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Bears Contradicting Themselves ?

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Im a waiting FTB, some savings just waiting to get on, but reading through the posts I have a question.

Firstly it seems theres a huge amount of bears on here certain that prices are going to drop. Dead cert that anyone with a house will 'pay' the conciquences if they keep their house with the impending crash on the horizon (excluding those who bought in the 90's).

What ive also noticed is the same bears are writing articles about how unstable the economy is and even going as far as to say the fiat money system we use could also be on its last legs (which im not debating).

If these bears think this, wouldnt it be safe to say that IF there is a huge 'economic meltdown', the last thing you want to be holding is cash, and 1 of the things you want to be holding is land & property ?

If this is the case, then really the bulls might have the right idea ?

Or is my logic wrong ?

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Im a waiting FTB, some savings just waiting to get on, but reading through the posts I have a question.

Firstly it seems theres a huge amount of bears on here certain that prices are going to drop. Dead cert that anyone with a house will 'pay' the conciquences if they keep their house with the impending crash on the horizon (excluding those who bought in the 90's).

What ive also noticed is the same bears are writing articles about how unstable the economy is and even going as far as to say the fiat money system we use could also be on its last legs (which im not debating).

If these bears think this, wouldnt it be safe to say that IF there is a huge 'economic meltdown', the last thing you want to be holding is cash, and 1 of the things you want to be holding is land & property ?

If this is the case, then really the bulls might have the right idea ?

Or is my logic wrong ?

I think some people here like the idea of holding a certain yellow, soft metal. If there's a crisis, people will be buying gold. There'd be lots of property on the markets and it'd be difficult to get credit so prices of it would drop. Currencies may or may not become devalued.

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If these bears think this, wouldnt it be safe to say that IF there is a huge 'economic meltdown', the last thing you want to be holding is cash, and 1 of the things you want to be holding is land & property ?

Why would you want to be holding land and property in a deep recession? And, in particular, why would you want to be holding huge debts against land and property in a deep recession?

If we do get a deep recession in the UK, then property prices are going way, way, way down from here, maybe even more than I expect.

Oh, and note, BTW, that many of us have already moved much of our money out of the UK, where a collapse of the British economy won't affect it. It's rather harder to do that with a house.

Edited by MarkG

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If these bears think this, wouldnt it be safe to say that IF there is a huge 'economic meltdown', the last thing you want to be holding is cash

I believe about a year ago Warren Buffet was asked what did he consider to be a good investment.

After a quick thought he replied I can think of three.

1. Cash

2. Cash

3. Cash

So we now know where his $42 billion wealth is invested. :D

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I don't think even the most extreme Goldbull believes that fiat money will come to an end.

Not before house prices crash, anyway.

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Guest Bart of Darkness
Ok fair enough, but i was talking more along the lines of the fiat currency coming to an end, not just a recession.

If this were to happen, surely gold would be better? If money becomes worth less (or utterly worthless) and your property is valued at, say 250,000 pounds, then you can sell it for what exactly? 250,000 worthless pounds?

In such a situation, you'd rather be paid in gold, or another currency, such as Swiss Francs.

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Im a waiting FTB, some savings just waiting to get on, but reading through the posts I have a question.

Firstly it seems theres a huge amount of bears on here certain that prices are going to drop. Dead cert that anyone with a house will 'pay' the conciquences if they keep their house with the impending crash on the horizon (excluding those who bought in the 90's).

What ive also noticed is the same bears are writing articles about how unstable the economy is and even going as far as to say the fiat money system we use could also be on its last legs (which im not debating).

If these bears think this, wouldnt it be safe to say that IF there is a huge 'economic meltdown', the last thing you want to be holding is cash, and 1 of the things you want to be holding is land & property ?

If this is the case, then really the bulls might have the right idea ?

Or is my logic wrong ?

Can't recall who keeps posting it but "Whats the point of owning a property when you have not got a job to pay for it". Maybe we are the only ones seeing it.

Heard today that our biggest customer UNILEVER is laying-off staff. Don't look to good from where I'm standing :(

TB

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I believe about a year ago Warren Buffet was asked what did he consider to be a good investment.

After a quick thought he replied I can think of three.

1. Cash

2. Cash

3. Cash

So we now know where his $42 billion wealth is invested. :D

A few months before the October '87 stock market crash, Jimmy Goldsmith liquidated his shares and declared "cash is king".

My holdings right now would be:

1. Cash

2. Gold

3. Diamonds (if things get really bad and you have to leave in a hurry)

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If this were to happen, surely gold would be better? If money becomes worth less (or utterly worthless) and your property is valued at, say 250,000 pounds, then you can sell it for what exactly? 250,000 worthless pounds?

If you can buy a property with 250,000 pounds, then pounds are not worthless.

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Guest
If you can buy a property with 250,000 pounds, then pounds are not worthless.

I guess it depends how that pans out relative to everything else you'll be buying.

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The price of land soared in France during the time of troubles after the 1789 revolution. It was seen as a safe port for money at a time when cash was being massively eroded by hyperinflation.

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the last thing you want to be holding is cash, and 1 of the things you want to be holding is land & property ?

For me the point is people are not holding land and property they are holding debt against land and property. Sure fly away inflation would help with that, not having a job however wouldn't.

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If this were to happen, surely gold would be better? If money becomes worth less (or utterly worthless) and your property is valued at, say 250,000 pounds, then you can sell it for what exactly? 250,000 worthless pounds?

In such a situation, you'd rather be paid in gold, or another currency, such as Swiss Francs.

It would be best to buy something that is not over valued to start with

So gold and property are out!

I was thinking some time ago on a similar line of what would be worth something if chicken flu killed a quarter of the population – the only thing I could think of was shares in a funeral company

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Looking at the gold price it has just crept over its 35 year real average. I intend to swap out into shares though, in a decade or so, so not important for me. But you are right 'look to the past' - and have been for about the last ten minutes.

Ok I’m surprised – I just thought it was at an all time high and therefore overpriced

I suppose it’s better to be just about right than wrong

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Im a waiting FTB, some savings just waiting to get on, but reading through the posts I have a question.

Firstly it seems theres a huge amount of bears on here certain that prices are going to drop. Dead cert that anyone with a house will 'pay' the conciquences if they keep their house with the impending crash on the horizon (excluding those who bought in the 90's).

What ive also noticed is the same bears are writing articles about how unstable the economy is and even going as far as to say the fiat money system we use could also be on its last legs (which im not debating).

If these bears think this, wouldnt it be safe to say that IF there is a huge 'economic meltdown', the last thing you want to be holding is cash, and 1 of the things you want to be holding is land & property ?

If this is the case, then really the bulls might have the right idea ?

Or is my logic wrong ?

the MPC sole repsonsibility is to prevent inflation.

the reason why i have not bought is that inflation will not be allowed to shrink debts against salary as it did in the seventiesit is tha promise that has kept me out of the market.

For me the point is people are not holding land and property they are holding debt against land and property. Sure fly away inflation would help with that, not having a job however wouldn't.

There wil lbe as little inflation as possible..

remember the last crash..??

Last crash meant prices dropped..

That was what happened last time.

Prices will drop.. to that end what you buy now should be cheaper soon..

unless the government is lying and they never do that...

Do they?

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  • 339 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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