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Barnsey

Rics Price-Growth Index Falls To Lowest Level In Three Years

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-10/brexit-hits-u-k-housing-as-property-sales-drop-most-since-2008

The London-based group said new buyer inquiries fell for a fourth month, while its index of sales is pointing to the fastest decline in transactions since the global financial crisis in 2008. Prices continued to rise, but at the slowest pace in three years. Just 5 percent more surveyors recorded an increase than a fall, compared with 15 percent in June.

The recent drop in demand in the RICS index is also related to a government tax change in April, which saw landlords rush to the market in the first quarter to avoid a higher levy on purchases of investment properties. In London, house prices are falling outright, RICS said.

RICS report for July:

http://www.rics.org/Global/7._WEB_%20July_2016_RICS_UK_Residential_Market_Survey_qs.pdf

Edited by Barnsey

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Prices continued to rise, LOL.

Funnily enough, that was the angle the BBC focused on, with house prices 'pausing for breath' in July and set to soar again within 12 months.

I, for one, shall not be filling my boots...

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Funnily enough, that was the angle the BBC focused on, with house prices 'pausing for breath' in July and set to soar again within 12 months.

I, for one, shall not be filling my boots...

And they managed to bring Brexit into the mix, sounds as is if its to infinity once its stopped pausing for breath.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-37037964

The UK housing market paused for breath after the Brexit vote, but could take off again over the next 12 months, a poll of surveyors suggests.

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The world is turning to nutcase politicians to vent there anger, and I for one totally get it, they don;t really support the Trump's and Farage's of this world, they do not really want to go far right or even far left, just average working people want to be heard.

Yes we love the Blairs and Camerons of this world the ones who talk about the centre ground and people like you lap it up, then they print money, drop interest rates to the lowest levels in history, have open door immigration policy, export millions of skilled jobs to Asia, go round the world bombing people etc etc... So very middle ground.

People want common sense policy that benefits them, Trump and Farage offer this, the centre grounders you claim that we all want have only ever offered extremism.

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Saw this on BBC news this morning. Some business burd talking about it. Went through all the info above and then said "But there is some GOOD NEWS for HOMEBUYERS" and went on to talk about FTB mortgages being better or some other guff.

Its incredible - after all that's gone on - so many people still don't seem able to grasp that potentially falling prices are GOOD for a homebuyer. It really is ******ing insane.

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Saw this on BBC news this morning. Some business burd talking about it. Went through all the info above and then said "But there is some GOOD NEWS for HOMEBUYERS" and went on to talk about FTB mortgages being better or some other guff.

Its incredible - after all that's gone on - so many people still don't seem able to grasp that potentially falling prices are GOOD for a homebuyer. It really is ******ing insane.

FTBers get it thats why buyers are at record lows. Its just the BBC do not get it yet.

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You do realise, if we did see a drop in the housing market it would not only be blamed on the referendum but be the reason we won't be allowed to sign Article 50.

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FTBers get it thats why buyers are at record lows. Its just the BBC do not get it yet.

I hope so. I still think there are many brainwashed FTB's who still swallow all the bull.

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Hmm, looks like bad news to me. RICS has been reliable in the past as a forward indicator.

They

are slightly more optimistic about the twelve month outlook, upgrading their estimates for price growth relative to June.

predicting only a brief stagnation in 2016 but overall YoY growth to not fall below 3%.

10% nominal falls, looking next to impossible IMO in next 18 months. Unless A50 is unexpectedly triggered at NY. (Not likely)

bgs61R4.png

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YoY growth to not fall below 3%.

Can we be sure that they are not just lying? Remember what Danny Dorling stated in that video posted elsewhere on this forum: even the VIs talking about a 10-20% drop are actually talking the market up! HPC won't happen in isolation, it will decimate the entire industry: EAs, builders, mortgage brokers etc etc... These guys must be in the fight of their lives trying to ward off HPC.

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Can we be sure that they are not just lying? Remember what Danny Dorling stated in that video posted elsewhere on this forum: even the VIs talking about a 10-20% drop are actually talking the market up! HPC won't happen in isolation, it will decimate the entire industry: EAs, builders, mortgage brokers etc etc... These guys must be in the fight of their lives trying to ward off HPC.

You only can look at past performance to see what confidence you have in the data. Looks spot on to me.

http://i.imgur.com/f3Jeny5.png

Reason RICS is taken seriously on this board and other places, is that their leading forecasts have generally been spot on in terms of direction of the market. You can distrust them if you want, but unless you have a proven more reliable forward indictor, not sure why you would discount it.

Edited by mubes

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Reason RICS is taken seriously on this board and other places, is that their leading forecasts have generally been spot on in terms of direction of the market. You can distrust them if you want, but unless you have a proven more reliable forward indictor, not sure why you would discount it.

I think it'a really a terrible idea to offer your own view as the view of "this board", something which none of us are really in any position to assess. IMO the board is at its best when people simply offer their own view (bolstered by a bit of evidence where appropriate) and therefore it really adds nothing of value to other posters to include an appeal to the authority of the mystical "board" (which you're not going to be able to back up with evidence).

