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Paul77

Nationwide Hpi +0.6% M/m

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I don't think you are the only mate that feels like life is slipping by,

After being 99% optimistic and positive most of this year I hit a wall this past week. I noticed someone posting on here about living in a van or other solutions, I suddenly revived a plan to live in Normandy or Brittany which is very doable for me and posted on HPC.

Except....in all likelyhood you will have no right to live there soon, £ has collapsed against Euro and the place is being over run by terrorist butters

Enjoy.

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It seems the penny is dropping for many on here.

The VIs will not let this drop and it will only end 1 way ( as it did in 2007 ) this time it will be much much worse.

Do what the EU immigrants are doing...Save to Leave.

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I am starting to completely despair now. Have large level of savings - more money than I could spend on anything bar property - but just not prepared to waste it on buying an awful dump in London for £400k.

I am renewing my rental contract this week which always makes me a bit depressed as it's another year lost - but the landlord is freezing the rent and it's a far nicer place than I could buy.

It's all getting me a bit depressed sadly - I only see me ever owning by inheriting my parents home if not needed for their social care.

Edited by MARTINX9

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Me too. Sick of being a landlord's b*tch, but also don't want to be a bank's b*tch. And loath to gift my money to some ingrate as highlighted above.

My wife and I have saved up a decent sum over the years, only to watch it being totally eclipsed by the effects of cheap credit.

Quite honestly it's been the most de-motivating few years of my life. All that kept me going is that, one day, if we really slaved and commited to a life of indebted misery, as two people on a reasonable combined income we might just be able to buy some heap next door to a retired caretaker.

Now I'm emigrating back to the Midlands. It's not cheap by long-term metrics, but compared to around here it's at least a chance to get on with life.

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Me too. Sick of being a landlord's b*tch, but also don't want to be a bank's b*tch. And loath to gift my money to some ingrate as highlighted above.

My wife and I have saved up a decent sum over the years, only to watch it being totally eclipsed by the effects of cheap credit.

Quite honestly it's been the most de-motivating few years of my life. All that kept me going is that, one day, if we really slaved and commited to a life of indebted misery, as two people on a reasonable combined income we might just be able to buy some heap next door to a retired caretaker.

Now I'm emigrating back to the Midlands. It's not cheap by long-term metrics, but compared to around here it's at least a chance to get on with life.

You've not been getting on with your life whilst renting ?

You work for the BBC and I claim my £10B

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You've not been getting on with your life whilst renting ?

You work for the BBC and I claim my £10B

Nope. No-one told me when to run. I missed the starting gun.

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As per my reply to another post: http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/index.php?/topic/226461-uk-mortgage-approvals-at-lowest-in-18-monthshouse-prices-could-ease-back-by-3pc/

Does not compute.

Money lenders NW say prices going up.

Does not compute.

Exactly Count, the NW figures make no sense!

If mortgage approvals are down, transactions massively down, sentimentality massively turned around...how on earth have NW reported an increase???

But hey who'd have thought a VI mortgage lender would want the prices to look like they're still going up...It's almost as if they've rigged it ;)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would think of this as pure smoke and mirrors, a last hurrah..Nationwide know the game is up IMO.

Does not compute.

Money lenders NW say prices going up.

Does not compute.

Exactly Count, the NW figures make no sense!

If mortgage approvals are down, transactions massively down, sentimentality massively turned around...how on earth have NW reported an increase???

But hey who'd have thought a VI mortgage lender would want the prices to look like they're still going up...It's almost as if they've rigged it ;)

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You guys seem to despair way too much. At this point on the bubble curve it's the volumes that matter.

Edited by kibuc

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You guys seem to despair way to much. At this point on the bubble curve it's the volumes that matter.

Exactly Kibuc, surely these figures (if accurate) are massively skewed because volumes are "so" much lower than normal.

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Exactly Kibuc, surely these figures (if accurate) are massively skewed because volumes are "so" much lower than normal.

So right. Sales and mortgage approvals are drying up. In spite of suicidal interest rates, 20% sterling devaluation and taxpayers footing the first 240k for anyone who buys a house in the SE or SW. Not to mention all the other subsidies that keep the plates spinning.

No moral hazard is too big for UK PLC, but we must be at the very limit of housing market intervention now.

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I am starting to completely despair now. Have large level of savings - more money than I could spend on anything bar property - but just not prepared to waste it on buying an awful dump in London for £400k.

