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Collapse Of Btl Would Be Like A Nuke Going Off

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Been wandering around some of my old haunts for old times' sake and wandered through a BTL infested area and something dawned on me that I hadn't really grasped the true scale of until now (though I'm sure a good few here will have figured it out ages ago and written about it here).

Seeing builders here there and everywhere doing stuff like cramming rooms into an attic space, a property maintenance van, 4 LAs within sight of each other and a professional house cleaner being run out of what I assume was a victorian stable building, I realised BTL isn't just a cancer it a metastasised one. I always thought that Osborne's tax changes were phased in just to stop an HPC. That's true but it's also to prevent an immediate collapse of BTL, because it would be like a nuke going off. The leaveraged BTL LL will be ground zero, the LA/EAs too close to the BTL ground zero will suffer a quick but painful death, then the fallout is going to hit builders, property maintenace companies, electricians/plumbers, professional cleaners etc. hitting those closest to BTL first.

The government may know that BTL LLs are hated by a lot of people, but they also know that Joe from round the corner who was made redundant and set-up his own odd job man business with his redundancy money isn't. So it isn't just unemployment stats stopping them from killing BTL, it's public opinion as well because Joe's story (Joe sad face) will get picked up by the likes of the DM/DE and used to batter the government into reversing policy.

I dunno seems obvious now...

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electricians

Yes, lucky us. Schlepping up to London to do cheap nasty work for cheap nasty people.

At least people that pay for their own tradesmen are happy to pay for quality. Trust me, the landlords couldn't care less.

The sheer amount of once grand London property that has been converted into flats/HMO quickly, cheaply, and badly over the years probably did more for the Polish economy than ours.

Edited by chronyx

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Been wandering around some of my old haunts for old times' sake and wandered through a BTL infested area and something dawned on me that I hadn't really grasped the true scale of until now (though I'm sure a good few here will have figured it out ages ago and written about it here).

Seeing builders here there and everywhere doing stuff like cramming rooms into an attic space, a property maintenance van, 4 LAs within sight of each other and a professional house cleaner being run out of what I assume was a victorian stable building, I realised BTL isn't just a cancer it a metastasised one. I always thought that Osborne's tax changes were phased in just to stop an HPC. That's true but it's also to prevent an immediate collapse of BTL, because it would be like a nuke going off. The leaveraged BTL LL will be ground zero, the LA/EAs too close to the BTL ground zero will suffer a quick but painful death, then the fallout is going to hit builders, property maintenace companies, electricians/plumbers, professional cleaners etc. hitting those closest to BTL first.

The government may know that BTL LLs are hated by a lot of people, but they also know that Joe from round the corner who was made redundant and set-up his own odd job man business with his redundancy money isn't. So it isn't just unemployment stats stopping them from killing BTL, it's public opinion as well because Joe's story (Joe sad face) will get picked up by the likes of the DM/DE and used to batter the government into reversing policy.

I dunno seems obvious now...

Thanks for articulating my muddled thoughts, beginning to form as I also wandered around my old haunts recently. What I spotted was not mainstream btl per se, but holiday homes in a seaside resort. Found two laundries in what would have been businesses that actually served the town (one was a printers before). These I guess are servicing the bed linen from holiday lets. Then there are the shops, at least three, that serve to rent out said properties.

I would think that in the case of holiday lets that aren't divided into smaller units as btl are, then the maintainance is not significantly more. But also think there is a lot of others getting work out of it all. So, yes, I agree with your analysis, letting property, in whatever form, is too valuable to let it go pop

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BTL takes away far more jobs than it creates. Do renters improve the gardens, put in decking, buy plants etc NO. Do they replace carpets, white goods, decorate etc NO. When properties where we live have gone from BTL to OO then there has generally been new kitchens, new flooring, lots of painting, new bathrooms .... remember the phrase from HUTH .... 'it's good enought for a rental' with the implication that you as a LL would, if it was your home, want it improved or replaced but renters will have to make do. Nothing replaced in the rentals since they were newly build (we know because all the flats had the same curtains and carpets .... now nearly 15 years old!) but first action of the new OO is to replace and replace.

Also when people buy a home, apart from decorating / maintenance OOs buy more stuff, new sofas, beds, furniture in general, when renting people do not bother as it might not fit in the next place for get damaged when moved. More crockery, more books, more 'toys'.

BTL is a drag on the economy and reduces the average quality fo housing stock in the UK IHMO.

That's more like it. When the BTLers curl up their toes and die then all these investment vehicles houses will need a lot of work. It could be boom time for the building trade.

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That's more like it. When the BTLers curl up their toes and die then all these investment vehicles houses will need a lot of work. It could be boom time for the building trade.

Exactly

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Very good points in this thread,particularly about the white goods etc, they used to like home ownership because people bought lots of nice new stuff.

