The Masked Tulip Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 I am wondering how soon Carney's hand will be forced. Will take a lot though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 (edited) I am wondering how soon Carney's hand will be forced. Will take a lot though. Do you not just think its Britain's turn to have its currency weakened, just as it was the Euro last year and the US the year before. I'm expecting the Euro to take the baton in the coming months, though the US could if it comes up with an excuse to lower rates and print more, namely Trump winning the election. Carney has never raised interest rates in his career as a central bankster, nothing will force him to raise rates. Edited August 9, 2016 by Crumbless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knock out johnny Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 So who's the winning currency if they are all devaluing in a cycle Or is it a game so the fx dealers make a killing jumping from currency to currency Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LC1 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Or is it a game so the fx dealers make a killing jumping from currency to currency You win a prize! Cartel tactics, for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 It's a currency war where everyone is devaluing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 It's a currency war where everyone is devaluing. That's an impossibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thecrashingisles Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Do you not just think its Britain's turn to have its currency weakened, just as it was the Euro last year and the US the year before. I'm expecting the Euro to take the baton in the coming months, though the US could if it comes up with an excuse to lower rates and print more, namely Trump winning the election. Carney has never raised interest rates in his career as a central bankster, nothing will force him to raise rates. If Trump wins he'll fire Janet Yellen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allez_L'OM Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 If Trump wins he'll fire Janet Yellen. £20 says you're wrong. Up for it ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 £20 says you're wrong. Up for it ? http://fortune.com/2016/04/19/donald-trump-yellen-fed-debt/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Do you not just think its Britain's turn to have its currency weakened, just as it was the Euro last year and the US the year before. I'm expecting the Euro to take the baton in the coming months, though the US could if it comes up with an excuse to lower rates and print more, namely Trump winning the election. Carney has never raised interest rates in his career as a central bankster, nothing will force him to raise rates. Well HSBC have just released a forecast that the £ will reach parity with the Euro by the end of 2017. Of course that's based on the assumption that Brexit will permanently damage the economy, a view you don't share. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Well HSBC have just released a forecast that the £ will reach parity with the Euro by the end of 2017. Of course that's based on the assumption that Brexit will permanently damage the economy, a view you don't share. Permanently? Seems to ignore the issues in the Eurozone. Only 4.5 months to wait to see if they're correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Confusion of VIs Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Permanently? Seems to ignore the issues in the Eurozone. Only 4.5 months to wait to see if they're correct. More likely the HSBC analysts (who by the way do have a pretty good record on FX forecasts) have taken that into account and concluded that the UKs combination of long standing and long self inflicted problems are worse. btw this is 2016 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 2017. My bad. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 More likely the HSBC analysts (who by the way do have a pretty good record on FX forecasts) have taken that into account and concluded that the UKs combination of long standing and long self inflicted problems are worse. btw this is 2016 If they're so good at predicting they would have seen Brexit coming, I did and won a full £100! There is just too much uncertainty both in Blighty and in Europe to hang your hat on any predictions even 4.5 months from now let alone 16.5 months from now. Like i say if Trump wins i can see the powers that be using it as an excuse to debase the USD immediately. And he has shorter odds than Brexit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 That's an impossibility. No it's not - ALL major currencies could certainly devalue concurrently - against tangible assets, that is. And keeping asset prices high is and has been the name of the game for 'economic policy' for some time now. Other currencies printing is a free pass for you to print too. There might be a lag whereby one currency goes down faster than the rest and devalues relatively but it'll all equalise out eventually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Funn3r Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Well HSBC have just released a forecast that the £ will reach parity with the Euro by the end of 2017. Of course that's based on the assumption that Brexit will permanently damage the economy, a view you don't share. INo need towait for parity... in Gatwick this morning Moneycorp's rate board was selling Euros at 1.02 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 No it's not - ALL major currencies could certainly devalue concurrently - against tangible assets, that is. Yes but that's not what i replied to, even then the nations with more tangible assets will come out on top and have the stronger currency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 Yes but that's not what i replied to, even then the nations with more tangible assets will come out on top and have the stronger currency. Define 'stronger' ... Currencies fluctuate against each other all the time. I would define a 'strong' currency as one which does not depreciate against real assets over the long term or at least only depreciates slowly. ie. One that keeps its spending power. Currently, no fiat currency can be said to maintain spending power over the long term and even the de-facto global reserve, the US Dollar, has lost purchasing power dramatically over the decades. The whole raison d'etre of fiat currency is to allow TPTB to devalue/print as it suits them. It's a wealth transfer scam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 I would define a 'strong' currency as one which does not depreciate against real assets over the long term or at least only depreciates slowly. ie. One that keeps its spending power. Think we've gone off what i said, basically all i said is every nation cannot debase its currency all at once. But yes i agree they can debase it vs assets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oracle Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 No it's not - ALL major currencies could certainly devalue concurrently - against tangible assets, that is. And keeping asset prices high is and has been the name of the game for 'economic policy' for some time now. Other currencies printing is a free pass for you to print too. There might be a lag whereby one currency goes down faster than the rest and devalues relatively but it'll all equalise out eventually. asset prices are not high by historical standards. only credit-driven purchases like houses. raw commodities,and the machinery required to extract/utilise them are very,very low at the moment. sterling crisis is mainly down to bad economic policy from UK.gov for the past 20 years or so. why is is that germany(which has a bigger industrial base than the uk by about a factor of 2), is running record surplusses? you would have thought that if input prices were so high they would be suffering the most? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 The problem with the UK it has all its eggs in one financial basket in one place......it needs to diversify and distribute....spread it about a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royw6 Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 (edited) I suppose if things get really bad, and the £ becomes close to/or actually worthless, we could unofficially adopt a hard currency like the euro similarly to how Zimbabwe and north Cyprus does. Edited August 9, 2016 by Royw6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crumbless Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 (edited) I suppose if things get really bad, and the £ becomes close to/or actually worthless, we could unofficially adopt a hard currency like the euro similarly to how Zimbabwe and north Cyprus does. Funny man! https://www.ft.com/content/9a45a960-e6ac-11e5-a09b-1f8b0d268c39 ECB cuts rates to new low and expands QE Edited August 9, 2016 by Crumbless Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikhail Liebenstein Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 If they're so good at predicting they would have seen Brexit coming, I did and won a full £100! There is just too much uncertainty both in Blighty and in Europe to hang your hat on any predictions even 4.5 months from now let alone 16.5 months from now. Like i say if Trump wins i can see the powers that be using it as an excuse to debase the USD immediately. And he has shorter odds than Brexit. £100 - was it worth it? The only good thing for me is that devaluation is making my pension fund look healthier. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Will! Posted August 9, 2016 Share Posted August 9, 2016 asset prices are not high by historical standards. only credit-driven purchases like houses. raw commodities,and the machinery required to extract/utilise them are very,very low at the moment. The price of gold seems quite high at the moment by historical standards. Does this imply that gold purchases are credit driven? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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