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Ephraim Bubble Blower

The Social Implications Of An Hpc

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I firmly believe that the house price bubble has not helped the economy fundamentally, and has instead produced distortions and imbalances which will become apparent in due course. However, it has clearly given many ill-advised homeowners the 'perception' that it has been good for them, and has encouraged them to take on more debt than they should, and to enjoy a lifestyle which the good old fashioned virtues of earning and saving would never have given them.

I am genuinely concerned that despite the above, and despite some 70 or 80% of the country's adult population being homeowners, the bubble has not coincided with an improvement in the 'quality of life' factors which can make or break communities. Instead, the bubble has coincided with the rise of the 'chav' and the ASBO, increases in violent crime, a media that glamourises 'bling' and demonises more productive endeavours, and a general sense that a lack of respect pervades the UK. So here is my point - how BAD would it get if the house price bubble burst? I'm genuinely fearful that the country could become essentially lawless (to many people it already feels this way - witness pointless murders of mild-mannered solicitors in London streets). Picture that nightmarish family that owns the house across the road from your rented flat? Now picture them in negative equity, red bills scattered over the doorstep and bailiffs on their trail.

I consider myself essentially 'neutral' on the housing market from a financial standpoint. If prices keep rising, then yields will keep falling and I will be better off renting and saving the difference. But if they fall, an outcome that most visitors to this site are hoping for, then I question whether we would really be 'winners' in any sense? We may not have the bailiffs on our trail, but we don't live in a vacuum and the circumstances of the rest of the community and their reaction to it will affect us all, invariably in a negative way.

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Divorce rates will soar... they did last time and I expect it will be worse this time.

I know I will be accused of being sexist but many of those women who insisted on MEWing for that beige make-over, new kitchen, bathroom, etc, etc, will simply pack their bags and walk out on their husbands.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
I'm genuinely fearful that the country could become essentially lawless

Given an absentee and indifferent police force, an ineffectual judiciary and a responsibility free, consequence free lifestyle promoted by the "powers that be" (not just the government) we aren't far off.

Many laws (apart from road traffic laws) simply aren't enforced.

If I were to be burgled/mugged today, what would be the point of calling the police? Would they even turn up? Would they do anything? Or would they be "too busy"?

Detection rate at all time low.

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.....However, it has clearly given many ill-advised homeowners the 'perception' that it has been good for them, and has encouraged them to take on more debt than they should, and to enjoy a lifestyle which the good old fashioned virtues of earning and saving would never have given them.

the thing is, people HAVE enjoyed a higher quality of life as a result of HPI, in terms of being able to buy desirable but depreciating assets.

Now, the more idealistic among us will feel this is not true quality of life, but that is a measure that is dependent upon perception.

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the thing is, people HAVE enjoyed a higher quality of life as a result of HPI, in terms of being able to buy desirable but depreciating assets.

Now, the more idealistic among us will feel this is not true quality of life, but that is a measure that is dependent upon perception.

I agree but it is only via the consumption of goods that 'quality of life' has increased, but all the non-financial aspects of 'quality of life' have got nothing but worse in my view.

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I agree but it is only via the consumption of goods that 'quality of life' has increased, but all the non-financial aspects of 'quality of life' have got nothing but worse in my view.

maybe, but I'm not sure of the stats on all the things you mention. Certainly the press enjoy making us feel scared about all those negative things, but how true are they?

National crime rate stats show a decline. Of course crime covers a huge range of offences. Some of this decline I believe is due to changes in procedure, some due to classification changes, and some no doubt due to further massaging. However, I don't doubt, in a society where people FEEL more wealthy due to HPI, crime WILL fall, since those likely to commit financially motivated crime will feel less motivated due to due to the feeling of wealth effect. However, I do feel crime against the person is more likely to rise, due to social differentials, and a sadly still pervasive sexual and racial inequality / seperation / unintegration.

