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The Public Sector Bubble

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It has struck me recently that there must be a core of rock solid group property gamblers who i) have the excess liquidty and ii) have the financial naievity to keep this bubble going on so long as it has.

The only resonable conclusion I have been able to come up with so far is that the rump must be public sector workers; spending recent pay gains, being a group that is detached enough from the reality of rising costs, the brutal economics of running a business and sheltered from the presence of either pension failure or job loss to have the confidence to do so.

Can anybody think of another group that could have been the cause, becuase I am struggling to find one.

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Can anybody think of another group that could have been the cause, becuase I am struggling to find one.

Everyones at it - i know a lawyer in London who has a 2 mil portfolio and my cousins husband in e.anglia with 3 properties - he is a plumber.

I've just moved out of London back to the West Mids and my parents tell me I should be doing it since I can probably get a couple of properties in "shi*sville on trent" at auction for cash. My parents are thinking of doing it and they've only bought one house their entire life but they think they know it all when it comes to property. I find a lot of people are like this.

It's the calm before the storm. It sure is frustrating though

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Please forgive me if I have misunderstood you the point of your post, but what a strange assumption you have made.

In all my experience in the property industry in has never stuck me that public sector workers have ever played a major part in contributing to the situation we find ourselves in now.

I can’t say that I’ve have ever seen anybody doing a fulltime salaried job having the time to get involved in flipping, playing amateur landlord. or wheeling and dealing at property auctions.

I have found like the previous poster that many are self employed builders, kitchen fitters, and other tradesmen, people with first hand experience of the industry. Or as the other poster says, solicitors, and other professionals such as dentist. I had one school teacher, but he came a cropper in the business.

Are public sector workers becoming the new scapegoat group responsible for all society’s ills? Could this be the fact that they are not yet protected by political correctness.

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Please forgive me if I have misunderstood you the point of your post, but what a strange assumption you have made.

In all my experience in the property industry in has never stuck me that public sector workers have ever played a major part in contributing to the situation we find ourselves in now.

I can’t say that I’ve have ever seen anybody doing a fulltime salaried job having the time to get involved in flipping, playing amateur landlord. or wheeling and dealing at property auctions.

I have found like the previous poster that many are self employed builders, kitchen fitters, and other tradesmen, people with first hand experience of the industry. Or as the other poster says, solicitors, and other professionals such as dentist. I had one school teacher, but he came a cropper in the business.

Are public sector workers becoming the new scapegoat group responsible for all society’s ills? Could this be the fact that they are not yet protected by political correctness.

the wages rises the public sector have got is responsible for the increases in property value, i think this is what the original poster means and i fully agree with him.Every teacher,nurse,medical professionl, policeman,council employee in the land have been given huge above inflation pay rises.And give you one clue where the extra money has gone.

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the wages rises the public sector have got is responsible for the increases in property value, i think this is what the original poster means and i fully agree with him.Every teacher,nurse,medical professionl, policeman,council employee in the land have been given huge above inflation pay rises.And give you one clue where the extra money has gone.

The wages seen the sector no doubt helps the bubble, as does that £70k bung given out to key workers, public workers certainly aren't the cause of it more than anybody else but Brown has used such incentives to perpetuate the bubble and cause further inflation, however you can't buck the market when it comes down to it, these schemes will mean little on the down slide.

Doctors seem big on property, they were never exactly poor of course but the new GP agreements leave them on a basic pay well north of £100k without including out of hours work.

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This is unbelievable. I have a colleague, married late 20s who has just (about 8 months ago) bought a house with her husband. the house cost 249 - the vendor had previously accepted 234 and then pushed the price up. They had saved for literally years to get the deposit and they spent it. She had to borrowed the extra from her Aunt. Life is extremely tight for this couple, but if you remember, up to 3 months ago nothing in the press suggested that anyone would ever get on the ladder without spending current amounts.

Yes she is contributing to the number of people who have bought houses at ridiculous prices, but she could have been working in the public sector, working in the private sector (probably earning more actually given the skills she has - but she likes the stability), her husband is self employed but she probably wouldn't go there since that is not her focus. . She is thinking home and family. Just like so many other good people about. People who think home and family, and the media who tell them that they have no hope of ever achieving the security to do that without hocking themselves to the teeth are what drive the bubble.

