say I find it somewhat fanciful that as suggested the following will happen in any significant fashion without some pretty tasty tax rises or currency downside:

Immigration reduction

Raising interest rates

Ignoring the deficit.

 

Edit as has been noted above, Cam and Ozzy made some pretty good noises prior to taking office. In the end, Ozzy out-Browned Brown imo.

 

 

Edited by The Knimbies who say No

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The deficit is not an issue if you use it to invest in key areas to bring in revenue and increase productivity in the long term.

 Sustainable growth is never achieved solely through individual philanthropy; It requires both public and private sectors to compliment each other; At the moment we have the worst of both worlds with a bloated public sector made up of D-Grade Middle class grad managers  and incompetent remnants of Gen.X with a private sector encouraged to routinely prove that Marx was right in his critique of them as "Parasites."

If you have a house and it has a leaky roof or poor insulation, if you borrow to invest you'll save money over the long term. We are not Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

Immigration is needed; The question is what type of immigration!

I want noble winning scientists helping us develop new tech and medical advances. Not foreign labour that is exploited by rich priks to provide sh*t jobs with poor conditions.

Interest rates will have to rise if the market keeps bashing the pound. Eventually,

 

 

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16 minutes ago, Tapori said:

The deficit is not an issue if you use it to invest in key areas to bring in revenue and increase productivity in the long term.

 Sustainable growth is never achieved solely through individual philanthropy; It requires both public and private sectors to compliment each other; At the moment we have the worst of both worlds with a bloated public sector made up of D-Grade Middle class grad managers  and incompetent remnants of Gen.X with a private sector encouraged to routinely prove that Marx was right in his critique of them as "Parasites."

If you have a house and it has a leaky roof or poor insulation, if you borrow to invest you'll save money over the long term. We are not Zimbabwe or Venezuela.

Immigration is needed; The question is what type of immigration!

I want noble winning scientists helping us develop new tech and medical advances. Not foreign labour that is exploited by rich priks to provide sh*t jobs with poor conditions.

Interest rates will have to rise if the market keeps bashing the pound. Eventually,

 

 

Wouldn't argue with any of that, but what makes anyone suppose this productive investment will be happening in future? Hammond has a massive VI in the property game; May has a blotted copy book on immigration; both were integral players in the upper echelons throughout the Cameron administration. If they felt strongly about money being pi$$ed up a wall maybe we might have heard something from them previously.

We'll see, won't we...

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33 minutes ago, Tapori said:

Immigration is needed; The question is what type of immigration!
 

Immigration is needed at expotentially increasing levels...it's a f**king pyramid scam.

No one seems to be payig attention.

 

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