The problem we have is the banks, without BTL loans they are insolvent and they would bring down everything else with them. The govt should have been providing a safety net and allow the banks to go bust. They probably can't under EU rules.

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BTL has destroyed were I was brought up. Entire streets are now to let...

The social ships people from all over the UK to fill them, its ruined any community there once was.

So sad.

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BTL takes away far more jobs than it creates. Do renters improve the gardens, put in decking, buy plants etc NO. Do they replace carpets, white goods, decorate etc NO. When properties where we live have gone from BTL to OO then there has generally been new kitchens, new flooring, lots of painting, new bathrooms .... remember the phrase from HUTH .... 'it's good enought for a rental' with the implication that you as a LL would, if it was your home, want it improved or replaced but renters will have to make do. Nothing replaced in the rentals since they were newly build (we know because all the flats had the same curtains and carpets .... now nearly 15 years old!) but first action of the new OO is to replace and replace.

Also when people buy a home, apart from decorating / maintenance OOs buy more stuff, new sofas, beds, furniture in general, when renting people do not bother as it might not fit in the next place for get damaged when moved. More crockery, more books, more 'toys'.

BTL is a drag on the economy and reduces the average quality fo housing stock in the UK IHMO.

Thats all small beer really, the true damage done is the general increase in housing costs and the attendant reduction in disposable income which in turn reduces high street demand and ultimately job prospects and security. Widespread BTL in the lynch-pin of our rentier economy which puts a glass ceiling living standards as any increases in earnings or buying power get absorbed into rents.

Edited by goldbug9999

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Yes, lucky us. Schlepping up to London to do cheap nasty work for cheap nasty people.

At least people that pay for their own tradesmen are happy to pay for quality. Trust me, the landlords couldn't care less.

The sheer amount of once grand London property that has been converted into flats/HMO quickly, cheaply, and badly over the years probably did more for the Polish economy than ours.

You will have a hard time finding a cheap electrition

BTL has destroyed were I was brought up. Entire streets are now to let...

The social ships people from all over the UK to fill them, its ruined any community there once was.

So sad.

Your are not from Blackpool by any chance are you. Destroyed is the right word for large areas of the town now almost 100% BTL/HMO.

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This is the broken window fallacy.

Crime creates jobs, for fences, insurance companies and defence lawyers; Low level corruption supports plenty of people in the third world, and even ISIS has a supply chain.

The only difference between these other economically damaging activities and landlording, is that landlords destroy exactly jobs they pretend to create.

Put and end to crime and there'll be fewer criminal lawyers, those jobs will be replaced with something else. Get rid of landlords and there will be more builders, more electricians, more household goods sold and less homelessness.

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BTL takes away far more jobs than it creates. Do renters improve the gardens, put in decking, buy plants etc NO. Do they replace carpets, white goods, decorate etc NO. When properties where we live have gone from BTL to OO then there has generally been new kitchens, new flooring, lots of painting, new bathrooms .... remember the phrase from HUTH .... 'it's good enought for a rental' with the implication that you as a LL would, if it was your home, want it improved or replaced but renters will have to make do. Nothing replaced in the rentals since they were newly build (we know because all the flats had the same curtains and carpets .... now nearly 15 years old!) but first action of the new OO is to replace and replace.

Also when people buy a home, apart from decorating / maintenance OOs buy more stuff, new sofas, beds, furniture in general, when renting people do not bother as it might not fit in the next place for get damaged when moved. More crockery, more books, more 'toys'.

BTL is a drag on the economy and reduces the average quality fo housing stock in the UK IHMO.

Don't disagree, the rise of BTL was probably sufficiently slow for the job implications to have not been noticed. What I'm saying is that the government doesn't want the non BTL LL statistical and political fallout of killing BTL in one fell swoop.

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Thanks for articulating my muddled thoughts, beginning to form as I also wandered around my old haunts recently. What I spotted was not mainstream btl per se, but holiday homes in a seaside resort. Found two laundries in what would have been businesses that actually served the town (one was a printers before). These I guess are servicing the bed linen from holiday lets. Then there are the shops, at least three, that serve to rent out said properties.

I would think that in the case of holiday lets that aren't divided into smaller units as btl are, then the maintainance is not significantly more. But also think there is a lot of others getting work out of it all. So, yes, I agree with your analysis, letting property, in whatever form, is too valuable to let it go pop

Holiday lets are a strange thing.

It used to very hard to borrow to buy a holiday let. Then, with banks wanting to go bust they slackened standars, seeing a boom in 2002 to 2007ish.

Now holiday let finances has returned to literally a couple of small building societies.

Why? Its a sht business, with terrible cash flow. Despite the claims, you can only bank on school holidays 16 weeks a year. Then theressorting out cleaners, repairs etc.

