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Property War

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Property has become a fight between vested interests and people without property. First time buyers have all but dissapeared. BTLs are percieved as collabortors because they are helping vested interests by purchasing at silly prices.

As in any war, propoganda is the key weapon and in this respect the vested interests have a huge advantage. In 2005, there was a determined house buyers strike which would normal be the precursor of a crash. Vested interests however mounted a fierce propoganda campaign to break the strike. This was supported by building societies, estate agents, the RICS, the BBC, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, Channel 4, newspapers etc. They used clever physchology and very simple language to target the less well educated (apparantly a disproportionate number of BTLs have below average education). In the end the vested interests won and kept the enemy at bay for another year.

In 2006 there will be another buyers strike (because houses are still wildly overpriced). This time however the fight will be more equal because propoganda only works if people believe it. People will no longer swallow statements like 'the fundamentals are sound' if they know that their disposable income is shrinking and can see unemployment rising relentlessly.

Many property owners are quietly looking for an escape route. Evidence of this can be seen by the number of properties being advertised as 'chain free'. The vested interests might just win one last battle in 2006 but I think it is more likely that the property market will be in total dissaray by the end of the year.

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Property has become a fight between vested interests and people without property. First time buyers have all but dissapeared. BTLs are percieved as collabortors because they are helping vested interests by purchasing at silly prices.

As in any war, propoganda is the key weapon and in this respect the vested interests have a huge advantage. In 2005, there was a determined house buyers strike which would normal be the precursor of a crash. Vested interests however mounted a fierce propoganda campaign to break the strike. This was supported by building societies, estate agents, the RICS, the BBC, Office of the Deputy Prime Minister, Channel 4, newspapers etc. They used clever physchology and very simple language to target the less well educated (apparantly a disproportionate number of BTLs have below average education). In the end the vested interests won and kept the enemy at bay for another year.

In 2006 there will be another buyers strike (because houses are still wildly overpriced). This time however the fight will be more equal because propoganda only works if people believe it. People will no longer swallow statements like 'the fundamentals are sound' if they know that their disposable income is shrinking and can see unemployment rising relentlessly.

Many property owners are quietly looking for an escape route. Evidence of this can be seen by the number of properties being advertised as 'chain free'. The vested interests might just win one last battle in 2006 but I think it is more likely that the property market will be in total dissaray by the end of the year.

In the immortal words of Shakespeare:

Indeed, the tide hath turned....

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Whilst we a palying the property war the Chinese and others are playing the economic war - they are winning, hands down and we are shooting ourselves in the foot at every turn.

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Whilst we a palying the property war the Chinese and others are playing the economic war - they are winning, hands down and we are shooting ourselves in the foot at every turn.

With the possibility that one day they will turn up en masse, with shedloads of cash, to purchase a nice little property for holidays or investment.

"We've several beautiful cottages in Wales Mr. and Mrs. Cheung".

The World Economic Cycle turns inexorably.

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While the Chinese "economic miracle" takes over world production Gordon Brown's "economic miracle" destroys FTBs. Maggie T's vision was for universal home ownership not housing bubbles based on cheap money and multiple ownership that freezes out the young and the poor.

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The vested interests might just win one last battle in 2006 but I think it is more likely that the property market will be in total dissaray by the end of the year.

The crash is going to be deferred for another 12 months??? Oh no....

I agree that there is a propaganda war but you forget that there are vested interests on the pro-crash side too i.e. People who sold to rent.

Indeed, STRs can be some of the most vociferous vested interests out there; Property-related companies will spin but they are 'just doing their job'. For a STR, unless there is a crash they stand to lose out financially in a big way, as well as end up looking very stupid on a personal level, so their desire to spin is arguably a lot more intensified, IMHO.

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With the possibility that one day they will turn up en masse, with shedloads of cash, to purchase a nice little property for holidays or investment.

"We've several beautiful cottages in Wales Mr. and Mrs. Cheung".

The World Economic Cycle turns inexorably.

Why would Mr. & Mrs. Cheung buy in Wales unless it was much cheaper than Leaping Tiger Gorge?

Because Wales is so desirable? To who? The Welsh?

There aren’t enough resources in the world for the Chinese to become as rich as the US, remember there are 5 times as many people in China.

Can Earth support 6 United States? Can it F**K, it struggles with one.

The idea china’s growth can continue limitlessly is nonsense, the worry is we will soon have to compete with them for more oil and luxury goods. Prepare for hyper inflation it’s not far away. Prepare for zero wage inflation in the West, as all new jobs go to Asia.

Nothing but nothing can prop up the house market as it stands. She will go down and will take most things with her (I’m going to start calling the housing market ‘her’ from now on, think of the Titanic). Good advice would be to try and find something to hang onto, be it a safe job, or some unaffected investment. But who the hell wants to be paying back a £200,000 mortgage when your wages do not change and your job is at risk? Sleepless nights? Suicides? Buy today and your risking having to service a very large debt on a depreciating asset during times of high inflation, sticky wages and mass lay offs.

It’s a very big risk. What exactly do you hope to gain?

