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Are We Back In 2007? The Return Of The 300 Grand Semi...


JoeDavola
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Joe, thanks for the swift reply. Don't worry, I'm not some mystical £400K buyer either! I'm just amazed at what appears to be a solid bounce back from 2012 and am trying to work out who is buying and how. I presume that an extremely low interest rate is helping and the majority of buyers only ever looking at the monthly repayment in the near term. Perhaps I'm wrong?

A friend of mine who is a FTB bought a £175K house with a 5% deposit recently. If interest rates go up, he's doomed.

I know of three couples (all early 30's), two who have children, who have moved back in with their parents because they're struggling to save for a house.

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Honestly I'm not seeing lack of supply at the moment for 3 bed semis. Quite the opposite, but at 400k to around 550k there very little about.

I do agree with the view the EAs are trying to push everything up. I see plenty of around 250k semis but not a lot of the 400-600k detached.

Who buys theses house? Movers Joe, people with inheritances, dual working households and usually 2 professionals. It's not your average professional types, but your better than average professionals because the average paid ones are still living in the 3 bed semis at 250k.

TBH I get the impression we are of the same age. I'll probably move to a house in that price bracket. I'll probably move twice, maybe three times in total.

Part of my issue with nice-but-not-amazing houses being on for £250K is that since people aren't buying houses until they're in their 30's, and because there's low wage inflation and low interest rates, I don't think the housing 'ladder' really exists any more unless you inherit money.

I don't think most people will see a sufficient increase in their earnings to enable them to move to a bigger house several times; I think for most 30-somethings they're stretched to the point where their first house might well be their last (or their first of two).

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Part of my issue with nice-but-not-amazing houses being on for £250K is that since people aren't buying houses until they're in their 30's, and because there's low wage inflation and low interest rates, I don't think the housing 'ladder' really exists any more unless you inherit money.

I don't think most people will see a sufficient increase in their earnings to enable them to move to a bigger house several times; I think for most 30-somethings they're stretched to the point where their first house might well be their last (or their first of two).

I agree. I think for most the first will also be the last. The 4 bed dream for most "professionals" will never be realized. But for the ones who excel there's still wage growth out there, but it's all about being in a job or having a skill set that's in demand. It used to be you could get a job as an accountant, solicitor, doctor etc and expect to earn the money to buy a big house in a nice area. Dual income lending has put a stop to that a bit.

Also, not everyone is (pre brexit vote at least) was on low wage inflation. My OH has seen earnings growth of 10% for the last 8 years. Not sure it will continue now. I can see companies using brexit as an excuse to limit wage inflation for the next few years.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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Part of my issue with nice-but-not-amazing houses being on for £250K is that since people aren't buying houses until they're in their 30's, and because there's low wage inflation and low interest rates, I don't think the housing 'ladder' really exists any more unless you inherit money.

I don't think most people will see a sufficient increase in their earnings to enable them to move to a bigger house several times; I think for most 30-somethings they're stretched to the point where their first house might well be their last (or their first of two).

Pretty much sums up my thoughts on the matter. It's a case of one house and that's it. I'm not sure it's registered with the public at large.

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£550K for a (big) apartment shoved in down a side street by the Dublin Road:

http://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/CNRCJBE0012/10-11-Millenium-Court/

With magnificent views of feck all.

Do they quite literally pick a figure out of a hat? This is where prices of commercial units show how daft residential prices are. This is one I was very tempted by, but had been rented for the next 20 years:

http://www.lshauctions.co.uk/belfast/lot/45613

Edited by The_Equalizer
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Ah, come on. Who wouldn't pay that for a powerful relationship with the skyline?

Sandy row behind you, dublin road in front, office building to the right and an indian restaurant to the left.

The millionaires will be fighting over it I'm sure.

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Could you check that link please?

Links to an auction LHS

58-60 Donegall Pass, Belfast, Co. Antrim, BT7 1BU

https://img.eigroup.co.uk/media/images/106/auction/591/lot_45613_particulars.pdf?v=494f68d4-0c57-4394-a643-79f60f282f17

Sold for 212k

http://www.lshauctions.co.uk/belfast/lot/45613

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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I had this 'chat' with my wife recently. She was talking about us buying a place and doing it up and making profit so we could move again to get a better house. I had to explain that the plan only works in a bull market where prices are flying up and you have lots of money and time to invest. In N.I the ceiling price for each type of house in each area is fairly clear and in most cases money spent renovating is going to be money lost. I talked her into buying a house that will see us out, with just a few cheap tweaks here and there when the time comes. Buying once is the way forward if you can afford to get a forever home first time around. I've moved about 8-9 times in 15 years to get to the point that I can buy a nice home without a mortgage. Only nice- not expensive though.

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I'd agree that the 400-600k inventory is far from good. There are a lot of houses in there which are 100k too expensive. Once you go above this, there are a lot more options but then you find a bunch of properties which are in there £100k more than something else. Fair enough, it is worth 100k more but you would never dream of paying the price asked for the 'something else'.

In my mind, the house has to be something special to be making it towards half a million. But there are so many which have a few nice rooms and think that is enough. Or the house is big and has potential so they think it is enough. Or it is a great house on a crap site but somehow that shouldnt detract. In my view, if you are paying that much there simply should not be any glaring 'negative' points. Maybe it need not be totally perfect but anyone expecting half a million with something clearly 'missing' is a dreamer.