In my opinion RICS enjoys a modest reputation as an ever so slightly forward looking indicator, but it jinks up and down even when the market doesn't; it's noisy and it certainly isn't always "spot on". However, it doesn't appear to be biased towards always seeing sunny uplands for house prices even when doom and gloom looks more likely.

RICS_vs_halifax_2813798c.jpg

Source

Edited by Bland Unsight

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I think it'a really a terrible idea to offer your own view as the view of "this board", something which none of us are really in any position to assess. IMO the board is at its best when people simply offer their own view (bolstered by a bit of evidence where appropriate) and therefore it really adds nothing of value to other posters to include an appeal to the authority of the mystical "board" (which you're not going to be able to back up with evidence).

In my opinion RICS enjoys a modest reputation as an ever so slightly forward looking indicator, but it jinks up and down even when the market doesn't; it's noisy and it certainly isn't always "spot on". However, it doesn't appear to be biased towards always seeing sunny uplands for house prices even when doom and gloom looks more likely.

RICS_vs_halifax_2813798c.jpg

Source

Apologies. My mistake. Of course there must be people who distrust it. I stand corrected on that.

Though your graph seems to suggest it is better than modest. In simple terms of binary market direction on 3 month basis, it looks pretty good to me on average. Especially if you take a SMA

Edited by mubes

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You only can look at past performance to see what confidence you have in the data. Looks spot on to me.

Up to 2010 yes (so through the early stages of the Credit Crunch and response). Since then it looks like they have over-estimated growth and under-estimated falls.

I agree that it is still one of the best forward-looking indicators out there though and to me this says RICS believes that the fallout of the Brexit vote on house prices will be short-lived.

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"This board thinks this or that", the mark of the Troll.

Troll or not, point stands.

Yes they overshoot, but RICS are very rarely wrong about whether growth will be positive or negative in near future.

Which is ultimately what this board is all about. Up or down.

Edited by mubes

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Apologies. My mistake. Of course there must be people who distrust it. I stand corrected on that.

Though your graph seems to suggest it is better than modest. In simple terms of binary market direction on 3 month basis, it looks pretty good to me?

Much depends on what is in the autumn statement and what Mrs Mays housing policy is going to be,

Price of houses seems to be a govt policy for as long as they have enough control over the market.

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Up to 2010 yes (so through the early stages of the Credit Crunch and response). Since then it looks like they have over-estimated growth and under-estimated falls.

I agree that it is still one of the best forward-looking indicators out there though and to me this says RICS believes that the fallout of the Brexit vote on house prices will be short-lived.

That RICS' belief makes sense in that their numbers are showing low supply and low demand cancelling each other out, so it tells them prices aren't going to move much in the near future.

However, their numbers can't see 'pent-up supply' building behind the dam. IMO we can expect that to come in the form of a BTL panic sell-off.

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That RICS' belief makes sense in that their numbers are showing low supply and low demand cancelling each other out, so it tells them prices aren't going to move much in the near future.

However, their numbers can't see 'pent-up supply' building behind the dam. IMO we can expect that to come in the form of a BTL panic sell-off.

Just to trolll....

so does it follow equally that their numbers can't see 'pent up demand' building behind the dam either? Lots of people are saving. Lots of people want to buy but are waiting it out.

Whats to say that any BTL sell off won't be safely absorbed by some of this demand (people on here for eg) poking their heads out. Hard to see much downward pressure on prices when there is clearly so much demand lying patiently.

Edited by mubes

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Just to trolll....

so does it follow equally that their numbers can't see 'pent up demand' building behind the dam either? Lots of people are saving. Lots of people want to buy but are waiting it out.

Whats to say that any BTL sell off won't be safely absorbed by some of this demand (people on here for eg) poking their heads out. Hard to see much downward pressure on prices when there is clearly so much demand lying patiently.

Ah, but the pent-up demand is from MMR-constrained aspiring FTBs, so 95%* of them won't be able to pay current prices set by the BTL demand boom.

The 5%* that can are the richest and so when they leave their rentals to move into owner-occupation it thins the pool of the desirable tenants for BTLers and rents start to drop (as is happening in London).

Latest CML figures show there were 4,900 more loans to FTBs in June 2016 than in June 2015, against 100 more loans to movers and 4,400 fewer loans to BLTers, which could suggest stock transfer from BTL to FTB.

*95% and 5% only rough figures for argument's sake.

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Of course the RICS forecast makes sense in the context that nothing has materially changed since the referendum. Not only have we not left the EU, we haven't even begun the process of leaving the EU. Sentiment has taken a hit, for sure, but is that alone enough to keep house prices falling well into next year?

Just for clarity, I am hoping they are falling well into next year!

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Of course the RICS forecast makes sense in the context that nothing has materially changed since the referendum. Not only have we not left the EU, we haven't even begun the process of leaving the EU. Sentiment has taken a hit, for sure, but is that alone enough to keep house prices falling well into next year?

Just for clarity, I am hoping they are falling well into next year!

Agreed of course. But some were hoping that sentiment alone would cause negative growth in the interim. But this reports doesn't support that, which is disapointing to some, especially those who predict further stimulus/props, and were counting on sentiment in the short term for a window.

Edited by mubes

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