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Poll: Has The Crash Started?

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Reading the anecdotes on this site I am starting to believe that the crash has started. Who here agrees with me and why?

Edited by Young Goat

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It's started. I see reductions and low transaction volumes. When the recession begins people will have something to blame falling house prices on and will start to believe, most will never realise that it collapsed under it's own weight in the summer of 2004.

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Guest Riser

The market has no doubt hit its peak in most areas, although asking prices may well rise slightly in some areas during the Spring demand will soon drop away due to affordability and by the late Autumn you would probably not even bother asking the question. B)

Signal_NationalQ405.gif Nationwide Q4 2005 Crash still on track

NorthQ405.gif Q4 2005 North of England still on track

SouthWestQ405.gif Q4 2005 South Wes ma still have a small bounce before hitting the skids this Autumn

post-1619-1137692183.gif

post-1619-1137692318.gif

post-1619-1137692380.gif

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The crash starts when the borrowing stops.

And the borrowing stops when the crash starts.

So which did come first, the chicken of the egg? :unsure:

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People will only BELIEVE it is happening when they have direct evidence that it is. I mean selling a property of their own.

I have recently sold a property, and as oppose to chase the market down, I gave a good reduction and then accepted an offer. I feel lucky, I think I got out just in time (even a bit late).

Anyhow...most people we know (especially people who have BTL's) think we undersold and are stupid! Bear in mind we had the property on the market for 8 months. People still think, "oh that only happened to them because their bathroom isnt as nice as mine, or their garden is a bit smaller."

The crash is definitely happening and has been in the south since mid 2004, but people will not believe it until they get first hand knowledge. DENIAL IS RIFE.

Edited by frugalstar

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The crash HAS started in the south west as property is sticking like glue, and I could easily buy more this year than I could last year for the same money.

And new builds are very easy to get discounts (Without being pressed B*****ts offered over £30K discount from asking + package) on from the developers, wheras last year when I asked they almost laughed and told that everyone was paying asking price (which seems vaguely true from LR figures

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And the borrowing stops when the crash starts.

So which did come first, the chicken of the egg? :unsure:

It's a commutative statement :D .

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The crash HAS started in the south west as property is sticking like glue, and I could easily buy more this year than I could last year for the same money.

And new builds are very easy to get discounts (Without being pressed B*****ts offered over £30K discount from asking + package) on from the developers, wheras last year when I asked they almost laughed and told that everyone was paying asking price (which seems vaguely true from LR figures

Spot on..

as a friend said to me yesterday..

"When I cam here there were too many buyers for too few properties..

Now it is the other way round."

or words to that effect..

You have to agree..

When people talk about the market they say it is healthy..

but those that have to sell will discount.. and that is new builds.

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Its deffinetly well under way. Just check out the number of properties sold this November- or any other month in 04 year, compaired to the completions in 05

Detatched and semis are well done in all the areas I have checked out. Eventually the muppets buying the overpriced rubbish at the bottom will get the message.

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Guest Winners and Losers

Whether or not it has started, it is certainly closer than it ever has been during this recent boom. BUST!

Reading the anecdotes on this site I am starting to believe that the crash has started. Who here agrees with me and why?

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It's started.

As a FTB I've been looking around, and really doing my research.

All the properties have been "knocked down", usually about 5%, and thats just the offer price.

There are so many BTL properties vs renters, that landlords are being forced to sell up. (no tenants, no morgage payments), however the landlords, are trying to sell AND rent the property at the same time.

So whatever comes first they leap on.

as a FTB I see no reason to buy, when the property is falling in price. If others do the same, 5%, will become 10%, 20%,30%

The bottom line, is that average house prices above 3.5 x average earnings, is not sustainable.