I am renewing my rental contract this week which always makes me a bit depressed as it's another year lost - but the landlord is freezing the rent and it's a far nicer place than I could buy.

It's all getting me a bit depressed sadly - I only see me ever owning by inheriting my parents home if not needed for their social care.

Agree. And to make it worse (as if it could get worse...), that dump will be £500K next year.

Don't forget that the sort of prices and the sort of rises we have seen in London in the past couple of years are pretty much unprecedented in the history of the UK.

In times past, saving a good amount for a deposit (using a comparison of the average salary) added to 'normal' interest rates on those savings and you would have been laughing.

Now you're chasing something that moves far faster than you ever can. Save like crazy and yet you're still lucky if you can afford a pile of s***e that you don't want to live in.

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Prices can only go up as far as interest rates can go down......wages are not going up, and as the pound is dropping only a matter of months before notice things in the shops going up.....stalemate. ;)

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I agree with many of you that I too hit a bit of a wall recently when the aftermath of the Brexit vote after the initial surprise was, well, extremely limited, although I never really expected a true change until late next year into 2018.

However, I would like to state the obvious that nothing has actually really changed yet, unfortunately all the good consumer news lately has clouded the fact that the markets are betting on a further drop to the GBP, and when good ol' article 50 is triggered, this shizzle is gettin real. Why would prices start falling right now? No one has really lost their job yet, credit has never been cheaper.

As winkie says above, just you wait until the weak GBP filters through into inflation rising rapidly against falling wages in real terms towards the end of this year. We'll enter a recession next year, doesn't matter how mild, how will HPI sentiment hold on once that is confirmed everywhere in the media? Very much a falling knife scenario. Never mind all the other issues globally which could well be going south next year, getting close to our 10 year recessional cycle.

Edited by Barnsey

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Prices can only go up as far as interest rates can go down......wages are not going up, and as the pound is dropping only a matter of months before notice things in the shops going up.....stalemate. ;)

"Things in the shops" have been going up throughout the whole time we've supposedly had no inflation, I simply refuse to believe the brainwashing and propaganda that claims otherwise.

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"Things in the shops" have been going up throughout the whole time we've supposedly had no inflation, I simply refuse to believe the brainwashing and propaganda that claims otherwise.

Yes, shrinkage, lower quality and cheaper components is the same as inflation....how low can you go. ;)

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I used to walk past these when out as a yoot in northaw village, a very quiet spot for yoot-like sctivities. They are tiny - two up two down with front door straight to the living room. 650k !!! No station either. Maybe the 3rd bedroom in the roof is a portal to another dimension.

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I am not too much bothered about the "price growth" wait until the EAs feel the pressure. For them it's about volumes. They don't give a f**k about HPI.

Timeline for HPC.

Mar2016- All polls predicting "No Brexit". SDLT changes for second home drive prices up and transactions doubled and most businesses(EAs, surveyors, solicitors) benefitted.

Jun 2016- Brexit.

July 2016- most sales fell through. HPI showed some instability.

August 2016- the Canadian who doesn't understand economy lowers IR. HPI growth again.

Sep 2016 - EAs start to twiddle their thumbs.

Oct 2016 - Autumn statement doesn't support HPI. Possibly P45 for a Canadian.

Jan 2017 - Most EU migrants who are on low wages doesn't return to UK.

Feb 2017 - Article 50 and tax credit cut for basic rate EU citizens.

Mar 2017 - EA's sees opportunity to sell those empty BTL's

Properties flooding into the market.

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I work in the South East and I am looking for value further afield, prepared to commute a bit. Looking at the South West with good road links to my place of work and looking to be closer to Family.

We have started to look at Frome again (Initially looked six years ago, where there were undoubted bargains but the commute was impossible), lovely Town with a population of 30,000. Absolutely miles from anywhere, with no jobs and a torturous 1hr+ commute to the centre of Bristol. It is very rural and very isolated.

I know it relatively well and took a trip there from my current place of work to see if a commute was doable. It is borderline but I could not do it 5 days a week, would need one or two days working from home. First signs were not good. There are now three estate agents located on the old Bridge in the High Street and they were swarming everywhere with sh1t eating grins. It was really noticeable. Frome has some beautiful, very old houses but we all know they throw up their own issues and costs. Amazingly, I estimate that asking prices have doubled in two years.