Statistially, both education and health have improved :rolleyes: . Now we could discuss for ever more about the changes in exam difficulty levels against education investment ( i know my view!) and about actual NHS improvements vs. budget.

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maybe, but I'm not sure of the stats on all the things you mention. Certainly the press enjoy making us feel scared about all those negative things, but how true are they?

National crime rate stats show a decline. Of course crime covers a huge range of offences. Some of this decline I believe is due to changes in procedure, some due to classification changes, and some no doubt due to further massaging. However, I don't doubt, in a society where people FEEL more wealthy due to HPI, crime WILL fall, since those likely to commit financially motivated crime will feel less motivated due to due to the feeling of wealth effect. However, I do feel crime against the person is more likely to rise, due to social differentials, and a sadly still pervasive sexual and racial inequality / seperation / unintegration.

Statistially, both education and health have improved :rolleyes: . Now we could discuss for ever more about the changes in exam difficulty levels against education investment ( i know my view!) and about actual NHS improvements vs. budget.

Like you, I'd be very cynical about the real crime situation and the extent of true improvements in education and healthcare outcomes.

Anecdotally, and speaking as someone who has lived in New York for the past two years, on my returns to the UK I always note the general feeling of impending violence which I never feel in the US, despite their obviously higher official crime rates. You rarely run the risk of walking past a pub/bar and stumbling across a load of drunk lads looking for trouble.

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The statistics show that violence has decreased and I believe it. Despite the headlines inner London feels to me less violent than it was 10 - 15 years ago.

Who remembers Brixton, Peckham, Stoke Newington, back then???

However I do think that us Brits are always up for a bit of argy bargy and a good scrap. Whether it is rugby, football or simply drink, there is something about young male Brits that tends towards semi violence. Not nasty stuff but letting of steam.

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Divorce rates will soar... they did last time and I expect it will be worse this time.

I know I will be accused of being sexist but many of those women who insisted on MEWing for that beige make-over, new kitchen, bathroom, etc, etc, will simply pack their bags and walk out on their husbands.

The story in the papers round here a year and a half ago or so was that so many middle-aged women were potentially rich from property (certainly enough to fund the rest of their lives) that it was leading to a growing divorce rate as they romped off with the cash from the divorce settlement. :o

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Who remembers Brixton, Peckham, Stoke Newington, back then???

I had a job in the late 1980s going around various UK locations that had rioted or might riot working out the best sites for the Parachute Regiment to be dropped into. What a laff that was. The best intelligence on impending danger was when the local milkmen noticed a decline in the number of milk bottles being returned - we found entire flats on some estates full of milk bottles.

My fav story was walking up a flight of stairs in one flat comple to see a man about to swing an axe against a door. Oh joy! I remember the then Home Secretary visting us on one occasion and I think he had the 1st. Armoured Division to protect him. We were sent to one locale where the local Police point blank refused to go along with us.

The story in the papers round here a year and a half ago or so was that so many middle-aged women were potentially rich from property (certainly enough to fund the rest of their lives) that it was leading to a growing divorce rate as they romped off with the cash from the divorce settlement.

You mean they are married, in homes that have soared in price and are now thinking that if they get out now then they will walk away with a huge wad of cash... so many are doing so???

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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I don't know if this offers you a glimmer of hope, but the country didn't sink into lawlessness during the last recession/crash...

I fear that the size of the fall necessary and the obscene levels of personal debt, combined with a government that will not be able to spend us out of recession (they have already spent us into it), will result in a far more difficult situation this time. This will be a very harsh correction in which the UK will finally realise that we are no longer a credible world economic power. After all we make verty little that anyone wants and have been living far beyond our means for far too long.

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TMT,

You mean they are married, in homes that have soared in price and are now thinking that if they get out now then they will walk away with a huge wad of cash... so many are doing so???

Yes, that is exactly what was being reported in the local rag, mind you if I remember correctly there was also a nice little promo for the local solictor too (I think that is where the divorcce figures came from).

