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Converted Lurker

Could I Ask The Few Remaining Bulls On Here

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will happen to the housing market place over the next 2-3 years? It would appear that any arguement put forward as to why house prices will not fall by the Bullish opinion, has the heavy feeling of denial and not much else. For example I`m up North obviously doesn`t want prices to fall due to his exposure to the market place and the fear that a proportion of his paper wealth will simply vanish. Understandable, but rational?

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Prices will probably fall, but money will still be made.

Investors will cash in on the repossession market, helping people before they get repossessed and getting decent yielding props irrespective of capital gains (which of course will be non existent, but nobody should invest purely for capital gains anyway).

Also in the first time buyer market, people will stop buying, therefore more will rent, keeping the BTL market afloat.

Happy times for investors.

Edited by Bobby Jo

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Yes there are few bulls remaining because those of us with even moderate views were attached and frustrated by the lack of debate by some members. Just abuse and vitriol. But this is a crash site..so to be expected. I do get frustrated though how selective this forum is its sources of information. BBC, C4, Times et al are VI unless they carry a bearish article then it gets quoted here as evidence?

Only a very tiny minority of the UK population see these boards. Most of us watch ITV, BBC, C4 etc. London papers have been full of news of record profits in the City/ stock market and mega bonuses. The newspapers are not yet spreading doom and gloom, and even headlines about for example "price drops in Cambridge" were balanced out in the same article. Relocation, Relocation this week showed a couple having to put in close to asking price offer to secure the property. And to us Southerners those prices were unbelievable low....this is what the majority are seeing......There is also talk of IR rates being lowered (in the press) But recent unemployment figures are worrying......and personal debt a serious issue for many..

There will be forced sellers who will have to drop prices if they want a quick sale. But for others who have seen increases in last few years, well if they trade up surely it is all relative? many of my friends are happy to sit tight for now, or are renting out and going overseas.

Lots of discussion re new build apartments on these boards and i can see an oversupply here and how BTL investors (post SIPPS) now have less incentive to buy. Many of these apartments are small and badly designed IMO and only look great when they are box fresh new. they also tend to date very quickly. I feel the ones NOT in great locations will take a fall. (e.g in London 5 - 10 mins max from tube/rail line is what people aspire to.)

But in London, location is still working for many properties and there are lots of overseas workers renting flats (many 6 people to 2 bed flat to meet the costs) and it is unbelievable how many people are working here illegally. they need to rent somewhere?? The City is still Europe's chosen financial centre and again this creates rental demand.

Can see how lack of out of area investments could knock down prices outside of London - i do not know how Northern market is doing, so can not comment......

To sum up: i do not see 50 -70% drops as discussed on these boards, UK wide at the same pace. Liverpool (as has been discussed here) may drop hugely? i do not feel great stock in central London will fall to these levels. I do not see any huge increases at all in London for next couple of years.

But a few more terrorist attacks and the whole mood could change ???????

Edited by beenhearingthisforyears

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?

      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%

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