We got chatting to some very friendly locals (Boomers) and asked them about the area and housing. One lovely Lady was absolutely buzzing about escalating prices. She highlighted the new Steiner Academy and Frome recently being voted sixth coolest place to live in the Country (It is not cool) by The Times, as contributing factors. Obviously lots of London money being pumped into the Town and it was very evident who the Locals and the outsiders were.

Check this very small and underwhelming terraced house. Then check the recently sold prices for houses on the same street:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-60777899.html

It is f%cking nuts and I have just about given up. I am far less motivated at work now (is this a common phenomenon) and after witnessing the full fascist horror of project fear and 48% of the Country going into full on batsh1t meltdown over Brexit, I have to consider my next move. We have a real fight for democracy on our hands in the UK.

Kids I work with, who earn 20% of my salary are ruining their futures with hideous part buy, part rental, all HTB one bed shoe boxes. They are high fiving each other, after signing the longest suicide notes in their lifetimes.

After years of silence in the Office, the last six months has seen the return of frothing, savvy, property investment chat. I despair. Or is this a sign of the end of the Road and a full on crash? There are definite parallels with 2008.

Edited by Untoward

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"Things in the shops" have been going up throughout the whole time we've supposedly had no inflation, I simply refuse to believe the brainwashing and propaganda that claims otherwise.

aside from seasonal fluctuations prices of my staple diet haven't changed for years

avoid supermarkets

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I work in the South East and I am looking for value further afield, prepared to commute a bit. Looking at the South West with good road links to my place of work and looking to be closer to Family.

We have started to look at Frome again (Initially looked six years ago, where there were undoubted bargains but the commute was impossible), lovely Town with a population of 30,000. Absolutely miles from anywhere, with no jobs and a torturous 1hr+ commute to the centre of Bristol. It is very rural and very isolated.

I know it relatively well and took a trip there from my current place of work to see if a commute was doable. It is borderline but I could not do it 5 days a week, would need one or two days working from home. First signs were not good. There are now three estate agents located on the old Bridge in the High Street and they were swarming everywhere with sh1t eating grins. It was really noticeable. Frome has some beautiful, very old houses but we all know they throw up their own issues and costs. Amazingly, I estimate that asking prices have doubled in two years.

We got chatting to some very friendly locals (Boomers) and asked them about the area and housing. One lovely Lady was absolutely buzzing about escalating prices. She highlighted the new Steiner Academy and Frome recently being voted sixth coolest place to live in the Country (It is not cool) by The Times, as contributing factors. Obviously lots of London money being pumped into the Town and it was very evident who the Locals and the outsiders were.

Check this very small and underwhelming terraced house. Then check the recently sold prices for houses on the same street:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-60777899.html

It is f%cking nuts and I have just about given up. I am far less motivated at work now (is this a common phenomenon) and after witnessing the full fascist horror of project fear and 48% of the Country going into full on batsh1t meltdown over Brexit, I have to consider my next move. We have a real fight for democracy on our hands in the UK.

Kids I work with, who earn 20% of my salary are ruining their futures with hideous part buy, part rental, all HTB one bed shoe boxes. They are high fiving each other, after signing the longest suicide notes in their lifetimes.

After years of silence in the Office, the last six months has seen the return of frothing, savvy, property investment chat. I despair. Or is this a sign of the end of the Road and a full on crash? There are definite parallels with 2008.

Your post sums up so many problems with the UK. The main one for me is that anywhere remotely near a major employment centre like a city or big town is already going to have high house prices. Frome is a good example. Even the sale prices on that property you highlight look high to me to be honest, but £300K+ for a terraced property is beyond madness.

The government need to incentivise companies to provide telecommuting setups. I'm sure a lot of companies could do this more. Like "come in to the office two days a week, work three from home". You still have conference calls, employees are happier, and you might well put up with a longer commute for those two days because it's only two days. Actually, in an ideal world, a lot of people should be able to work remotely all the time for their companies. When you look around the UK as a whole, there are still pockets of affordable accommodation. Remote workers can live anywhere. Remote working has been possible for at least the last 10 years.

We live in a weird time where people get food delivered to them via an online order, but people still physically travel to a computer everyday and put their work on a server - when they have a computer at home and could do the same.

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I really think it's low volumes more than anything else that is now sustaining the stupid prices... 2 years ago I was getting 3-4 Rightmove alerts a day for my area, now I'm barely getting 2 a WEEK.

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  • 399 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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