Are We Back In 2007? The Return Of The 300 Grand Semi...

[JoeDavola]

I'm now starting to see semi-detached houses in East Belfast rising towards the 300 grand mark; for example:

http://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/MCEA7006331/16-Knockdarragh-Park/390079684/

http://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/NPMCCNMNICC3392/48-Shandon-Park/390079684/

http://www.propertynews.com/Property/Belfast/TRETRH48395/194-Belmont-Road/390079684/

http://www.propertynews.com/Property/BELFAST/TRETRE75501/109-Shandon-Park/390079684/

Is it me or are these prices not utterly ridiculous, and back in the same ballpark as things were at the peak? Are people really coughing up 300 grand to live in a semi in East Belfast?

[nornironsi]

As with everything, if people are willing to pay that for them then that is what they are worth in today's market. No clue if they will sell at that price of course.

[2buyornot2buy]

As with everything, if people are willing to pay that for them then that is what they are worth in today's market. No clue if they will sell at that price of course.

If the banks are willing to lend to people willing to service that debt, that's what they are worth.

Bring back sensible lending multiples. MMR hasn't really worked out it seems.

It fairness though, they all look like extended 4 beds.

Edited August 6, 2016 by 2buyornot2buy

[nornironsi]

They are worth whatever people are willing to pay for them. They look like extended properties as you said - nice big family houses. You may not think they are worth what they are asking but perhaps somebody else will.

[2buyornot2buy]

They are worth whatever people are willing to pay for them. They look like extended properties as you said - nice big family houses. You may not think they are worth what they are asking but perhaps somebody else will.

They're are worth what someone is able to pay. Usually what they are able to borrow.

[nornironsi]

They're are worth what someone is able to pay. Usually what they are able to borrow.

I might be able to pay £400,000 but only think the house is worth £300,000 so I only pay £300,000 - hence it is worth what I or somebody else chose to pay for it. If you think everybody is foolish enough to pay right to their limit every time they buy a property then you underestimate people's common sense.

[2buyornot2buy]

I might be able to pay £400,000 but only think the house is worth £300,000 so I only pay £300,000 - hence it is worth what I or somebody else chose to pay for it. If you think everybody is foolish enough to pay right to their limit every time they buy a property then you underestimate people's common sense.

Or slept through 2006 and 2007.

Experience has shown us, housing and common sense don't make dinner good bedfellows.

In your hypothetical, you can still be outbid by joes 5% deposit, 5 times joint salary mates.

Edited August 6, 2016 by 2buyornot2buy

[ChewingGrass]

Thing is on every single one of the 4 houses shown you could drive a car from the front garden into the back garden and park up to 6 cars on the drive/front garden.

Compare that to any modern house from the 1980s onwards and you can see why they are/will be sought after as family homes.

They are not modern 4 bedroom rabbit hutches pretending to be family homes.

Where I live the vast majority of people with 4 bedroom homes don't have kids because they cant afford or want them and view 4 bedrooms as a status symbol along with their poxy AUDIs etc.

Catch 22.

[JoeDavola]

The houses have great extensions, so you've got a nice big kitchen.

But in some of them, the 4th bedroom is tiny, barely use-able.

I guess what they do have are massive gardens, and a bit of space around the house. Depends how often you actually use a back garden, and if you really need one that's so big? Maybe it's just for bragging rights.

Edited August 7, 2016 by JoeDavola

[2buyornot2buy]

The houses have great extensions, so you've got a nice big kitchen.

But in some of them, the 4th bedroom is tiny, barely use-able.

I guess what they do have are massive gardens, and a bit of space around the house. Depends how often you actually use a back garden, and if you really need one that's so big? Maybe it's just for bragging rights.

I have a big garden. I don't need it, I do use it pretty often.

[electrogear]

Those houses are at the same price as similar properties I'm looking at in West Hull, where it's supposed to be relatively 'cheap' to live. Personally, I think there's got to be a ceiling for 4 semi-detached houses even if they do have massive gardens and tons of parking space, and where I am 300K seems to be the cutoff. Any semis above that just don't sell. I'm hoping houses like that fall to around the 270K (asking price) mark within the next year, and get an offer around 50K accepted. As it stands sellers aren't budging more than 1 or 2% below their asking prices. A buyer/seller standoff...

[electrogear]

Oops that should have read "get an offer around 250K accepted". I'm not quite that optimistic lol.