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Its deffinetly well under way. Just check out the number of properties sold this November- or any other month in 04 year, compaired to the completions in 05

Good idea! The most reliable monthly figures for property transaction numbers are here: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_pro...nthly_dec05.pdf

Let's see: November 04 was 134,000, November 05 was up to 146,000. Doesn't look much like a crash, does it? Let's try October. 2004 was 138,000 while 2005 was up to 146,000. September? 2004 was 158,000, up to 170,000 in 2005. The first seven months of 2004 showed big drops compared with the year before, but it recovered strongly from September onwards. And it's not just that the slowdown had started by the second half of 2004, so that the previous year's figure was already depressed -- the figures for September, October and November 2005 are virtually all ahead of the same months in 2003 and 2002 as well.

Edited by zorn

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I don't think it has. We're close but no cigar yet. Glad I don't own property right now, but I think there may be an unexpected twist before the action starts. Even a spike in prices or some such stupid thing.

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Good idea! The most reliable monthly figures for property transaction numbers are here: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_pro...nthly_dec05.pdf

Let's see: November 04 was 134,000, November 05 was up to 146,000. Doesn't look much like a crash, does it? Let's try October. 2004 was 138,000 while 2005 was up to 146,000. September? 2004 was 158,000, up to 170,000 in 2005. The first seven months of 2004 showed big drops compared with the year before, but it recovered strongly from September onwards. And it's not just that the slowdown had started by the second half of 2004, so that the previous year's figure was already depressed -- the figures for September, October and November 2005 are virtually all ahead of the same months in 2003 and 2002 as well.

You're all doom and gloom aren't you? :rolleyes:

It is interesting how the anecdotals seem so different to the figures. Everyone I know that is trying to sell is having a nightmare, yet the figures say prices are still rising. Strange.

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Signal_NationalQ405.gif Nationwide Q4 2005 Crash still on track

I have a (probably stupid) question about this graph. If the red line represents change in average in house prices and the blue line represents average house prices (relative to the long term average), then that would make me think that whenever the red is positive, regardless of its direction, the blue would be going up. But this isn't always the case. I'm missing something, what is it?

Edited by Minimind

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Good idea! The most reliable monthly figures for property transaction numbers are here: http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/survey_of_pro...nthly_dec05.pdf

Let's see: November 04 was 134,000, November 05 was up to 146,000. Doesn't look much like a crash, does it? Let's try October. 2004 was 138,000 while 2005 was up to 146,000. September? 2004 was 158,000, up to 170,000 in 2005. The first seven months of 2004 showed big drops compared with the year before, but it recovered strongly from September onwards. And it's not just that the slowdown had started by the second half of 2004, so that the previous year's figure was already depressed -- the figures for September, October and November 2005 are virtually all ahead of the same months in 2003 and 2002 as well.

I don’t know where this data come from because it just doesn’t represent the last few years activity in the housing market at all. According to these figures there were roughly the same number of transactions in 2005 as there were in h2 2003 and h1 2004 when interest rates were 3.5% and the market boomed after the end of the Iraq war - that is patently absurd. If, along with numerous developers, the UK’s biggest publically quoted estate agency with a sample of 1200 branches across the Country says it was the quietest year since 1974 who the hell is selling all the houses if, as these figures suggest, 2005 was actually a boom year for the market?

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The housing crash started when the transaction volumes dropped dramatically. This was led by a drop in mortgage approvals, and happened around mid 2004.

This change basically indicated that buyers were no longer able or willing to pay seller's prices.

That's how housing crashes start, not by a sudden fall in price, but by a sudden drop in volumes.

The next stage is consumers stop spending (note the current high street slump), and unemployment shoots up as those job created by the housing and retail boom fall away.

When we start to see the volumes pick up again on falling prices (as per Australia now) we will know that it's truly game over for housing.

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Reading the anecdotes on this site I am starting to believe that the crash has started. Who here agrees with me and why?

Yes, because no news is good news.

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Guest wrongmove

I don’t know where this data come from...

It's from Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs - the people who charge the Stamp Duty, so they should know.....

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Guest Bart of Darkness

We're not going to wake up one morning and find that the housing market crashed while we were asleep.

A lot has to go on beforehand, much of which seems to take place at the speed of continental drift.

This preparatory groundwork is going on right now.

So yes, the crash has started.

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