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Divorce rates will soar... they did last time and I expect it will be worse this time.

I know I will be accused of being sexist but many of those women who insisted on MEWing for that beige make-over, new kitchen, bathroom, etc, etc, will simply pack their bags and walk out on their husbands.

accused of being sexist??? with your avatar???? Nooooooo waaaaaayyyyyy .... :P

If you ever are, send them here, I'll give them a good spanking :lol:

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There are many benefits for long term health of this nation that will follow a severe recessionary period (after the initial pain)

* An economy on its knees knows that it cannot support any dead weight. A consensus will form regarding the future of the welfare state. Most more people will come to acdept how it has crippled us and demand action.

* Pressure will be put on fat cats and those 'with' when many will be 'without' to moderate their greed. They (those that still have a company to be boss of) ought to feel morally obliged on the grounds of social cohesion.

* Many children will grow up wanting more than the impoverished lives that many parents will be able to provide. This may promote a renewed value in school and education amongst the young as an escape route from poverty.

* In general the mind of government will becomed totally focused on the job in hand - a fair, stable and cohesive society based on hard work, family units and truly meritorious gain.

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I had a job in the late 1980s going around various UK locations that had rioted or might riot working out the best sites for the Parachute Regiment to be dropped into. What a laff that was. The best intelligence on impending danger was when the local milkmen noticed a decline in the number of milk bottles being returned - we found entire flats on some estates full of milk bottles.

My fav story was walking up a flight of stairs in one flat comple to see a man about to swing an axe against a door. Oh joy! I remember the then Home Secretary visting us on one occasion and I think he had the 1st. Armoured Division to protect him. We were sent to one locale where the local Police point blank to go along with us.

You mean they are married, in homes that have soared in price and are now thinking that if they get out now then they will walk away with a huge wad of cash... so many are doing so???

I have a feeling this is where is will be different this time. Last time the poor/disadvantage lost out the most. They just couldn't get jobs, they were pushed into crap housing estates that had been underfunded for years (cockroach infested/damp etc), they had poor education and employment prospects because they were only trained to do manufacturing/labouring. More importantly there was rampant discrimination. The one thing the tories were good at was demonising any one who wasn't a white, middle class, working, two parent household and blaming them for the ills of society.

Look at what is going to happen this time.

Poor. Homeless - no problem - have a brand new 2 bed flat - the HA are renting them off a BTL land lord (it was all the rage a while ago you know). Young and no job - don't worry - we can give you a place at University (everyones can go now you know, not like years ago) and don't worry about the fees, we will pay them for you. Oh you want a job - OK get a Job in McDonalds - we will top up your income with Tax Credits and you will be better off. You will easily be able to afford the rent on a nice 2 bed flat (because we have capped it to stop LL ripping of the HB system).

Middle class - £250K mortgage, £20K cc £15K car loan £2k overdraft - made redundant - your fecked mate sorry......

Now don't get may wrong - I am actually a fan of in work benefits, widening participation and better social housing. My point is that this time around we live in a very different society and the people who suffer the most will be those with large debts not the poorest in society.

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For those who wish to protect themselves and their loved ones in the event that the shit hits the fan and the boys in blue find themselves will be too busy protecting B.Liar and his cronies to come to your aid you may find the attached link of use ;)

link

Better to have a gun and not need it than need a gun and not have it.

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We will have poor people again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/cult/classic/bluepete...eo/video8.shtml

This clip is from 1970.

Its pretty shocking.

I don't think we will see poverty levels of this scale again in our lifetime. They were very different times.

EDIT

For anyone who really has a probem with the welfare state perhaps they should look at the clip. Poverty at a time when it was not th4e done thing to be on benefit - you got of your 'rse and worked 2/3 jobs if you had to. Didn't make much difference to those poor kids though.