They are lightly taxed. But i theres so many, that cause so many problems, youcan expect them to be subject to rates.

How do people - mainly from Batley and Wakey in Whitbys case - buy them? Savings and equity sithdrawal. They are so exposed its insane.

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Autumns benefit cap willtake another 200/month from benefits,deducted from housing benefit.

Exprct benefits tobe withdrawn from non uk nationals, followed by major benefit reductions.

Shuffling people around does nothing. Removing HB so it matches local wages.

14 years on , we are still unravelling Browns insane spending.

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Kill BTL and there will still be buyers and there will still be estate agents. There will be more sales than there are at present, as former BTLs change hands. Currently every property lost to a BTLer is locked away from the market for a very long time, whereas first time buyers turn into second time buyers soon enough.

I think owner occupiers are more likely to have more repairs done and probably are willing to pay more. They certainly spend more time and money in B&Q, DFS and Ikea than tenants and landlords do. Every homeowner I know is planning or doing some kind of DIY or some renovation project or has a roof that needs fixed.

I couldn't even get the letting agents managing my property to send someone round to plug in a washing machine.

BTL needs to be taxed into the ground to free up properties for owner occupation. Otherwise the next election and the one after are going to be swung by renters and there will be even bigger changes forced on politicians.

When does Parliament's ridiculous summer break end? When is the autumn statement?

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BTL is being tax into the ground. Expect basic rate to be removed.

Followed by much higher rates due to basel3.

Edited by spyguy

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BTL is being tax in ghe grlund. Expect basic rate to be removed.

Followed by much higher rates due to basel3.

A rather slow motion nuke so far. Where I am looking, there was a small blip as a few sold up near the start of the year, but since then I've moved into a new rental and the letting agents I spoke to were all talking about their 'investors' expanding their 'portfolios'. So it seems a great many of them haven't got the message.

If Hammond tightens things again then maybe the penny will drop. If not, then there's no point hoping for any change before 2020, if ever.

When does Basel 3 actually happen? Wikipedia claims its already been delayed twice - 2019 may as well be next century.

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Holiday lets are a strange thing.

It used to very hard to borrow to buy a holiday let. Then, with banks wanting to go bust they slackened standars, seeing a boom in 2002 to 2007ish.

Now holiday let finances has returned to literally a couple of small building societies.

Why? Its a sht business, with terrible cash flow. Despite the claims, you can only bank on school holidays 16 weeks a year. Then theressorting out cleaners, repairs etc.

They are lightly taxed. But i theres so many, that cause so many problems, youcan expect them to be subject to rates.

How do people - mainly from Batley and Wakey in Whitbys case - buy them? Savings and equity sithdrawal. They are so exposed its insane.

Agree, but over the last few years, increases in property prices has kept them afloat. I may have posted on here previously that a great auntie of mine lived in an absolute hovel. 'Twas on the market a couple of years ago so went for a nosey. Stripped of anything original (had a fire with oven on side V Victoria) On sale for 450k. No parking. So, didn't really need to rent it out, just watch the price increas kerching

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Its managing cash flow. Even with low rates, the cash flows a killer with finance.

aunt will be mortgage free. debbie from batley with a empty holiday let in a damp yard and a 200 k mortgage is not.

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A rather slow motion nuke so far. Where I am looking, there was a small blip as a few sold up near the start of the year, but since then I've moved into a new rental and the letting agents I spoke to were all talking about their 'investors' expanding their 'portfolios'. So it seems a great many of them haven't got the message.

If Hammond tightens things again then maybe the penny will drop. If not, then there's no point hoping for any change before 2020, if ever.

When does Basel 3 actually happen? Wikipedia claims its already been delayed twice - 2019 may as well be next century.

reporting to basel3 classifications now. habe to charge more in next year.

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Its managing cash flow. Even with low rates, the cash flows a killer with finance.

aunt will be mortgage free. debbie from batley with a empty holiday let in a damp yard and a 200 k mortgage is not.

Nah, auntie only rented it which was why it was a hovel. Early example of the worst landlord in the 70/80s. Bods who bought got it for a song, arond 50k and are local. My read is that this is very much the pattern for btl and hols lets, locals getting in early. Debbie is a bit of a latecomer and is essentially screwed

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the first big hit wiyh be removal of benefits from non mationals.

Never happen. Given the discussions of msm reporting on other threads about terrist attacks and who carried them out, 'Nationals' means they come from all points of the compass. Taking away benefits will be viewed as wracist by sjws and won't be allowed to happen

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Never happen. Given the discussions of msm reporting on other threads about terrist attacks and who carried them out, 'Nationals' means they come from all points of the compass. Taking away benefits will be viewed as wracist by sjws and won't be allowed to happen

Nope. They have to cut. Benefits tax credits are the fattest pig.

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