Of couse as part of the social technocratic establishment (the evil socialist conspiracy ;) ) I don't have a family, have no expectations of having a family and I live in private rented shared housing. Why doesn't everyone live like that? Its families that are driving the bubble. I say lets get rid of families :P

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So why are there half ownership schemes etc and housing associations to help get Keyworkers on the so called property ladder

I pity the poor fools who fall for such things regardless of the sector, we've revealed on here before that such schemes are largely a scam between councils/housing assoications, surveyors, developers and government, you are offered a 50% stake in a property that is 30% inflated in price compared to those on the open market.

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I think its important to recognise the vast diversity of careers and earnings in the 'public sector'.

I don't know how much a nurse gets paid (no amount would make me do the job) but, as Kermit the Frog pointed out to Fozzy Bear when he got a huge pay rise, 100% of nothing is still nothing. I'm pretty sure that nurses and hospital porters aren't keeping the bubble going with their extra 50p per week.

In contrast to your typical nurse, a mate of mine in Manchester is an NHS dentist - he's on a very comfortable £80k per annum working four days a week and with a gold-plated, index-linked pension. I say good luck to him because he 'invested' seven years of hard graft into his time at university doing a real degree. He now does a job that genuinely benefits people - usually chavs with foul mouths (verbally and physically). That being said, my mate is exactly the type of public sector employee who can invest serious money and keep the bubble going.

Cheers

Lord Luggage

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It has struck me recently that there must be a core of rock solid group property gamblers who i) have the excess liquidty and ii) have the financial naievity to keep this bubble going on so long as it has.

The only resonable conclusion I have been able to come up with so far is that the rump must be public sector workers; spending recent pay gains, being a group that is detached enough from the reality of rising costs, the brutal economics of running a business and sheltered from the presence of either pension failure or job loss to have the confidence to do so.

Can anybody think of another group that could have been the cause, becuase I am struggling to find one.

As already stated, lots of people are trying BTL.

You can buy a 3 bed terrace round here today for around £130k.

If you put down £10k and have a £120k repayment loan, the monthly repayments are about £700.

You would get around £650 per month in rent, maybe even £700.

If you are in it long term (25yrs) then this would be seen as an alternative to investing in a pension plan.

As long as you avoid voids and as long as interest rates don't rocket then you should come out of it OK.

Any capital gain at the end of 25yrs (or longterm increase in rents) is seen as a bonus.

You can avoid IR rises by going long term fixed rate.

(before you slate me, I do not have a BTL myself!)

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It has struck me recently that there must be a core of rock solid group property gamblers who i) have the excess liquidty and ii) have the financial naievity to keep this bubble going on so long as it has.

The only resonable conclusion I have been able to come up with so far is that the rump must be public sector workers; spending recent pay gains, being a group that is detached enough from the reality of rising costs, the brutal economics of running a business and sheltered from the presence of either pension failure or job loss to have the confidence to do so.

Can anybody think of another group that could have been the cause, becuase I am struggling to find one.

I have been coming on this site for years but never felt the urge to post anything. Finally you came up with a subject to make me bite. First a little bit about me. 30 years old, served an apprenticeship as an electrician with the Royal Navy (civilian), First Class honours degree in Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Chartered Engineer, currently working as a civilian for the military in the Bath/Bristol area. Like many people here I can not afford a house as I went to university when I was 23, graduated at 25, did a graduate training program that moved me around all over the UK and the US and by the time that was done it was 2002 and the boom was well under way.

As you can see I am well qualified and, as you might imagine, I am a senior employee in the civil service. Despite having internal qualifications on top of what I already have officially that attracts a retention bonus, I earn 24k. Yet your post seems to suggest that the likes of me are responsible for the property boom? I think not. I am typical of the public sector workers who are continually blamed for costing the country too much money. I can assure you it is not the likes of us that have caused a property boom. We are struggling like the rest of you. We work hard to achieve our objectives for the benefit of the country and get paid an average wage that does not allow us to get on the property ladder without over borrowing. I live in a shared house with teachers and nurses who are in the same position as me. I find it frustrating yet somehow amusing that Gordon Brown keeps getting blamed for having too many of those ‘bloody civil servants’ working for him placing a burden on the country when I am working 10 hour days (with no overtime) to keep up with my workload and desperately need someone else to work with me to keep on top of it all. Yet we will also be the first to be blamed next time several hundred people are blown up on the tube on their way to work because we did not have sufficient resources to process the intelligence. How can we win?

