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Housing Target Could Be Missed Thanks To Brexit, Says Shelter

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Building a million homes by 2020 could be a pipe dream without urgent housing reforms, according to a new report from homeless charity Shelter.

Analysis by research company Capital Economics, commissioned by Shelter, projects an eight per cent fall in housebuilding over the next year, as Brexit uncertainty has seen developers hit the breaks.

This would mean falling 266,000 homes short of the government’s target, unveiled last September, to build one million by 2020.

Britain would be building houses at the same rate as the time of the financial crash in 2008, it adds. [more at link]

http://leftfootforward.org/2016/08/housing-target-could-be-missed-thanks-to-brexit-says-shelter/

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Another day another report about house building. Yet another report to add to the rest of the reports on the subject from Shelter and a multitude of other sources including various government departments, different political parties both while in power and while in opposition and along with the whole spectrum of the house building industry and related interests - and written over many years and decades. Now of course they've got yet another pet reason for more reports and excuses on the subject - Brexit.

How much did the latest report cost.

If they don't know by now how to achieve the target then they aren't really trying.

200,000 new homes a year isn't a particularly ambitious target to start with - although they're already well behind on it even before the vote to leave the eu.

They could all at least make an effort - to meet the new homes target while they're all writing all those reports.

Edited by billybong

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Our universities churn out a lot of people who can write reports.

I wonder if they can be re-trained as builders, joiners, bricklayers, electricians, etc?

They would be far more useful.

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Shelter was launched on 1 December 1966

For the year ended March 2011 (England)[4]

  • Total incoming resources: £53,026,000
  • Fundraising costs: £19,203,000
  • Total cost of charitable activities: £35,310,000

Source : - wikipedia.

Well 50 years later and?

Close it down.

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Our universities churn out a lot of people who can write reports.

I wonder if they can be re-trained as builders, joiners, bricklayers, electricians, etc?

They would be far more useful.

Ah, but they would not be able to do it as cheaply as your friendly Eastern European builder

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Ah, but they would not be able to do it as cheaply as your friendly Eastern European builder

But if you just tender the deal in China or India they'll send over their own staff who'll tidy up after finishing and complete in the specified timescale at the price agreed. Doing that is even cheaper.

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Maybe post Brexit we won't have to accommodate so many more people each year so we will need less housing.

In London where half the population now nearly was born abroad who exactly are we building this new housing for?

Yes - we haven't built enough homes. But if our population hadn't increased by 5 million in 10 to 15 years we wouldn't gave needed so many.

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So since Brexit we've had the currency devalue by 20% making uk housing more attractive to foreign investors. We've had base rates cut by 0.25 which makes affordability cheaper for wannabe buyers. Now we have reports of lower house building by developers.

Brexit has been a bit of a disaster for HPC.

I'm just waiting for May to announce HTB 50% or something mental.

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So since Brexit we've had the currency devalue by 20% making uk housing more attractive to foreign investors.

The reality of the pound's fall isn't as bad as the perception.

Since 1st Jun, three weeks before the Brexit vote, the pound is down, as of today:

9% against the US dollar

9% against the Euro

8% against the Chinese yuan

10% against the Singapore dollar

12% against the Malaysian ringgit

Bad, but hardly the '50% discount' on buying property for foreign buyers that some EAs have been peddling

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I'm just waiting for May to announce HTB 50% or something mental.

More likely that the 40% London HTB scheme is rolled out to the rest of the country and to include existing (not new) properties. The way things are heading the government/tax payer is going to own the majority of new mortgages. Of course Brexit will used to justify it, particularly as we get closer to implementation.

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Maybe post Brexit we won't have to accommodate so many more people each year so we will need less housing.

In London where half the population now nearly was born abroad who exactly are we building this new housing for?

Yes - we haven't built enough homes. But if our population hadn't increased by 5 million in 10 to 15 years we wouldn't gave needed so many.

I think the word maybe is pretty key there, I am not sure anyone is talking about reducing immigration, at least on a political level - certainly Brexit will not provide for this, it will just mean migrants from elsewhere too. The existing points based system has a mechanism (currently suspended) for taking unskilled migrants, this can be easily bought back in to action. Oddly enough, population increases are easy to plan for, we haven't woken up and suddenly found a change in population levels since yesterday - we have had 12 years since the EU enlarged, and I think migration is a red herring in terms of housing availability and price.

There is a market failure in housing provision as all involved seek to maximise thier returns. So as a house builder and if you can make more money by building housing slowly, you do. When land valued with planning consent is rising, what have you got to loose? Build slowly, and cash in. When conversely that land is falling in value you build nothing, knowing that demand will crank up again shortly as there is a housing shortage. It is win win and a money tree.

The only time this country has had a sensible housing supply was after the Second World War when the government built huge numbers of homes, yes some a bit crap but no worse that produced privately now, and had a tax regime aimed squarely at home owners to balance the benefit of owning a home with not doing so. Until the 1970s this was the case.

It really is easy for government to manage housing, but it chooses not to for ideological reasons, rather than any other reason.

Edited by Royw6

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50 years to study and understand the housing market.

Millions of pounds.

The credibility and moral authority to be taken seriously.

A labour government for 10 years.

What have shelter done to stop the housing crisis? It feels a lot like nothing.

Housing shortage, give me a break.

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Yet another charity campaigning based on the political beliefs of the troughers running it rather than on its stated aims. Housing pressure is being made worse by mass immigration so, what do they do, claim that something that might reduce immigration (albeit in the longer term) is going to make things worse. Tw4ts.

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Yet another charity campaigning based on the political beliefs of the troughers running it rather than on its stated aims. Housing pressure is being made worse by mass immigration so, what do they do, claim that something that might reduce immigration (albeit in the longer term) is going to make things worse. Tw4ts.

Some so-called charities not naming any names would probably like the status quo. If the problem was solved, then that "quest" would be over. They'd have to then get a job in the cut- throat-race-to-the-bottom-private sector, and they want results with a capital R.

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I phoned Shelter 12 years ago when I was about to get kicked out this council house. They told me to get out before "they come and change the locks."

Of course I stayed and I`m still here 12 years later.

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One of the comments from the Shelter article comments


Imran Khan
August 24, 2016 (4 days ago)
At the moment there is a sever shortage of skilled building workers so a million homes a year is never going to be feasable.

So what happened to the roughly 9/10 million immigrants since 1997 that came to do the jobs that nobody else wanted to do. More than half arriving since the economic collapse when the number of new homes being built dropped significantly. According to official statistics if they're correct.

Apparently the construction industry employs nearly 3 million people - so it must be beyond the wit of those running things to transfer some people from ever more road humps, zig zag lines on the roads, continually changing intersections from traffic lights to roundabouts to traffic lights to roundabouts and back again, ever more traffic calming over egged daftness and ever more roadside "architecture" etc etc (there seems to be a surfeit of all that stuff already) and get them to do some house building.

Apart from that even Shelter isn't proposing "a million homes a year" - they're proposing a million over the possible course of this Parliament (5 years). Getting that number vaguely right would be a start (presuming that's what he actually said and presuming he was referring to Britain and not Pakistan - of course it's just possible it's not Imran Khan the Pakistani cricketer and politician).

Edited by billybong

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