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shedders

Gold Rallies

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Gold is up the 312 up from 307 yesterday.

I would like the opinions of senior posters here Dr Bubb especially as to if there will much of a pullback or will we see Gold keep rising?

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I have noticed that a new website bullionvault allows people to buy gold online without the security headache as they store it in their vaults. A few days ago there was a two page article in a London business newspaper(City AM) on bullionvault. Sites like this makes owning gold a lot easier and should push up demand. I believe a bubble may be rising

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Guest Riser

Ah, how my heart sings when the Kitco graph goes near

vertical, as it seems to do more and more often these days,

and indeed is as I write.

Pent

Hold onto your hats it looks like we are going parabolic at the US open :D

Edit; It was mentioned on ADVFN that this months futures options expire today, does that meen that some of the gold shorts will lose big time today, or will they just roll over and wait for a pull back. Those commercial who shorted gold at $470 must be well out of pocket by now, is this the Blue Moon that Dr Bubb told us about ? Have the central banks lost control of gold or are they just playing games with us.

Edited by Riser

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I wonder if I can ask your thoughts. I've bought some gold and silver bullion - it's done well. CFDs less well, due to over trading. I want to buy some more of both. What price do you think I should be looking to get in at? What are the predictions as to the correction? When's it coming? How big will it be?

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I wonder if I can ask your thoughts. I've bought some gold and silver bullion - it's done well. CFDs less well, due to over trading. I want to buy some more of both. What price do you think I should be looking to get in at? What are the predictions as to the correction? When's it coming? How big will it be?

Frizzers,

With the Dow down 200 on Friday and an already jittery Nikkei, bets are off about Gold for me. I can see the stock markets losing 10% in a week next week if there is a widespread nervousness (and am sure there is some bonus-induced froth left over from a Santa Claus rally that needs to come off anyway). I'm not so sure where this leaves Gold though. If people take Merv's warning on asset bubbles too literally then everything could come down, although I'm thinking that Oil and Gold will probably buck the tide.

Urban Hymn et al are rather convincing me that we just need to keep dripping money into the Gold market as we can for now and ignore little ups and downs. Probably sensible: in every other investment i've lacked the courage of my convictions and choosing the 'best' time has been the enemy of settling for a very good time to invest.

CS

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Frizzers,

With the Dow down 200 on Friday and an already jittery Nikkei, bets are off about Gold for me. I can see the stock markets losing 10% in a week next week if there is a widespread nervousness (and am sure there is some bonus-induced froth left over from a Santa Claus rally that needs to come off anyway). I'm not so sure where this leaves Gold though. If people take Merv's warning on asset bubbles too literally then everything could come down, although I'm thinking that Oil and Gold will probably buck the tide.

Urban Hymn et al are rather convincing me that we just need to keep dripping money into the Gold market as we can for now and ignore little ups and downs. Probably sensible: in every other investment i've lacked the courage of my convictions and choosing the 'best' time has been the enemy of settling for a very good time to invest.

CS

I share your ambivalence as far as gold is concerned, CS. I'm sure long term the trend is up, because of the fundamentals, but it does seem in the near term some sort of correction is due. Even the experts on other threads are divided, some bullish in the near term, others bearish, with strong, convincing arguments for both. The volatilty this week has been ridiculous. But the Japan incident has a lot to do with that. Without it, I don't think we would have seen 540. Just fluctuation between about 550 and 565 or so.

But it is hard to stick to the courage of your convictions. At 540 I thought it still had further to drop. In fact, it shot back the other way.

Do you get in now and risk the correction? Do you wait and see, and risk missing the jump to 600? That's the call.

Hope all's good down in Kent.

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Urban Hymn et al are rather convincing me that we just need to keep dripping money into the Gold market as we can for now and ignore little ups and downs. Probably sensible: in every other investment i've lacked the courage of my convictions and choosing the 'best' time has been the enemy of settling for a very good time to invest.

CS

I lost quite a bit on tech shares a few years ago. 2005 was, however, a very good year for me and have wrested back most of my money.