I am sure my post will not change your attitude towards us or make any difference to the world but it makes me feel better. In summary, don’t blame us, we are in the same boat as you. However, in the words of the awesome Audioslave “Go on and save yourself, take it out on me”.

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I think not. I am typical of the public sector workers who are continually blamed for costing the country too much money. I can assure you it is not the likes of us that have caused a property boom. We are struggling like the rest of you. We work hard to achieve our objectives for the benefit of the country and get paid an average wage that does not allow us to get on the property ladder without over borrowing. I live in a shared house with teachers and nurses who are in the same position as me. I find it frustrating yet somehow amusing that Gordon Brown keeps getting blamed for having too many of those ‘bloody civil servants’ working for him placing a burden on the country when I am working 10 hour days

Brown does hire thousands of bloody useless civil servants, it's just that you are not one of them, you must serve a useful function as you're not paid enough, pointless diversity policy open spaces liaison managers command a much better wage. The pay is inversely proportional to the usefulness of the job.

You wont find people complaining about too many doctors, too many nurses or too many teachers, a chance would be a fine thing, the NHS has many times more pointless administrators than medical staff, it has more civil servants than there are beds! The rate of hiring is making the problem worse, for every doctor or nurse they hire they add an additional five pointless jobs.

I also doubt that clustering hundreds of thousands of civil servants in Whitehall exactly helps with the front line medical provision in a hospital in Liverpool, the teaching of Children in York or your own work in Bristol.

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I have been coming on this site for years but never felt the urge to post anything. Finally you came up with a subject to make me bite. First a little bit about me. 30 years old, served an apprenticeship as an electrician with the Royal Navy (civilian), First Class honours degree in Electrical/Electronic Engineering, Chartered Engineer, currently working as a civilian for the military in the Bath/Bristol area. Like many people here I can not afford a house as I went to university when I was 23, graduated at 25, did a graduate training program that moved me around all over the UK and the US and by the time that was done it was 2002 and the boom was well under way.

As you can see I am well qualified and, as you might imagine, I am a senior employee in the civil service. Despite having internal qualifications on top of what I already have officially that attracts a retention bonus, I earn 24k. Yet your post seems to suggest that the likes of me are responsible for the property boom? I think not. I am typical of the public sector workers who are continually blamed for costing the country too much money. I can assure you it is not the likes of us that have caused a property boom. We are struggling like the rest of you. We work hard to achieve our objectives for the benefit of the country and get paid an average wage that does not allow us to get on the property ladder without over borrowing. I live in a shared house with teachers and nurses who are in the same position as me. I find it frustrating yet somehow amusing that Gordon Brown keeps getting blamed for having too many of those ‘bloody civil servants’ working for him placing a burden on the country when I am working 10 hour days (with no overtime) to keep up with my workload and desperately need someone else to work with me to keep on top of it all. Yet we will also be the first to be blamed next time several hundred people are blown up on the tube on their way to work because we did not have sufficient resources to process the intelligence. How can we win?

I am sure my post will not change your attitude towards us or make any difference to the world but it makes me feel better. In summary, don’t blame us, we are in the same boat as you. However, in the words of the awesome Audioslave “Go on and save yourself, take it out on me”.

You have a 1st in EE and you are 30 and you are earning £24k for 10hrs a day?

Even our 23yr old raw graduates in EE (zero work experience and not all have 1sts) get about the same as you for a 37hr WEEK. Only a few miles away from you too.

I'd quit the public sector if I were you!

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Brown does hire thousands of bloody useless civil servants, it's just that you are not one of them, you must serve a useful function as you're not paid enough, pointless diversity policy open spaces liaison managers command a much better wage. The pay is inversely proportional to the usefulness of the job.

You wont find people complaining about too many doctors, too many nurses or too many teachers, a chance would be a fine thing, the NHS has many times more pointless administrators than medical staff, it has more civil servants than there are beds! The rate of hiring is making the problem worse, for every doctor or nurse they hire they add an additional five pointless jobs.

I also doubt that clustering hundreds of thousands of civil servants in Whitehall exactly helps with the front line medical provision in a hospital in Liverpool, the teaching of Children in York or your own work in Bristol.

In the public sector it is gross overmanning behind the scenes in admin that is the problem.......

