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Thwguardian: Think Jobs, Spending And House Prices Seem Brexit-Proof? Fingers Crossed For Next Year

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The Guardian: Think jobs, spending and house prices seem Brexit-proof? Fingers crossed for next year

The positive economic data of the past week could be testament to the wisdom of UK households, but it’s more likely to be testament to Bank intervention. And how long can that protect us?

What have we been discussing here for so long?

Brexiters brush aside the counter-factual arguments, saying that the Bank’s stimulus plan, which included a cut in interest rates and pumping and extra £70bn into the economy, played second fiddle to the wisdom of the UK household, which has turned out to be more self-confident and far-sighted than City economists had assumed. Consumer confidence surveys were another plank of support for this view, recording a rise this month after plummeting earlier this year.

But what is more likely is that consumers were in a genuine panic until they heard that their central bank was priming its big guns. Soon after, though, they noticed the letter from their mortgage company highlighting the effect of the Carney interest rate cut on their monthly bills and felt much better about the world. Almost all economic activity these days seems to be predicated on zero interest rates, easy access to cheap credit and the Bank’s promise that it will do anything to maintain growth.

But next year could bring further trouble. Once Article 50 is triggered and the debate about our relationship with the EU begins in earnest, concerns about trading outside the free market will resurface.

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City economists have predicted a 350,000 increase in unemployment over the next four years and a growth rate consistently below 2% over the same period. We know this because the Treasury published its review of economic forecasts by the City’s major banks. Investment, the lifeblood for improvements to productivity and higher wages, is expected to leach away, and not just to the EU.

Why, finance companies will ask themselves, should they stay in a post-Brexit London when they could be in Singapore or Hong Kong? Likewise, Ford and other manufacturers will accelerate the process – under way for years now – of taking their factories to the more compliant, low-cost destinations such as Turkey.

Edited by Fairyland

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Looks like somebody has succumb to an attack of the vapors.

City economists have predicted a 350,000 increase in unemployment over the next four years and a growth rate consistently below 2% over the same period. We know this because the Treasury published its review of economic forecasts by the City’s major banks. Investment, the lifeblood for improvements to productivity and higher wages, is expected to leach away, and not just to the EU.
Why, finance companies will ask themselves, should they stay in a post-Brexit London when they could be in Singapore or Hong Kong? Likewise, Ford and other manufacturers will accelerate the process – under way for years now – of taking their factories to the more compliant, low-cost destinations such as Turkey.

So what's your point? :blink:

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oops...

Mods, The thread title should read 'The Guardian' not 'ThwGuardian'. I can't edit it.

It has a pleasant irony given the guardian's hard won reputation for typos.

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We all know the Guardian absolutely wants Brexit to fail - so their declining inner London centric readership who all voted remain can be proved right.

The big message of 23 June was not just against Brussels but against inner London and Guardian readers who think they know best.

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We all know the Guardian absolutely wants Brexit to fail - so their declining inner London centric readership who all voted remain can be proved right.

The big message of 23 June was not just against Brussels but against inner London and Guardian readers who think they know best.

I divide my time between the north coast of Yorkshire and central London. Voted with my roots, voted brexit. The HORROR of those I work with in central London was beyond belief. There are many who will probably never talk to me again lol

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We all know the Guardian absolutely wants Brexit to fail - so their declining inner London centric readership who all voted remain can be proved right.

The big message of 23 June was not just against Brussels but against inner London and Guardian readers who think they know best.

They are the ones who are about to be swallowed up by culti multuralism.

I-ro-nee.

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I divide my time between the north coast of Yorkshire and central London. Voted with my roots, voted brexit. The HORROR of those I work with in central London was beyond belief. There are many who will probably never talk to me again lol

Mr bother vote Out, very pro-Out.

I voted In, hopin to reform the EU - not sure how.

Hes been working near the Wilton waste rubbish electric power station.

You have to question the sanity of EU laws that drop a few hundred Poles, working on Polish wages and conditions in one of the EUs employment blackspots. Bit protests in France and Germany about this policy too.

Economics of the mad house.

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Mr bother vote Out, very pro-Out.

I voted In, hopin to reform the EU - not sure how.

Hes been working near the Wilton waste rubbish electric power station.

You have to question the sanity of EU laws that drop a few hundred Poles, working on Polish wages and conditions in one of the EUs employment blackspots. Bit protests in France and Germany about this policy too.

Economics of the mad house.

I see that you have been overly influenced by being in the south for too long. I suggest that you take an extended vacation back oop north for reeducation

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I see that you have been overly influenced by being in the south for too long. I suggest that you take an extended vacation back oop north for reeducation

The fishing claims are nuts.

All the quoats was sold for good money.

Claims about their being loads of fish are ******. I frew up with someone who worked on at the market from the 60s to the 80s, was a tallyman/checker. He said by the late 60s the fish being caught were tiny. The north sea had been well fished out.

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The fishing claims are nuts.

All the quoats was sold for good money.

Claims about their being loads of fish are ******. I frew up with someone who worked on at the market from the 60s to the 80s, was a tallyman/checker. He said by the late 60s the fish being caught were tiny. The north sea had been well fished out.