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The crash is going to be deferred for another 12 months??? Oh no....

I agree that there is a propaganda war but you forget that there are vested interests on the pro-crash side too i.e. People who sold to rent.

Agreed, but the estate agents/lending bodies are the ones who control the meda.

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Guest

The crash is going to be deferred for another 12 months??? Oh no....

We have a lot of these 'short term fixed' mortgages which will start expiring over the next couple of years. That'll become interesting.

Bear that I am, I certainly believe this is a factor that has made "this time different".

:lol:

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Property has become a fight between vested interests and people without property. First time buyers have all but dissapeared. BTLs are percieved as collabortors because they are helping vested interests by purchasing at silly prices.

To be fair, everyone in this argument has a vested interest, even you

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To be fair, everyone in this argument has a vested interest, even you

Quite right but my vested interests are nice and wholesome.

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Quite right but my vested interests are nice and wholesome.

You're not like those other vested interests then, the ones' that tell you what you want to hear when times are good and then quickly dumps you for another asset class that comes into favour, then forgetting who or what they were previously pumping, ceaselessly milking for all it was worth until it was completely spent...

You're not like that are you?

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Why would Mr. & Mrs. Cheung buy in Wales unless it was much cheaper than Leaping Tiger Gorge?

Because Wales is so desirable? To who? The Welsh?

There aren’t enough resources in the world for the Chinese to become as rich as the US, remember there are 5 times as many people in China.

Can Earth support 6 United States? Can it F**K, it struggles with one.

The idea china’s growth can continue limitlessly is nonsense, the worry is we will soon have to compete with them for more oil and luxury goods. Prepare for hyper inflation it’s not far away. Prepare for zero wage inflation in the West, as all new jobs go to Asia.

Nothing but nothing can prop up the house market as it stands. She will go down and will take most things with her (I’m going to start calling the housing market ‘her’ from now on, think of the Titanic). Good advice would be to try and find something to hang onto, be it a safe job, or some unaffected investment. But who the hell wants to be paying back a £200,000 mortgage when your wages do not change and your job is at risk? Sleepless nights? Suicides? Buy today and your risking having to service a very large debt on a depreciating asset during times of high inflation, sticky wages and mass lay offs.

It’s a very big risk. What exactly do you hope to gain?

I can imagine a marketing campaign that would bring the Chinese. The British head off in all directions buying property.

Resource depletion may worry you and some thinkers but doesn't seem to affect the majority. Look around you, cheap consumer goods, cheap airtravel to your little pad somewhere, etc.

"Make poverty history" espoused by many including Politicians. That means more consumption.

For the moment, although how long that moment will last is contentious, the Human Species seems quite content to pursue the current course.

I too think the housing market defies all logic and that the future is hard to see considering all the factors now relevant.

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Why would Mr. & Mrs. Cheung buy in Wales unless it was much cheaper than Leaping Tiger Gorge?

Because Wales is so desirable? To who? The Welsh?

There aren’t enough resources in the world for the Chinese to become as rich as the US, remember there are 5 times as many people in China.

Can Earth support 6 United States? Can it F**K, it struggles with one.

The idea china’s growth can continue limitlessly is nonsense, the worry is we will soon have to compete with them for more oil and luxury goods. Prepare for hyper inflation it’s not far away. Prepare for zero wage inflation in the West, as all new jobs go to Asia.

Nothing but nothing can prop up the house market as it stands. She will go down and will take most things with her (I’m going to start calling the housing market ‘her’ from now on, think of the Titanic). Good advice would be to try and find something to hang onto, be it a safe job, or some unaffected investment. But who the hell wants to be paying back a £200,000 mortgage when your wages do not change and your job is at risk? Sleepless nights? Suicides? Buy today and your risking having to service a very large debt on a depreciating asset during times of high inflation, sticky wages and mass lay offs.

It’s a very big risk. What exactly do you hope to gain?

yes, people who're optimistic about the China effect neglect the fact that it has a population of 1200 million,about a fifth of the world's population......and India about 1000 million.

There simply isn't enough demand in the whole world to allow Chinese production to continue growing as it has in recent years...

China and India will buy more advanced goods and services such as Jumbo jets and Rolex watches from us as their incomes increase........but their income will never get anywhere near that in the West now....

When South Korea went from nothing to an industrial power in the 70s and 80s its population was only 30 or 40 million and as the place developed wages shot up....as you would expect...reducing that country's wage cost advantage over ours..................

However in China literally tens of millions of people are coming in from the countryside every year to swell the urban workforce and even after 15 years of phenomenal economic growth factory workers are still only getting £60 a month!....the same as a few years ago....................

Edited by Michael

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Whilst we a palying the property war the Chinese and others are playing the economic war - they are winning, hands down and we are shooting ourselves in the foot at every turn.

Symtomatic of the decadent, delusional society that the UK has become.

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You're not like those other vested interests then, the ones' that tell you what you want to hear when times are good and then quickly dumps you for another asset class that comes into favour, then forgetting who or what they were previously pumping, ceaselessly milking for all it was worth until it was completely spent...

You're not like that are you?

Exactly!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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