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Help To Buy - Mortgage Guarantee No Longer Required Says Boe

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"A major scheme designed to prop up the UK housing market"

Err - did they mean to state what we all know in such blatant terms ?! Someone is getting the BBC boot I fear !! Edited within the hour.

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"A major scheme designed to prop up the UK housing market"

Err - did they mean to state what we all know in such blatant terms ?! Someone is getting the BBC boot I fear !! Edited within the hour.

I took a screenshot of that.

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While it would be good for house buyers, UK cannot just start raising interest rates alone in the world as the huge distortion in the value of the pound could decimate the real economy. Major economies will need a coordinated effort to start rate rises together, that's what US is doing, keep waiting for others.


I don't have any problem with interest rates staying low as far as UK deflates housing bubble with fiscal tools, for example making interest only BTL not viable with some tax changes.


This process has been already started.


As I've already explained, the government tried to intervene as soon as it could after Osborne's mistake and the resulting uncontrollable HPI. But they need at least a year data to see the effects and all data contain months of backlog, they need to make sure its not only a temporary spike etc..., then they need time to make adjustments on regulations, so they've actually reacted fast in government terms.


Carney could not do anything alone apart from providing data to Osborne, the master plan was to let Osborne make his adjustments in fiscal policy, then only if those do not work, then BoE would intervene. But this plan actually means they've been ready to do anything to stop this, they did not want this.


I am sure Carney and Osborne did crap themselves when they've realized there is an uncontrollable HPI fueled by landlords. Carney has just witnessed from the first row how Osborne burnt his fingers with landlords, so actually he might be the one suggesting to Hammond that you can do anything, but do not support landlords.


Realistically we cannot hope for a major crash (unless a major event happens), but there won't be any HPI anytime soon either. This latest communication, HoL and Hammond talking about bringing down prices, BoE saying Help to Buy can be scrapped etc..., this all points to this direction.


I don' think they will change stamp duty or s24 either, first of all they don't have any data yet about the result of these changes, secondly a lot of people already adjusted to the situation, created companies preparing for the changes etc..., which is actually better for HMRC. Also they won't just change major policies in every few months and a slowly deflating London bubble perfectly fits into the picture.


I think the best we can hope for is that Hammond leaves the used stock as it is, not changing any policies made by Osborne and actually start building, maybe helping private builders. Then prices would stagnate or would slowly coming down. BoE might potentially make some tightening on interest only debt similarly phased in as s24, giving time to everyone on interest only debt to work up their equities. I think that's the max we can have.

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Perhaps good on the long term, but if a withdrawal is announced, then I smell another market distortion on the way as first time buyers plough in to get on on the action before it's 'too late'.

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While it would be good for house buyers, UK cannot just start raising interest rates alone in the world as the huge distortion in the value of the pound could decimate the real economy. Major economies will need a coordinated effort to start rate rises together, that's what US is doing, keep waiting for others.

The US raised IR in December 2015 from 0.25% to 0.5% and there are strong signals they plan to raise them again in December 2016. The UK lowered the rate from 0.5% to 0.25% in August. It's the UK going opposite to the US and lowering rates, so I don't think a global context excuses the BoE. As for the US, it looks more like they want to raise rates again but being very careful about it.

The only reason to have low IR is the economy is in a very bad shape, and you need cheap debt to massage the numbers (a bit like promising/"bringing forward" future productivity into the present to mask the low productivity/employment you have today). The low IR we have today for BTL and other commercial loans does not reflect the risk of default and in the long term amplifies the problems. It's very likely everyone else will pay for the low IR one way or another (e.g. bank bailouts). This is why I have a problem with low IR.

Disclaimer: I'm not an economist, just trying to make sense of what's going on and how everything connects together. Corrections welcome.

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As I've already explained, the government tried to intervene as soon as it could after Osborne's mistake and the resulting uncontrollable HPI. But they need at least a year data to see the effects and all data contain months of backlog, they need to make sure its not only a temporary spike etc..., then they need time to make adjustments on regulations, so they've actually reacted fast in government terms.
Carney could not do anything alone apart from providing data to Osborne, the master plan was to let Osborne make his adjustments in fiscal policy, then only if those do not work, then BoE would intervene. But this plan actually means they've been ready to do anything to stop this, they did not want this.

Yes they intervened by creating HTB 2, HTB ISA, HTB 40% FFL on steroids. They really done all they could, i so applaud them.

The data Carney provided said there was no bubble everything was tickityboo, or have you forgot this?