[talksalot81]

There is a lot of contradictory activity at the moment. On one hand, there are a lot of properties coming on with high asking prices and supremely confident. On the flip side,a lot of properties are sitting for a long time and asking prices are actually being dropped.

[BelfastVI]

There is a lot of contradictory activity at the moment. On one hand, there are a lot of properties coming on with high asking prices and supremely confident. On the flip side,a lot of properties are sitting for a long time and asking prices are actually being dropped.

as I search property news I see there are 14,000 listings (if I am doing this right). I remember this figure at 30,000 in 2009/2010.

[talksalot81]

as I search property news I see there are 14,000 listings (if I am doing this right). I remember this figure at 30,000 in 2009/2010.

I had a chart of the numbers but it is several laptops ago and I cannot find it.

My feeling is that the stock is not that great but it is often on the high side.

[Bergy100]

https://www.ulsterpropertysales.co.uk/47-dunlambert-drive-north-belfast-belfast/418640

Absolutely staggering. This was on around 18-24 months ago and sold at a last listed price of 137500. Have things gone crazy in the last 12 months?

[2buyornot2buy]

https://www.ulsterpropertysales.co.uk/47-dunlambert-drive-north-belfast-belfast/418640

Absolutely staggering. This was on around 18-24 months ago and sold at a last listed price of 137500. Have things gone crazy in the last 12 months?

I actually think things have calmed down over the last 12 months.

[JoeDavola]

https://www.ulsterpropertysales.co.uk/47-dunlambert-drive-north-belfast-belfast/418640

Absolutely staggering. This was on around 18-24 months ago and sold at a last listed price of 137500. Have things gone crazy in the last 12 months?

They would appear to have done. Although there's a lot that's simply not selling.

Just under 3 years ago my parents sold a 4 bedroom semi in a good area of East Belfast, in great decorative order, with a double extension, and they were lucky to get one offer of 170K. The only other offer they got was £150K. There weren't any buyers about. In fact the only reason the person who ended up buying the house could afford it was because of a divorce. Now check out how much nice 4 bed semi's are on for.

I saw a flat near me sell quickly for £185K that you can literally google and right away see the advert from a couple of years ago when it was on for £115K.

Edited August 10, 2016 by JoeDavola

[yadayada]

https://www.ulsterpropertysales.co.uk/47-dunlambert-drive-north-belfast-belfast/418640

Absolutely staggering. This was on around 18-24 months ago and sold at a last listed price of 137500. Have things gone crazy in the last 12 months?

Let's see how long it takes to sell first. Anything more than a month or two and you can be sure they "can't sell their house" because it's not worth what they think it is and they haven't got round to dropping the price yet.

[calm-on-the-surface]

I'm currently trying to buy a house in Fermanagh but despite the N.I house price index showing falling sale prices the asking prices seem to be staying up (mostly anyway)

Are sellers and/or agents in denial or am I just a strange foreign bloke who doesn't understand how things work here??

[The_Equalizer]

From prolonged observation of NI's housing market I get the feeling that we are currently in a market that is operating at its margin. Supply is low, money cheap. I presume that there is still a significant number of houses can't be part of the market due to negative equity.

Purely from personal observation, there are quite a number of houses sticking at over £400K while anything below is being priced up towards this level. I'm not sure how estate agents derive their valuations, but they seem to be attempting to push things upwards. Is this seller lead, or them trying to push up their turnover? Of the few houses I have had my eye on none have moved. The one I was really interested in which I viewed twice in September 2015 is still for sale and only had a 2% reduction in price. As mentioned in this thread 3 bed houses seem to be moving north price-wise - perhaps because buyers can raise finance for these - and 4 beds in short supply.

I'm not sure how close an eye others on here keep, but wonder if anyone else has had similar thoughts or totally disagree?

[JoeDavola]

From prolonged observation of NI's housing market I get the feeling that we are currently in a market that is operating at its margin. Supply is low, money cheap. I presume that there is still a significant number of houses can't be part of the market due to negative equity.

Purely from personal observation, there are quite a number of houses sticking at over £400K while anything below is being priced up towards this level. I'm not sure how estate agents derive their valuations, but they seem to be attempting to push things upwards. Is this seller lead, or them trying to push up their turnover? Of the few houses I have had my eye on none have moved. The one I was really interested in which I viewed twice in September 2015 is still for sale and only had a 2% reduction in price. As mentioned in this thread 3 bed houses seem to be moving north price-wise - perhaps because buyers can raise finance for these - and 4 beds in short supply.

