Crashing pound, do they raise interest rates

[frankief]

Bl**dy site, I spent 15 minutes typing a long reply to CICA's post and it's vanished.

How do you end your hpc membership? Is there a button I can press?

[TheCountOfNowhere]

5 hours ago, evetsm said:

all this country's wealth is in houses, raise rates and that goes belly up. we are trapped. 

Pretend wealth being protected for the benefit of the pretend rich.

This pretend wealth is stopping the UK economy.

Bring down housing "wealth" by 50% and peolpe have more money for the real economy.

The "wealth" is a ponzi/pyramid scheme and as such totally unsustainable.

[cica]

4 minutes ago, frankief said:

Bl**dy site, I spent 15 minutes typing a long reply to CICA's post and it's vanished.

How do you end your hpc membership? Is there a button I can press?

What was the gist? No doubt I annoyed you :-)

[crashmonitor]

At the end the of the day for most people there is no place like home...Australians would think the same. If you live in Canada or remote Aus walking would be alien and you would have nothing to miss. The Uk is a microcosm of everything and I fear depression would set in if I had space but no stimulus.  Central London is a microcosm of urban everything and that is why we can't compete with foreign buyers because  it's probably the most stimulating environment in the world  if urban floats your boat.

Edited October 6, 2016 by crashmonitor

[jo_gian]

My brain tells me we will do a hard brexit, close down borders and quit the single market and they will keep up the value of the pound by raising interest rates. Hence we will be the first country in the western world solving the problems we have since 2008.

Everything points to this direction and I have no other explanation for all the talks and while talk is cheap they just can't lie that much. Also May jumped in the polls, so I think they will just do it...

[crashmonitor]

26 minutes ago, jo_gian said:

My brain tells me we will do a hard brexit, close down borders and quit the single market and they will keep up the value of the pound by raising interest rates. Hence we will be the first country in the western world solving the problems we have since 2008.

Everything points to this direction and I have no other explanation for all the talks and while talk is cheap they just can't lie that much. Also May jumped in the polls, so I think they will just do it...

Indeed corrections and hard landings eventually revive economies and help them to flourish in the longer term. The Establishment will, of course, resist resets as they control the assets and are unwilling to give the next generation a chance. Only really Clarke and Major in recent years have bitten the bullet and set up a dream scenario for their followers but nobody gets credit for being the one to bite the bullet.

Edited October 6, 2016 by crashmonitor

[Crumbless]

35 minutes ago, jo_gian said:

My brain tells me we will do a hard brexit, close down borders and quit the single market and they will keep up the value of the pound by raising interest rates. Hence we will be the first country in the western world solving the problems we have since 2008.

Everything points to this direction and I have no other explanation for all the talks and while talk is cheap they just can't lie that much. Also May jumped in the polls, so I think they will just do it...

Raising interest rates will get the priced out on her side as well as pensioners.

Does seem as if there is something in the air.

 

[rollover]

The pound is crashing again

Sterling is diving against the dollar again on Thursday lunchtime in London. The currency slumped sharply around 11.30 a.m. BST. The fall appears to be more about the dollar's strength than the pound's weakness. However, the pound is also falling against the euro, suggesting fears over what a "Hard Brexit" means for the economy persist.

[slawek]

32 minutes ago, jo_gian said:

My brain tells me we will do a hard brexit, close down borders and quit the single market and they will keep up the value of the pound by raising interest rates. Hence we will be the first country in the western world solving the problems we have since 2008.

Everything points to this direction and I have no other explanation for all the talks and while talk is cheap they just can't lie that much. Also May jumped in the polls, so I think they will just do it...

Dropping pound is a soft default vs the rest of the world. Why would they prefer a hard default and HPC triggered by raising rates?

GBPUSD is below 1.27 now. 

[adamLancs]

They will look stupid and clueless if they raise rates near term after just lowering them. We all know they are both of those things, but it is more important to them that they keep up pretenses.

I'm reading to day that productivity is supposedly recovering and at pre-crisis levels, last week it was that Brexit has not created a hard landing, and just now that we are going to reassure US banks that we're not going to dematerialize into some slums on Europe's doorstep.

So it's all just ********, isn't it? Cause the £ is bombing anyway... the UK is in fire-sale mode, it has been repossessed and is being sold to foreigners and we are becoming the slaves like those Chinese factory workers. 1.26... what a farce!

[ccc]

To answer the question - yes I been to Australia - in fact I have lived in Australia - twice.

I have also lived in NZ, and the US and Canada. And all before the age of 28. And all off my own back. And all as an adult without family dragging me there.

Yes - I do want a medal :)

Anyway unlike many people that talk about this subject - I do actually have knowledge about it.

The grass is always greener really is a fantastic statement. It is so true.

Someone mentioned the weather being poor in most top European cities compared to similar in Asia. Well yes - if you preference is 36C and humidity that makes life a constant shower !!

I would still happily move to any of the above places for a year or two, and most places in Asia - and in fact most places on the planet. However I have never been to a place where I 100% thought - this is it - my mission is to come and live here full time. Really for me - spending each year in a selection of places including the UK would be the dream. That's not easy to do though.

My main gripe is successive Governments in the UK have succeeded in making the UK a far less pleasant place over the past 20 years. The UK of today could be a truly fantastic place. Unfortunately that's simply not the case. It isn't too bad though.

Shame though.

[thehowler]

You can't beat Blighty - look on the bright side, Brexit might get us another late 60s/early 70s cultural boom, we'll all be jumping around in RAF roundel T-shirts again...

Regards the tanking pound, isn't tourism about 10% of GDP for the UK, about the same as manufacturing. So, we get hordes of tourists chasing the cheap pound, sorts out the current account deficit.