Productivity in the NHS for example is reasonable in hospitals...Problem is there are far more pen pushers than hospital workers

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I just find this idea of a 'rock solid core of property gamblers' as people who are in stable jobs on stable patterns of work on monthly salary systems and the most part 18-27K a year to be hilarious. I mean hello?

  • The behavioural profile is out the window
  • The surplus funding just isn't there (you try and find a margin for serious property gambling on a take home pay of between 1150 - 1800 a month)

The only time I would have been a property gambler was when I was contracting in the private sector. That was rolling :D . Very insecure but I always had money in the bank (just not the visa to allow me to gamble on my first property).

In the public sector it is gross overmanning behind the scenes in admin that is the problem.......

Productivity in the NHS for example is reasonable in hospitals...Problem is there are far more pen pushers than hospital workers

You need pen pushers. But they need to be hard and fast and as you say, there need to be less of them (us!). They also need good IT systems as opposed to expensive ones build by private sector contractors who are on a money roll and looking for any excuse for a variation.

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The only time I would have been a property gambler was when I was contracting in the private sector. That was rolling

I always knew you yearned for the dark side, sipping from the golden chalice (trough?) of those shadowy capitalist overlords.

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You have a 1st in EE and you are 30 and you are earning £24k for 10hrs a day?

Even our 23yr old raw graduates in EE (zero work experience and not all have 1sts) get about the same as you for a 37hr WEEK. Only a few miles away from you too.

I'd quit the public sector if I were you!

Well the main things that keep me there are a) The pension (I will probably wish I never brought that up) - it's final salary and as long as I don't leave the civil service I should keep it (closed to new entrants though) B) The security and c) It's a bloody interesting job and the only reason I'd leave for more money would be to buy a house. As for part c there's nothing I can say that hasn't already been said. I was saying it will crash in 2001. I have watched property venomously since 1996.

As for the comment about the NHS I can’t speak for them. I only know of defence and intelligence departments and they are very overstretched. Although I did meet someone working for a defence department with a History degree the other day. He was on the fast track scheme. He had a very 'Tony Blair' aura about him. Did you know the government plans/expects a war every 10 years?

1982 – Falklands

1991 – Gulf War One

2002 – Gulf war 2

2007 – No prizes for guessing where that will be

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As for the comment about the NHS I can’t speak for them. I only know of defence and intelligence departments and they are very overstretched. Although I did meet someone working for a defence department with a History degree the other day. He was on the fast track scheme. He had a very 'Tony Blair' aura about him. Did you know the government plans/expects a war every 10 years?

1982 – Falklands

1991 – Gulf War One

2002 – Gulf war 2

2007 – No prizes for guessing where that will be

I suppose Bosnia, Afghanistan and Kosovo were just test matches? Sierra Leone was more like a one day, but nobody seems to be able to do a 20/20.

Tony has managed about five in less than a decade, how's that for a batting average?

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I suppose Bosnia, Afghanistan and Kosovo were just test matches? Sierra Leone was more like a one day, but nobody seems to be able to do a 20/20.

Tony has managed about five in less than a decade, how's that for a batting average?

Well I think they were officially descibed as conflicts. I think the ones I mentioned were the only ones where we officially declared war. I would need to seek clarification that I am not talking out of my **** there but I am reasonably confident.

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Absolute baloney,

I am a mental health nurse whom has been qualified two years. My basic wage and and unsocial payment totals approx 24500. I work a lot of nights to get this sum.

I don't think public sector workers are helping the boom. A Nurses wage increased by practicallly nothing when labour came to power. Agenda for change was a farce.

They gave increases to one hand and took special pay from another. I was no better off. they changed our grading system and now it will take me around 5 years more, to get the same salary, as it would have done.

Now management, thats where the money has gone they got phenominal pay rises.

Far too many pen pushers and office workers. In fact my ward recently got cloased, why? Offices, more office space.

Can I just add. Iv'e waited long enough and althoguh it goes against the hpc way, we are now going to buy. Had to move out of last rental property (they wanted it back to live in). I feel there is no security in renting. you can only wait so long befor eyou spend too much rent eh? (knock me down! Make me see sense!) It is just lucky i'm not first time buyer eh!

