Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
The Masked Tulip

Are We Having A Slow Motion Sterling Crisis Before Our Eyes?

Recommended Posts

I am wondering how soon Carney's hand will be forced. Will take a lot though.

Do you not just think its Britain's turn to have its currency weakened, just as it was the Euro last year and the US the year before.

I'm expecting the Euro to take the baton in the coming months, though the US could if it comes up with an excuse to lower rates and print more, namely Trump winning the election.

Carney has never raised interest rates in his career as a central bankster, nothing will force him to raise rates.

Edited by Crumbless

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Or is it a game so the fx dealers make a killing jumping from currency to currency

You win a prize! Cartel tactics, for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you not just think its Britain's turn to have its currency weakened, just as it was the Euro last year and the US the year before.

I'm expecting the Euro to take the baton in the coming months, though the US could if it comes up with an excuse to lower rates and print more, namely Trump winning the election.

Carney has never raised interest rates in his career as a central bankster, nothing will force him to raise rates.

If Trump wins he'll fire Janet Yellen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you not just think its Britain's turn to have its currency weakened, just as it was the Euro last year and the US the year before.

I'm expecting the Euro to take the baton in the coming months, though the US could if it comes up with an excuse to lower rates and print more, namely Trump winning the election.

Carney has never raised interest rates in his career as a central bankster, nothing will force him to raise rates.

Well HSBC have just released a forecast that the £ will reach parity with the Euro by the end of 2017. Of course that's based on the assumption that Brexit will permanently damage the economy, a view you don't share.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well HSBC have just released a forecast that the £ will reach parity with the Euro by the end of 2017. Of course that's based on the assumption that Brexit will permanently damage the economy, a view you don't share.

Permanently?

Seems to ignore the issues in the Eurozone.

Only 4.5 months to wait to see if they're correct.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Permanently?

Seems to ignore the issues in the Eurozone.

Only 4.5 months to wait to see if they're correct.

More likely the HSBC analysts (who by the way do have a pretty good record on FX forecasts) have taken that into account and concluded that the UKs combination of long standing and long self inflicted problems are worse.

btw this is 2016

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More likely the HSBC analysts (who by the way do have a pretty good record on FX forecasts) have taken that into account and concluded that the UKs combination of long standing and long self inflicted problems are worse.

btw this is 2016

If they're so good at predicting they would have seen Brexit coming, I did and won a full £100!

There is just too much uncertainty both in Blighty and in Europe to hang your hat on any predictions even 4.5 months from now let alone 16.5 months from now.

Like i say if Trump wins i can see the powers that be using it as an excuse to debase the USD immediately. And he has shorter odds than Brexit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's an impossibility.

No it's not - ALL major currencies could certainly devalue concurrently - against tangible assets, that is.

And keeping asset prices high is and has been the name of the game for 'economic policy' for some time now.

Other currencies printing is a free pass for you to print too. There might be a lag whereby one currency goes down faster than the rest and devalues relatively but it'll all equalise out eventually.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well HSBC have just released a forecast that the £ will reach parity with the Euro by the end of 2017. Of course that's based on the assumption that Brexit will permanently damage the economy, a view you don't share.

INo need towait for parity... in Gatwick this morning Moneycorp's rate board was selling Euros at 1.02

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No it's not - ALL major currencies could certainly devalue concurrently - against tangible assets, that is.

Yes but that's not what i replied to, even then the nations with more tangible assets will come out on top and have the stronger currency.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes but that's not what i replied to, even then the nations with more tangible assets will come out on top and have the stronger currency.

Define 'stronger' ... Currencies fluctuate against each other all the time.

I would define a 'strong' currency as one which does not depreciate against real assets over the long term or at least only depreciates slowly. ie. One that keeps its spending power.

Currently, no fiat currency can be said to maintain spending power over the long term and even the de-facto global reserve, the US Dollar, has lost purchasing power dramatically over the decades.

The whole raison d'etre of fiat currency is to allow TPTB to devalue/print as it suits them. It's a wealth transfer scam.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I would define a 'strong' currency as one which does not depreciate against real assets over the long term or at least only depreciates slowly. ie. One that keeps its spending power.

Think we've gone off what i said, basically all i said is every nation cannot debase its currency all at once. But yes i agree they can debase it vs assets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No it's not - ALL major currencies could certainly devalue concurrently - against tangible assets, that is.

And keeping asset prices high is and has been the name of the game for 'economic policy' for some time now.

Other currencies printing is a free pass for you to print too. There might be a lag whereby one currency goes down faster than the rest and devalues relatively but it'll all equalise out eventually.

asset prices are not high by historical standards.

only credit-driven purchases like houses.

raw commodities,and the machinery required to extract/utilise them are very,very low at the moment.

sterling crisis is mainly down to bad economic policy from UK.gov for the past 20 years or so.

why is is that germany(which has a bigger industrial base than the uk by about a factor of 2), is running record surplusses?

you would have thought that if input prices were so high they would be suffering the most?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with the UK it has all its eggs in one financial basket in one place......it needs to diversify and distribute....spread it about a bit. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suppose if things get really bad, and the £ becomes close to/or actually worthless, we could unofficially adopt a hard currency like the euro similarly to how Zimbabwe and north Cyprus does.

Edited by Royw6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If they're so good at predicting they would have seen Brexit coming, I did and won a full £100!

There is just too much uncertainty both in Blighty and in Europe to hang your hat on any predictions even 4.5 months from now let alone 16.5 months from now.

Like i say if Trump wins i can see the powers that be using it as an excuse to debase the USD immediately. And he has shorter odds than Brexit.

£100 - was it worth it?

The only good thing for me is that devaluation is making my pension fund look healthier.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   26 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.