I Told You So Report post Posted January 19, 2006 With the dropping of property from SIPPs, 7% FTB's, Countrywide reporting lowest house sales for 30years, oversupply of newbuild flats to name but a few. Somethings got to give but what will be the first? Here's my top 4 1. Large developer goes bust - flooding market with cheap property 2. Large BTL club goes bust - flooding market with cheap property 3. Large Estate agency goes bust - sends panic through the market 4. Interest rates rise causes panic BTL selling - prices plummet Any other suggestions welcome Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Goat Report post Posted January 19, 2006 First signs of crash cause BTLers to panic. Already happening imo Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Realistbear Report post Posted January 19, 2006 I think all 4 will occur about the same time followed by Gordon's non-promotion to PM for having engineered the first recession of the 21st Century. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
2005 Report post Posted January 19, 2006 With the dropping of property from SIPPs, 7% FTB's, Countrywide reporting lowest house sales for 30years, oversupply of newbuild flats to name but a few. Somethings got to give but what will be the first? Here's my top 4 1. Large developer goes bust - flooding market with cheap property 2. Large BTL club goes bust - flooding market with cheap property 3. Large Estate agency goes bust - sends panic through the market 4. Interest rates rise causes panic BTL selling - prices plummet Any other suggestions welcome Any of these would be the symptoms of a house price crash (correction) not the cause. If a correction does happen then by the time we read those headlines things will already be going down the pan. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DonnieDarker Report post Posted January 19, 2006 The flight from BTL is in fruition I believe. Anecdotal: I live in a mansion divided into 7 flats. In the past fortnight 2 of them have gone on the market for sale....remnids me I must check how much for! All of the flats are rented and were previoulsly lived in by the owners who have all done a BTL. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
redwing Report post Posted January 19, 2006 My pet theory aka Redwing's First Law: Prices will fall when people believe they will fall. Why? FTBs and people going up-market will postpone purchase waiting for better deals and saving in the meantime (less demand). At the same time people wanting to move down-market or withdraw (like speculators) will be trying to sell (more supply). My problem is figuring out what will change people's belief. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OzzMosiz Report post Posted January 19, 2006 With the dropping of property from SIPPs, 7% FTB's, Countrywide reporting lowest house sales for 30years, oversupply of newbuild flats to name but a few. Somethings got to give but what will be the first? That can't be right! Surely the BBC would have reported it if it was true!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dogbox Report post Posted January 19, 2006 Ive got to agree, it feels very bearish right now. I would'nt be too surprised to see some real falls now. Too many over - regulated jobs are being sent abroad. Too much worry in sinking into the British phsyche (sp - no chance). Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mikthe20 Report post Posted January 19, 2006 I think all 4 will occur about the same time followed by Gordon's non-promotion to PM for having engineered the first recession of the 21st Century. I think the reverse and that Gordon will do a "John Major" and get out and become party leader/PM before the proverbial hits the fan. Major was chancellor when the UK joined the ERM in 1990 but was well out of the way and not blamed when it all went tets up and we were forced to leave it in 1992. I can see Gordon doing the same - becomes PM in 2007 and it all goes to pot after that, but the poor unfortunate who follows Gordon as chancellor will get the blame. 2 years of recession follow and things are just beginning to pick up a little come the election in 2009/10, giving Gordon a slim and unexpected victory. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CrashIsUnderWay Report post Posted January 19, 2006 if that really WAS a 'double top' on the graphs, we are 1 (2 at most) quarters away from teh official start of the recession. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Flash Report post Posted January 19, 2006 I was thinking about option 3 - "Large EA goes bust", so I thought I would check out the share price of Countrywide. WTF???!!!!??? I nearly dropped my black-pudding sandwich. The shares have nigh on doubled since last May. 260p to 471.5p today!!!! Given that the stockmarket always discounts good/bad news, I would say that some investors/insiders are pretty sure that the outlook is good. I'm not sure what to make of it. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Take me to the cleaners Report post Posted January 19, 2006 I'm not sure what to make of it. Madness? Or would insanity be more pc? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ajh Report post Posted January 20, 2006 Any other suggestions welcome 5. Unemployment rises rapidly. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Badger Report post Posted January 20, 2006 I was thinking about option 3 - "Large EA goes bust", so I thought I would check out the share price of Countrywide. WTF???!!!!??? I nearly dropped my black-pudding sandwich. The shares have nigh on doubled since last May. 260p to 471.5p today!!!! Given that the stockmarket always discounts good/bad news, I would say that some investors/insiders are pretty sure that the outlook is good. I'm not sure what to make of it. They may be predicting housing becoming more affordable, which equals more movement/sales possibly? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Magpie Report post Posted January 20, 2006 I was thinking about option 3 - "Large EA goes bust", so I thought I would check out the share price of Countrywide. WTF???!!!!??? I nearly dropped my black-pudding sandwich. The shares have nigh on doubled since last May. 260p to 471.5p today!!!! Isn't that much more to do with proposed flotation of Rightmove (of which Countrywide own 30%) than to do with the current state of the market? There may be other factors to do with them as a business overall (do they own subsidiaries abroad etc) which also affect the share price independently of the current state of the UK market. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SarahBell Report post Posted January 20, 2006 Unemployment will start to hurt is people can't make quick money selling houses after they've painted them magnolia. An oil/gas shock might happen. We got any cold weather on the way? My fav satelite site isn't working http://satellite.ehabich.info/ Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surrey cash buyer Report post Posted January 20, 2006 Unemployment will start to hurt is people can't make quick money selling houses after they've painted them magnolia. An oil/gas shock might happen. We got any cold weather on the way? My fav satelite site isn't working http://satellite.ehabich.info/ No cold weather here yet but it could come our way from Russia. Russians face freezing chaos "Russia is in the grip of a bitterly cold winter which is having severe consequences for both its residents and industry. Now the effects are extending to other parts of Europe." "Some of the oil wells in Siberia have frozen, and Russia is producing 200,000 barrels of oil a day less than it was last month " "And Gazprom, the state gas company, has had to cut back its exports to western Europe to try to cover demand domestically. That has meant there has been a surge in gas prices in Europe. " Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BuyingBear Report post Posted January 20, 2006 (edited) Any other suggestions welcome Some major home builders are reporting (to the markets) next week! Edited January 20, 2006 by BuyingBear Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OnlyMe Report post Posted January 20, 2006 CRB Index breaking through to new highs. Can hardly get a quote up - the site seems to be log-jammed. Investors I think are smelling inflation everywhere, create enough FIAT money and this is the safe haven of last resort. If this carries on it is game over - costs will be rising everywhere. http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR&v=dmax Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