I think you're Osbornes mum the way you talk of the glory days under his rule and ignore his personal HP bubble. Though this site has turned into the Gidiot fan club as after 5 years in office he ended whats effectively MIRAS for BTLers. When i say ended i mean he's given BTLers 6 years notice and its only aimed at higher tax payers. Pathetic.

And as for your claim there is no house price inflation. in my search area in Southern England prices have gone up 10% in the last year.

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While it would be good for house buyers, UK cannot just start raising interest rates alone in the world as the huge distortion in the value of the pound could decimate the real economy. Major economies will need a coordinated effort to start rate rises together, that's what US is doing, keep waiting for others.
I don't have any problem with interest rates staying low as far as UK deflates housing bubble with fiscal tools, for example making interest only BTL not viable with some tax changes.
This process has been already started.
As I've already explained, the government tried to intervene as soon as it could after Osborne's mistake and the resulting uncontrollable HPI. But they need at least a year data to see the effects and all data contain months of backlog, they need to make sure its not only a temporary spike etc..., then they need time to make adjustments on regulations, so they've actually reacted fast in government terms.
Carney could not do anything alone apart from providing data to Osborne, the master plan was to let Osborne make his adjustments in fiscal policy, then only if those do not work, then BoE would intervene. But this plan actually means they've been ready to do anything to stop this, they did not want this.
I am sure Carney and Osborne did crap themselves when they've realized there is an uncontrollable HPI fueled by landlords. Carney has just witnessed from the first row how Osborne burnt his fingers with landlords, so actually he might be the one suggesting to Hammond that you can do anything, but do not support landlords.
Realistically we cannot hope for a major crash (unless a major event happens), but there won't be any HPI anytime soon either. This latest communication, HoL and Hammond talking about bringing down prices, BoE saying Help to Buy can be scrapped etc..., this all points to this direction.
I don' think they will change stamp duty or s24 either, first of all they don't have any data yet about the result of these changes, secondly a lot of people already adjusted to the situation, created companies preparing for the changes etc..., which is actually better for HMRC. Also they won't just change major policies in every few months and a slowly deflating London bubble perfectly fits into the picture.
I think the best we can hope for is that Hammond leaves the used stock as it is, not changing any policies made by Osborne and actually start building, maybe helping private builders. Then prices would stagnate or would slowly coming down. BoE might potentially make some tightening on interest only debt similarly phased in as s24, giving time to everyone on interest only debt to work up their equities. I think that's the max we can have.

Think the main theme of the Autumn statement will be job creation and social fairness. Would expect them to go big on claims about encouraging building new homes of all tenures not just for ownership and to come out with an eye-catching figure for what they're backing this with. Like you say, hopefully no changes to what has been put in place so far. Obviously it would be nice for HTB to end, but dream on.

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Think the main theme of the Autumn statement will be job creation and social fairness. Would expect them to go big on claims about encouraging building new homes of all tenures not just for ownership and to come out with an eye-catching figure for what they're backing this with. Like you say, hopefully no changes to what has been put in place so far. Obviously it would be nice for HTB to end, but dream on.

And clamping down on not working and claiming money from the state.

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While it would be good for house buyers, UK cannot just start raising interest rates alone in the world as the huge distortion in the value of the pound could decimate the real economy. Major economies will need a coordinated effort to start rate rises together, that's what US is doing, keep waiting for others.
I don't have any problem with interest rates staying low as far as UK deflates housing bubble with fiscal tools, for example making interest only BTL not viable with some tax changes.
This process has been already started.
As I've already explained, the government tried to intervene as soon as it could after Osborne's mistake and the resulting uncontrollable HPI. But they need at least a year data to see the effects and all data contain months of backlog, they need to make sure its not only a temporary spike etc..., then they need time to make adjustments on regulations, so they've actually reacted fast in government terms.
Carney could not do anything alone apart from providing data to Osborne, the master plan was to let Osborne make his adjustments in fiscal policy, then only if those do not work, then BoE would intervene. But this plan actually means they've been ready to do anything to stop this, they did not want this.
I am sure Carney and Osborne did crap themselves when they've realized there is an uncontrollable HPI fueled by landlords. Carney has just witnessed from the first row how Osborne burnt his fingers with landlords, so actually he might be the one suggesting to Hammond that you can do anything, but do not support landlords.
Realistically we cannot hope for a major crash (unless a major event happens), but there won't be any HPI anytime soon either. This latest communication, HoL and Hammond talking about bringing down prices, BoE saying Help to Buy can be scrapped etc..., this all points to this direction.
I don' think they will change stamp duty or s24 either, first of all they don't have any data yet about the result of these changes, secondly a lot of people already adjusted to the situation, created companies preparing for the changes etc..., which is actually better for HMRC. Also they won't just change major policies in every few months and a slowly deflating London bubble perfectly fits into the picture.
I think the best we can hope for is that Hammond leaves the used stock as it is, not changing any policies made by Osborne and actually start building, maybe helping private builders. Then prices would stagnate or would slowly coming down. BoE might potentially make some tightening on interest only debt similarly phased in as s24, giving time to everyone on interest only debt to work up their equities. I think that's the max we can have.