I am not remotely smart enough to be a trader so all I can do is try to identify as best as I can whether the market for my chosen speculation is bullish or bearish. I can't see what more you need to know unless you are a trader and are wily enough to optimise your gains through getting in and out.

One thing that concerns me a bit is that commodities are not defensive. I am researching this at the moment but it would appear that commodities bomb with everything else when stockmarkets reverse. If someone smarter knows different I would be grateful for some input on this.

The exception to this is of course gold. There is so much junk money washing around that it is lifting the price of everything simultaneously. I cling to the hope that if stockmarkets return to the primary bear market that they were rudely diverted from then gold will rocket .

:rolleyes:

Edited by urban_hymn

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Frizzers,

With the Dow down 200 on Friday and an already jittery Nikkei, bets are off about Gold for me. I can see the stock markets losing 10% in a week next week if there is a widespread nervousness (and am sure there is some bonus-induced froth left over from a Santa Claus rally that needs to come off anyway). I'm not so sure where this leaves Gold though. If people take Merv's warning on asset bubbles too literally then everything could come down, although I'm thinking that Oil and Gold will probably buck the tide.

Urban Hymn et al are rather convincing me that we just need to keep dripping money into the Gold market as we can for now and ignore little ups and downs. Probably sensible: in every other investment i've lacked the courage of my convictions and choosing the 'best' time has been the enemy of settling for a very good time to invest.

CS

Remember the mainstream forecasters have had to constantly revise their estimates up over the last few years and the relentless rise of gold has taken the, by surprise. I think their current estimates look cautious and expect higher prices this year even if there is a dip soon. (By the way the reason I think they have been so wrong is that they have no or a wrong long term analysis of the world economy and believe that the current pumping of liquidity into the world economy can somehow work, when all it does is sustain the imbalances).

Everybody seems surprised by the way gold is bouncing back from profit taking at the moment. I certainly am and have been waiting for a dip since early January. From what I've read four things seem to have happened since December:

1) the funds have been moving in and and , taking profit when they can. 2) a rash of economic and politically unsettling events have kept prices up 3) small investors have started into gold in a much bigger way 4) the far east jewellry buyers think the price is too high.

What this adds up to I'm not sure. It may be an overbought market about to correct and will trend downwards for quite a while.

But it may be the start of phase 2 of a bull run - I'd certainly like to think so and I think there is some evidence for that. So you could say: 1) The funds have made money and they will want to come back when they see a chance. 2) Economically and politically destabilizing events will not die away - just the reverse because these events are not random but symptomatic of an underlying set of tensions in world economy and polity. Plus sensitivity to shocks seems to me to be getting greater. 3) If small inversors have woken up in greater numbers then some will stay and others will be looking for an opportunity to get in, especially if there is more instability. 4) Only the jewellry buyers have a problem but eventually they will have to accept the prices and will in any case come back in if the price dips.

Overall, then, my feeling is to sit tight and buy if it dips. Problem is, should we see a dip, at what level is it sensible price to get back is...$545...$...$535...$530?..? 2)

Everyone has been, understandably given the strength of the run and its volatility, shy of debating the price movements recently but I think it would help us all to have some debate on this.

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Overall, then, my feeling is to sit tight and buy if it dips. Problem is, should we see a dip, at what level is it sensible price to get back is...$545...$...$535...$530?..? 2)

Everyone has been, understandably given the strength of the run and its volatility, shy of debating the price movements recently but I think it would help us all to have some debate on this.

I agree. I'd love to hear people's views.

New Bear is right. There are essential contradictions at work and we have to judge which is the strongest force - the Asian jewellers, the funds, the declining dollar.

I think it might be panic and fear. As soon as there is a jitter, money piles into gold, the price rockets, as it rockets, more money piles in, then we see a load of profit taking and the price dips again. So there's so much volatility.

But if this is half as pronounced a bullmarket as people are saying, and you're in for the long term, does it really matter if you buy at 554 (now) or 540 or even 530? If it hits 700 within 18 months, as some are saying it will, you'll have done very well.