Incidentally, I know of a single parent medic who is one of those seeking houses in this range. Paid too much...

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I'd agree that the 400-600k inventory is far from good. There are a lot of houses in there which are 100k too expensive. Once you go above this, there are a lot more options but then you find a bunch of properties which are in there £100k more than something else. Fair enough, it is worth 100k more but you would never dream of paying the price asked for the 'something else'.

In my mind, the house has to be something special to be making it towards half a million. But there are so many which have a few nice rooms and think that is enough. Or the house is big and has potential so they think it is enough. Or it is a great house on a crap site but somehow that shouldnt detract. In my view, if you are paying that much there simply should not be any glaring 'negative' points. Maybe it need not be totally perfect but anyone expecting half a million with something clearly 'missing' is a dreamer.

Incidentally, I know of a single parent medic who is one of those seeking houses in this range. Paid too much...

But probably not a FTB. Single parent medic but 45+ years of age?

You would need to be a top grade consultant doing a fair few private hours to afford this level (600k). Or alternatively be born at the right time.

400k isn't even single junior doctor territory.

Edited by 2buyornot2buy
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But probably not a FTB. Single parent medic but 45+ years of age?

You would need to be a top grade consultant doing a fair few private hours to afford this level (600k). Or alternatively be born at the right time.

400k isn't even single junior doctor territory.

I know of a single medic who paid £335K back in 2007 which is about £430K in real terms. She had managed to save £60K mind you and was only 29. She then moved in 2012. It went on the market at £165K then.

Basically doctors who are well into the SHO level and put in the overtime can see quite a health salary or at least that's what I witnessed.

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But probably not a FTB. Single parent medic but 45+ years of age?

You would need to be a top grade consultant doing a fair few private hours to afford this level (600k). Or alternatively be born at the right time.

400k isn't even single junior doctor territory.

Think 35yo. Has had a bit of help along the way so has a deposit but we aren't talking about a 150k mortgage.

In fairness, I would know quite a few who would be couples earning 40k each. Banks are happy to lend at that sort of earning level and someone would have to be pretty frivolous not to do some saving with that sort of income.

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I know of a single medic who paid £335K back in 2007 which is about £430K in real terms. She had managed to save £60K mind you and was only 29. She then moved in 2012. It went on the market at £165K then.

Basically doctors who are well into the SHO level and put in the overtime can see quite a health salary or at least that's what I witnessed.

Exactly. But it begs the question of whether medics are a special case all on their own... which begs the question about what on earth all the complaining they do is all about!

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Think 35yo. Has had a bit of help along the way so has a deposit but we aren't talking about a 150k mortgage.

In fairness, I would know quite a few who would be couples earning 40k each. Banks are happy to lend at that sort of earning level and someone would have to be pretty frivolous not to do some saving with that sort of income.

Banks will lend a pair of £40K earners somewhere in the region of £400K? That's frightening.

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Think 35yo. Has had a bit of help along the way so has a deposit but we aren't talking about a 150k mortgage.

In fairness, I would know quite a few who would be couples earning 40k each. Banks are happy to lend at that sort of earning level and someone would have to be pretty frivolous not to do some saving with that sort of income.

All you need is a serious car habit - bmw, Mercedes, Range Rover - and you'll be a high earning pauper in no time.

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But probably not a FTB. Single parent medic but 45+ years of age?

You would need to be a top grade consultant doing a fair few private hours to afford this level (600k). Or alternatively be born at the right time.

400k isn't even single junior doctor territory.

I suspect anyone spending like that has a healthy inheritance somewhere.

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I know of a single medic who paid £335K back in 2007 which is about £430K in real terms. She had managed to save £60K mind you and was only 29. She then moved in 2012. It went on the market at £165K then.

Basically doctors who are well into the SHO level and put in the overtime can see quite a health salary or at least that's what I witnessed.

What are we talking healthy tho?

I though in this case we were talking a 400k mortgage for a single parent?

You'd need to be on 130k. That's not SHO territory. That's consultant.

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Exactly. But it begs the question of whether medics are a special case all on their own... which begs the question about what on earth all the complaining they do is all about!

Do they? I know they work pretty long hours and it's got to be very stressful, but they're better paid than most.

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Joe, thanks for the swift reply. Don't worry, I'm not some mystical £400K buyer either! I'm just amazed at what appears to be a solid bounce back from 2012 and am trying to work out who is buying and how. I presume that an extremely low interest rate is helping and the majority of buyers only ever looking at the monthly repayment in the near term. Perhaps I'm wrong?

New builds seem to be a slightly different story with those I've seen selling relatively well. BelfastVI can you confirm this is the case or otherwise?

What has become more annoying is any helpful indicators like PropertyBee and the stats on PropertyNews are now unavailable. I would love to know if the estate agents put pressure on PropertyNews for the latter.

We have to remember the average house price sold in NI is £123k, far below the £400k mark.

That breaks down to an average of £117k for existing stock and an average of £150k for New.

Its always hard to tell how the whole new build market is doing as one only really knows ones own business. Our sales are well up compared to a few years ago but we have opened up on more sites. there was a lul in sales June and July and I blame the Brexit excitement for that. Sales this month have recovered but to be honest no one knows the outrun of Brexit.

I could double my sales if I could only get planning approves out and all developers seam to be saying the same.

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