You made a similar comment on another thread. Osborne became chancellor in 2010, and introduced HTB in 2013. Your comment does not describe reality. The government through the kitchen sink at the housing market to ensure high house prices remained "affordable" (via extra debt). If Osborne wanted lower house prices, he had plenty of tools to enable this.

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Think the main theme of the Autumn statement will be job creation and social fairness. Would expect them to go big on claims about encouraging building new homes of all tenures not just for ownership and to come out with an eye-catching figure for what they're backing this with. Like you say, hopefully no changes to what has been put in place so far. Obviously it would be nice for HTB to end, but dream on.

They say that with every budget.

Don't listen to what they say, watch what they do.

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They say that with every budget.

Don't listen to what they say, watch what they do.

The boe can hardly say they've been officially advised that Osborne was a c#nt so they're redacting his most c#ntish policies can they? Edited by Si1

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So other props successfully in place to rescue the banks?

They already have special dispensation not to give up their seats to disabled people on trains.

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They already have special dispensation not to give up their seats to disabled people on trains.

One of them was a bloke from Grimsby i'm going out on a limb and saying no noteworthy banksters make such a commute. She was one of the new disabled that can manage a day walking around London yet as soon as she gets on the train becomes all crippled again.

Besides they need the rest to go to work to fund her life on benefits, the vindictive wench!

The fact i know about and have now commented on such a minor dispute due to it being in all online newspapers is not good.I blame it on house prices being unaffordable which has led to me searching out stories of the property markets imminent decline . The day i buy a house will be the day i stop reading the UKs rather silly newspapers.

Edited by Crumbless

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Think the main theme of the Autumn statement will be job creation and social fairness. Would expect them to go big on claims about encouraging building new homes of all tenures not just for ownership and to come out with an eye-catching figure for what they're backing this with. Like you say, hopefully no changes to what has been put in place so far. Obviously it would be nice for HTB to end, but dream on.

Hammond's session in front of the House of Lords revolved around three main topic, housing, brexit and economy, so it seems housing will be an important part of the Autumn Budget.
He said that solving the housing crisis is very important for May and they need to come up with something, they are putting a lot of effort into this. He seems to have his ideas - mainly building and planning changes, like making sure local authorities do build and they release land for middle, small size and private developers and he also wants to stop land banking by big builders.
Unfortunately he hasn't said a word about landlords, interest only debt and the finance side of things, I think he is just not interested in these.
But overall he seems to be aware of everything going on, he was talking about QE pushing up asset prices, too much money supply and restricted housing stock etc..., my impression is that he definitely has the knowledge, question is what he wants to do. If the goal is really what he said "bringing down house prices on a sustainable basis", he might come up with some good things.
I am sure "help to buy not necessary anymore" has been discussed with Hammond before and he agreed, so it seems the first thing he does is to scrap one of the idiotic schemes propping up the market. Promising so far.

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But overall he seems to be aware of everything going on, he was talking about QE pushing up asset prices, too much money supply and restricted housing stock etc..., my impression is that he definitely has the knowledge, question is what he wants to do. If the goal is really what he said "bringing down house prices on a sustainable basis", he might come up with some good things.
I am sure "help to buy not necessary anymore" has been discussed with Hammond before and he agreed, so it seems the first thing he does is to scrap one of the idiotic schemes propping up the market. Promising so far.

The question about what Mr Hammond and Ms May do about QE has already been answered, he gave the go ahead for lots more and lower interest rates within weeks of getting the job. Despite the fact Ms May said its a problem just before her competitor for the leadership withdrew. So the little she did say in this contest has already been contradicted.

And Hammond did not scrap HTB2 it was due to end, if he ended HTB 1 and HTB 40% this would be scrapping them, as of yet this has not happened.

You do seem to be the Tory parties biggest cheerleader.

Edited by Crumbless

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