Yeah, but they are our fish lol

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Who the f**k has received the letter with good news from their mortgage provider? No rate cut has been passed on, and therefore there has been no consequent bounce in confidence.

Silly season and all the grownups in the newsroom are on holiday article. The editor will be back next week and whoever wrote this drivel will be back to looking after the ' hatch, match & dispatch' section.

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Really? I doubt that.

+1

They'll say anything but more and more people are getting wise to the endemic lies and propaganda.

Edited by billybong

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I read some scientific findings that because they had nets to let young fish thru (EU rules) and we're not allowed to keep any small fish that it has changed the genetic makeup of the fish population in the north sea - by positively selecting for smallness.

Clearly they adapt quicker than humans.

If humans adapted as quick as fish then British people would be increasingly tiny to adapt to the tiny British homes - the tiniest in europe if not the world.

Edited by billybong

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Who the f**k has received the letter with good news from their mortgage provider? No rate cut has been passed on, and therefore there has been no consequent bounce in confidence.

Silly season and all the grownups in the newsroom are on holiday article. The editor will be back next week and whoever wrote this drivel will be back to looking after the ' hatch, match & dispatch' section.

Could agree more. More likely people are relieved that we managed to Brexit. How my European relatives have been grateful that we voted out, its given them some hope.

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Could agree more. More likely people are relieved that we managed to Brexit. How my European relatives have been grateful that we voted out, its given them some hope.

We haven't actually managed to Brexit yet, in fact we haven't even managed to decide what Brexit is yet.

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Do the Remoaners on here not check in on Sundays?

Another awful Guardian article generalising brexit voters. Surely the readership must be getting bored now it's been doing this for months.

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The Guardian: Think jobs, spending and house prices seem Brexit-proof? Fingers crossed for next year

Quote

The positive economic data of the past week could be testament to the wisdom of UK households, but it’s more likely to be testament to Bank intervention. And how long can that protect us?

What have we been discussing here for so long?

Quote

Brexiters brush aside the counter-factual arguments, saying that the Bank’s stimulus plan, which included a cut in interest rates and pumping and extra £70bn into the economy, played second fiddle to the wisdom of the UK household, which has turned out to be more self-confident and far-sighted than City economists had assumed. Consumer confidence surveys were another plank of support for this view, recording a rise this month after plummeting earlier this year.

But what is more likely is that consumers were in a genuine panic until they heard that their central bank was priming its big guns. Soon after, though, they noticed the letter from their mortgage company highlighting the effect of the Carney interest rate cut on their monthly bills and felt much better about the world. Almost all economic activity these days seems to be predicated on zero interest rates, easy access to cheap credit and the Bank’s promise that it will do anything to maintain growth.

But next year could bring further trouble. Once Article 50 is triggered and the debate about our relationship with the EU begins in earnest, concerns about trading outside the free market will resurface.

Advertisement

City economists have predicted a 350,000 increase in unemployment over the next four years and a growth rate consistently below 2% over the same period. We know this because the Treasury published its review of economic forecasts by the City’s major banks. Investment, the lifeblood for improvements to productivity and higher wages, is expected to leach away, and not just to the EU.

Why, finance companies will ask themselves, should they stay in a post-Brexit London when they could be in Singapore or Hong Kong? Likewise, Ford and other manufacturers will accelerate the process – under way for years now – of taking their factories to the more compliant, low-cost destinations such as Turkey.

From someone that knows a thing or two. Ford is terribly beurocratic internally, I wonder how they stay in business.

Ford has been i trouble since 08. If you don't believe me see their stock price chart.

Maybe their Turkey branch is more profitable but Ford Otosan is a jointly owned opperation, shared between Ford and soem Turkish business there. rEMEMBER THAT THERE WAS SOME TURBULENCE IN tURKEY RECENTLY WITH A FAiled coup attempt, somethin that is goign to make some CEO 's think twice about expnding there without knowing how stable the country is going to be over the next decade.

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This article is utterly bizarre. The base rate cut was less than 3 weeks ago, never mind any cuts to tracker mortgages - and yet, consumer spending has already improved? Normally this kind of data will have a natural lag - but no, for the purpose of putting a positive spin on something, the "economic data" has come through at the speed of light.

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Clearly they adapt quicker than humans.

If humans adapted as quick as fish then British people would be increasingly tiny to adapt to the tiny British homes - the tiniest in europe if not the world.

No. Japanese flats are the worlds smallest, surely.

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Mr bother vote Out, very pro-Out.

I voted In, hopin to reform the EU - not sure how.

Hes been working near the Wilton waste rubbish electric power station.

You have to question the sanity of EU laws that drop a few hundred Poles, working on Polish wages and conditions in one of the EUs employment blackspots. Bit protests in France and Germany about this policy too.

Economics of the mad house.

Government NEVER reforms...it just gets bigger...The EU will just get bigger

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Government NEVER reforms...it just gets bigger...The EU will just get bigger

Thats my worry.

All orgs veer towards bureaucracy.

Public sector/governments do so at quick rate.

As I get older, I am veering to that governments create more problems than they fix.

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Who the f**k has received the letter with good news from their mortgage provider? No rate cut has been passed on, and therefore there has been no consequent bounce in confidence.

My letter arrived, now paying 1.94%

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