Strange that the usual events that would prompt a pound fightback - recent economic positive reports, top economy G7 etc - are having no effect.

[adamLancs]

1 minute ago, Grumpysod said:

I just have this feeling should the pound go sub 1.10 or maybe even 1.20 it is going to be a case of enough is enough, it really has got to the point where you cannot stuff savers and the responsible anymore. Teresa May suggested she "gets it" when it comes to heavy speculative borrowers speculative asset holders are reaping it in.

Sadly a lot of the damage is being done already, for someone in China moving a swathe of cash to £ at this level and buying assets is a no-brainer and will be even more-so at 1.10 or less.

[Sour Mash]

I suspect that the hints and rumours of govt policy 'shifting away from QE' (discussed in another thread) are designed to try to support the pound without actually doing anything concrete.

[rollover]

Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets UK, reckons sterling is being hit hard by speculators who are determined to drive it lower. He says further losses are a real possibility:

Bears are out for blood and they want to squeeze every single drop out of this trade. Although this is the most crowded trade on the street today, but it is not preventing them to keep piling up their bets.

My biggest worry is that short squeeze can happen soon as we are approaching towards an important level of support which is at $1.25. However, if the selling pressure remains this aggressive, we could easily break this support and we could be looking at the level of $1.22.

Guardian

[cica]

59 minutes ago, jo_gian said:

My brain tells me we will do a hard brexit, close down borders and quit the single market and they will keep up the value of the pound by raising interest rates. Hence we will be the first country in the western world solving the problems we have since 2008.

Everything points to this direction and I have no other explanation for all the talks and while talk is cheap they just can't lie that much. Also May jumped in the polls, so I think they will just do it...

That would be quite something if true.

[Kiwi Toast]

Why are speculators determined to drive sterling lower? Why aren't some determined to drive it higher? (Are some determined to drive it higher? If some are determined to drive it higher, why are they being outweighed by those determined to drive it lower?)

It may be true that some people are betting against sterling even though they believe the current exchange rate is fair. But this relies on them thinking others think it is mispriced. Basically it's hard to believe there are people willing to risk their capital in an attempt to drive sterling lower than it should be.

[Gribble]

43 minutes ago, Grumpysod said:

I just have this feeling should the pound go sub 1.10 or maybe even 1.20 it is going to be a case of enough is enough, it really has got to the point where you cannot stuff savers and the responsible anymore. Teresa May suggested she "gets it" when it comes to heavy speculative borrowers speculative asset holders are reaping it in.

Nothing was done when £ fell to near parity with Euro few years back. Probably wont intervene until drop less than £1 = 90 cents. (sub parity)

[darkmarket]

Just in from the Guardian:

"The value of British government debt is falling today, matching sterling’s selloff.

This has pushed up the interest rate, or yield, on 10-year gilts to 0.89%, from 0.82% yesterday."

If the QE stops, then what?

[GreenDevil]

Pound crashes through July low, 1.2650. Is there much more downside? Certainly looks well oversold.

Its about time the politicians stood up for the country instead of lining the pockets of the bankster scum.

Bring back control of interest rates and sack the gimp.

[copydude]

I think we should make the pound non-convertible. Scr6w them.

We will pay people in cod, Granny Smiths and Branston pickle.

 

[Tapori]

3 hours ago, copydude said:

I think we should make the pound non-convertible. Scr6w them.

We will pay people in cod, Granny Smiths and Branston pickle.

 

Monster Munch

[frederico]

Is it the ERM all over again although different...

 

Maggie said, you can't buck the markets, once they smell blood and they know the government will have to react in the end, they can't and won't lose.

[canbuywontbuy]

6 hours ago, crashmonitor said:

At the end the of the day for most people there is no place like home...Australians would think the same. If you live in Canada or remote Aus walking would be alien and you would have nothing to miss. The Uk is a microcosm of everything and I fear depression would set in if I had space but no stimulus.  Central London is a microcosm of urban everything and that is why we can't compete with foreign buyers because  it's probably the most stimulating environment in the world  if urban floats your boat.

Shows how subjective everything is.  London for me is one of the last places I want to be. It's become an incredibly inauthentic place now - just a big set for tourists to walk around. 

 

5 hours ago, ccc said:

To answer the question - yes I been to Australia - in fact I have lived in Australia - twice.

I have also lived in NZ, and the US and Canada. And all before the age of 28. And all off my own back. And all as an adult without family dragging me there.

Yes - I do want a medal

Anyway unlike many people that talk about this subject - I do actually have knowledge about it.

The grass is always greener really is a fantastic statement. It is so true.

Someone mentioned the weather being poor in most top European cities compared to similar in Asia. Well yes - if you preference is 36C and humidity that makes life a constant shower !!

I would still happily move to any of the above places for a year or two, and most places in Asia - and in fact most places on the planet. However I have never been to a place where I 100% thought - this is it - my mission is to come and live here full time. Really for me - spending each year in a selection of places including the UK would be the dream. That's not easy to do though.

My main gripe is successive Governments in the UK have succeeded in making the UK a far less pleasant place over the past 20 years. The UK of today could be a truly fantastic place. Unfortunately that's simply not the case. It isn't too bad though.

Shame though.

The UK is a beautiful country but it's so bloody spoiled now by its cost of living and politics.  Living a good life should not be about surviving, but about having aspirations and having the means to try and achieve them.  In the UK, who can even afford to have aspirations? Many young people live with their mum and dad into their 30s, or rent forever.  There's a constant cloud over many people's heads in the UK. 

[ccc]

Yes the UK has become a bit spoiled.

 

Hindsight is a great thing - but looking back the early and mid 90's were truly a golden era in the UK imo.