I have been actively looking for a week and without a doubt the sellers im my area have had minimal viewings. Some only 1 or 2 in over year, and still they say 'i will not take any silly offers'. One said i bet your dissapointed you sold you missed the boom. we sold 18 months ago around june 04. His house he had bought, doem soem DIY put it back on market 35000 more. It didnt sell its been on the market 15 months. Yes I missed the boom!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol::lol::lol:

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Well I think they were officially descibed as conflicts. I think the ones I mentioned were the only ones where we officially declared war. I would need to seek clarification that I am not talking out of my **** there but I am reasonably confident.

One thing you don't hear mentioned on the BBC very often is the fact the UK has the second best air force and navy in the world (both capability and tonnage). I suppose that makes sense when you look at it logically, Russia is pretty austere thesedays and China hasn't built up its capability to high levels, though I wouldn't want to pick a fight with their army. It looks like Taiwan can wave goodbye to its independence when the time comes.

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Sorry to start the thread and disappear like that, I wasn;t keeping my head down, honest.

Thanks for the replies and yes I know it was a strange original post, but yes I do believe that somewhere along the line this is very different from previous bubbles and elements fo the public sector have had a serious part to play.

SCUMBAG, yes I can well believe that there are sections and levels of teh civil service that both require significant skillsets - as would be required in many equivalent private sector jobs and pay low equivalent wages but I think you will find that also happens within the private sector too, in engineering especially. A posted about a couple of jobs i saw in the Bath Chronicle - Lecturer in Aeronautics - £20-£22K, network admin managers x3 bristol council - £32K - now you tell me now those two can be squared up?

Maybe the effect is more obvious on a more local scale. Lets take Wales for example, now Wales has has nearly the highest levels of relative HPI. Why? Wales hardly produces anything now so it is not people in the manufacturing sector that have been able to gear up to their necks. Let's see which part of the Welsh economy has had more money thrown at it than any other - the public sector, there's got to be a connection.

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SCUMBAG, yes I can well believe that there are sections and levels of teh civil service that both require significant skillsets - as would be required in many equivalent private sector jobs and pay low equivalent wages but I think you will find that also happens within the private sector too, in engineering especially. A posted about a couple of jobs i saw in the Bath Chronicle - Lecturer in Aeronautics - £20-£22K, network admin managers x3 bristol council - £32K - now you tell me now those two can be squared up?

There is lots of waste in the public sector, unfortunately when it comes to the crunch and the funding problems emerge what will a pointless manager or agency do, blame themselves and bring about their own downfall? Hardly, they sack front line fodder, close wards, close frontline facilities, anything to save their own necks.

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Brown does hire thousands of bloody useless civil servants, it's just that you are not one of them, you must serve a useful function as you're not paid enough, pointless diversity policy open spaces liaison managers command a much better wage. The pay is inversely proportional to the usefulness of the job.

As I recall there were 80,000 jobs created in education last year, of which less than 10,000 were teachers

WTF are the other 70,000 doing?????

Edited by 88Crash

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SCUMBAG, yes I can well believe that there are sections and levels of teh civil service that both require significant skillsets - as would be required in many equivalent private sector jobs and pay low equivalent wages but I think you will find that also happens within the private sector too, in engineering especially. A posted about a couple of jobs i saw in the Bath Chronicle - Lecturer in Aeronautics - £20-£22K, network admin managers x3 bristol council - £32K - now you tell me now those two can be squared up?

I wish I could. Although this does highlight a good thing about the civil service for me. It may be poo pay but you get the opportunity to develop to your full potential which, besides being satisfying personally, opens up doors for the future to go for the better paid jobs. Another reason I want to stay there is I am convinced that we will enter the crash/recession cycle phase within the next 2-5 years and when that happens there will be job losses and then I will be quite happy to be a modestly paid civil servant with specialist knowledge in a secure job. I thought it would have happened by now but when I sit back and look at all the evidence I can see these sorts of things don't happen overnight, particularly when inflation is so low as to act as a 'damping ratio' (for all you system control engineers out there).

One thing you don't hear mentioned on the BBC very often is the fact the UK has the second best air force and navy in the world (both capability and tonnage). I suppose that makes sense when you look at it logically, Russia is pretty austere thesedays and China hasn't built up its capability to high levels, though I wouldn't want to pick a fight with their army. It looks like Taiwan can wave goodbye to its independence when the time comes.

I think we are the best personally on many levels. We have a saying in military circles about the Americans - 'All the gear, no idea'. It is so true.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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