Edited by 2005

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We will have poor people again.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/cult/classic/bluepete...eo/video8.shtml

This clip is from 1970.

Its pretty shocking.

I wanted to reply making a Blue Peter joke about sending in forks and spoons ... but I don't think so. Too serious a subject, too close to home. You dont see kids playing ball in the street anymore do you? Simple pleasures. What will the kids do this time if they had no electricity or batteries?

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For anyone who really has a probem with the welfare state perhaps they should look at the clip. Poverty at a time when it was not th4e done thing to be on benefit - you got of your 'rse and worked 2/3 jobs if you had to. Didn't make much difference to those poor kids though.

Are you saying that the Welfare State promotes dependence and reliance on it? All sense of pride has now gone. It is now the opposite - many are proud to be on benefit and getting away with black market/ illegal activities. On many estates only mugs work - don't they?

We need to reinstate the need to work and only support those who are genuinely incapable through no fault of there own. It cannot remain a choice not to contribute and be part of a family that just 'takes'.

Taking away the crutch of support will painfully (at first) reintroduce pride in peoples own ingenuity, endevour and resourcefulness as a concept that we would all welcome back.

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Are you saying that the Welfare State promotes dependence and reliance on it? All sense of pride has now gone. It is now the opposite - many are proud to be on benefit and getting away with black market/ illegal activities. On many estates only mugs work - don't they?

We need to reinstate the need to work and only support those who are genuinely incapable through no fault of there own. It cannot remain a choice not to contribute and be part of a family that just 'takes'.

Taking away the crutch of support will painfully (at first) reintroduce pride in peoples own ingenuity, endevour and resourcefulness as a concept that we would all welcome back.

NO - I am not saying the welfare state promotes dependence and reliance - the complete opposite.

I once worked with a social/community researcher. At the time Charles Murray had just published his book on the underclass in America and he came to the Uk and claimed that the underclass were also appearing here (welfare dependency/dropping out of society etc). So these researchers went off to a large poor council estate to try and find out how many families fitted this description - they found one.

What they did find was a lot of families struggling to make their way in life and hitting barriers all the way. One of the most interesting 'finds' was the perception of people on the estate. Many of them were desperate to get into work - they wanted to get off benefit - wanted a better life for their kids etc. But the frustration was very evident - "want to work but childcare bills come to more than I earn - can't let my kids play out because they will be picking up bad behaviour from others - want to get the kids a good education but the only school that will take our kids is a sink school etc etc"

There is a minority of people in this country who fit the bill you describe - not 'many'

It is also worth remembering that the people who do drop out of society completely and live off the black market etc do not claim benefits. The drug runners/pushers, organised benefit fraud/balck market cigs,booze and CD's etc don't live off benefits - they live off illegal earnings - that is crime - not 'benefit scrounging'

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There is a minority of people in this country who fit the bill you describe - not 'many'

It is also worth remembering that the people who do drop out of society completely and live off the black market etc do not claim benefits. The drug runners/pushers, organised benefit fraud/balck market cigs,booze and CD's etc don't live off benefits - they live off illegal earnings - that is crime - not 'benefit scrounging'

Strange that, through some dubious times i have spent in my life I have known all of the above. Mainly Dope/Coke/ecstacy dealers, all off which either signed on or claimed the sick. Ditto Baccy salesmen down the local, also on the sick, claiming housing benefit, council tax, free dental care etc.

Knew one dealer on the long term sick, when his annual review of the social to check if he was a paranoid schitzo was due, he would stick a 9 bar (9 ounces of hash) down his sock and walk throu8gh the city centre for an hour just to get his paranoia up to scratch for his evaluation.

The guys at the top dont bother with handouts, but from what I have seen the lower to middle guys in the black market especially the drug market are old hands at the benefit system, especially being on the "sick" as you dont have to sign on every 2 weeks, being asked what you do for work and you get about 50% more than if you get JSA.

No wonder unemployment is so low under Blair.

We are screwed

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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