I'm not sure how close an eye others on here keep, but wonder if anyone else has had similar thoughts or totally disagree?

For me, £400K is so far above what I or anyone who I know (all educated people in 'professional' jobs) could afford, I wonder what demographic those prices are aimed at. Surely only the very highest earners could afford those kinds of prices, considering that most people paying that much for a house are probably going to want to raise a family in it (2+ kids), which isn't cheap.

You're right there's a shortage of 4 bedroom houses, and thus there seems to be a massive premium when a house has a 4th bedroom.

I'm getting a sense that they're trying in Belfast to price any semi that's any way impressive at over a quarter of a million. Which to me is ridiculous but there ya go. My parents sold a 4 bed semi with a double extension in a good part of East Belfast less than 3 years ago and only got 2 offers, one for £150K and one for £170K. And the only reason the person who bought it for £170K could afford it was through a windfall from a relative.

When I look at 4 bed semi's now, anything comparable seems to be £250K+. I'd like to know where all the buyers have come from with an extra £50-80K in their pockets that didn't exist 3 years ago.

I suspect that there are very few of them, and that the EA's are using the lack of supply to try and push up the prices.

Edited August 24, 2016 by JoeDavola

[The_Equalizer]

For me, £400K is so far above what I or anyone who I know (all educated people in 'professional' jobs) could afford, I wonder what demographic those prices are aimed at. Surely only the very highest earners could afford those kinds of prices, considering that most people paying that much for a house are probably going to want to raise a family in it (2+ kids), which isn't cheap.

You're right there's a shortage of 4 bedroom houses, and thus there seems to be a massive premium when a house has a 4th bedroom.

I'm getting a sense that they're trying in Belfast to price any semi that's any way impressive at over a quarter of a million. Which to me is ridiculous but there ya go. My parents sold a 4 bed semi with a double extension in a good part of East Belfast less than 3 years ago and only got 2 offers, one for £150K and one for £170K. And the only reason the person who bought it for £170K could afford it was through a windfall from a relative.

When I look at 4 bed semi's now, anything comparable seems to be £250K+. I'd like to know where all the buyers have come from with an extra £50-80K in their pockets that didn't exist 3 years ago.

I suspect that there are very few of them, and that the EA's are using the lack of supply to try and push up the prices.

Joe, thanks for the swift reply. Don't worry, I'm not some mystical £400K buyer either! I'm just amazed at what appears to be a solid bounce back from 2012 and am trying to work out who is buying and how. I presume that an extremely low interest rate is helping and the majority of buyers only ever looking at the monthly repayment in the near term. Perhaps I'm wrong?

New builds seem to be a slightly different story with those I've seen selling relatively well. BelfastVI can you confirm this is the case or otherwise?

What has become more annoying is any helpful indicators like PropertyBee and the stats on PropertyNews are now unavailable. I would love to know if the estate agents put pressure on PropertyNews for the latter.

[2buyornot2buy]

Honestly I'm not seeing lack of supply at the moment for 3 bed semis. Quite the opposite, but at 400k to around 550k there very little about.

I do agree with the view the EAs are trying to push everything up. I see plenty of around 250k semis but not a lot of the 400-600k detached.

Who buys theses house? Movers Joe, people with inheritances, dual working households and usually 2 professionals. It's not your average professional types, but your better than average professionals because the average paid ones are still living in the 3 bed semis at 250k.

TBH I get the impression we are of the same age. I'll probably move to a house in that price bracket. I'll probably move twice, maybe three times in total.

[2buyornot2buy]

Joe, thanks for the swift reply. Don't worry, I'm not some mystical £400K buyer either! I'm just amazed at what appears to be a solid bounce back from 2012 and am trying to work out who is buying and how. I presume that an extremely low interest rate is helping and the majority of buyers only ever looking at the monthly repayment in the near term. Perhaps I'm wrong?

New builds seem to be a slightly different story with those I've seen selling relatively well. BelfastVI can you confirm this is the case or otherwise?

What has become more annoying is any helpful indicators like PropertyBee and the stats on PropertyNews are now unavailable. I would love to know if the estate agents put pressure on PropertyNews for the latter.

It's a bit like PCP with cars Most only see the initial rate, and can't imagine normal 6+% interest rates.

Edited August 24, 2016 by 2buyornot2buy