That's if you're buying bullion. If you're trading CFDs or spread betting and you buy at 554 and it dips to 530, you might find yourself sweating rather and it's that much harder to have the courage of your convictions and stick to your long-term strategy. That sort of sorts the men from the boys. The advantage and (disadvantage) of these is the exposure you get for the minimum outlay.

With all this volatility you don't want to put your stops too short, as the price might touch them and then rocket up. This has happened to me. I bought at 503 in December with a stop at 493 which it touched for two seconds before rocketing up and I missed a good run. Very frustrating.

I'd love to know if there's a way of trading that avoids this syndrome.

I'm quite meddlesome and this has worked against me. Often I think the best method is to buy, then lock yourself in a cupboard for two weeks or a month where you can't get online and mess about with anything. This would force you to stick with your long-term strategy.

As for the price, I'm tempted to trickle a little bit in now. 535 and I'd buy a fair bit - even if it goes down from there, I'm sure it won't go that far. I really can't see 480 again as some forecasters have suggested. There are too many people wanting to get in.

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There are some outrageous claims that gold could reach $2000-$5000 per ounce within 5 years. Anyone have any views on this?

Edited by gazwheat

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Gazwheat,

Some of the editorials at gold-eagle.com talk about a gold price reaching $2000. But they are so bullish, I wouldn't get too taken in by them, tempting though it is.

On the subject of the predicted short, sharp correction, it might be that we've already had it. The fall from 564 to 540 and back up again might have been it.

On another gold forum there's a trader who likens the situation to an elephant (global speculative money) trying to squeeze down a small pipe (gold shares & bullion). He reckons that momentum will carry us WAY higher than we expect. But an expert on the same thread thinks we'll see 500 before 600. In other words, we're peaking now. An argument that would be backed up by all this choppiness we've been having, which some see as signal of a market top.

For me, though, the price is going up. The issue is whether there's a nasty correction coming first.

It might also be that as the price rises, steadies and rises again, we see more and more people piling in and thus further rises.

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$2000 is quite a common high prediction amongst gold bugs based on the inflation adjusted high in 1980 (or around then) of $2,168. I'd put that as the absolute top and would probably bail out well before to be safe - remember it only lasted a few days. Will it get there? Who knows but half way would be quite delightful anyway.

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$2000 is quite a common high prediction amongst gold bugs based on the inflation adjusted high in 1980 (or around then) of $2,168. I'd put that as the absolute top and would probably bail out well before to be safe - remember it only lasted a few days. Will it get there? Who knows but half way would be quite delightful anyway.

Wouldn't it just.

This time, though, once it gets wherever it's going, because of the international political and economic situation (hpc, war, terror, inflation, oil, debt, dollar etc), and because there isn't, as far as I know, the same fixing there was last time round, I reckon it'll stay.

We're pretty much at the same position as we were at the end of last week. Who's going to buying on Monday?

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This newspaper piece sets out the dilemma quite well I think:

http://www.mineweb.net/sections/gold_silver/802364.htm

I doubt I'll be buying Monday even though I do want to some more. My overall feeling is that the market is going to test the resolve of the new small investors who have entered in the last period and a correction will come before the next rise. Just my guess though... The alternative is to go with the bull trend and do what someone here (Cygnao?) suggested and just buy on the same date each month. Might reduce the worry bit involved in climbing a wall.

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Personally I think that $2000-3000 is a realistic peak,and the time to sell up is when eople are tripping over themselves to buy it...media hype would certainly help it's case.I can't remember having anywhere near the amount of emphasis put on gold last time,maybe slightly with the tiger economies,but joe public wasn't doing investments like this on a large scale then....this time it IS different!

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Wouldn't it just.

This time, though, once it gets wherever it's going, because of the international political and economic situation (hpc, war, terror, inflation, oil, debt, dollar etc), and because there isn't, as far as I know, the same fixing there was last time round, I reckon it'll stay.

We're pretty much at the same position as we were at the end of last week. Who's going to buying on Monday?

Anyone buying monday could live to regret it

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Anyone buying monday could live to regret it

Gold is still apparently underpriced even at these new highs relative to equities, an ounce of gold is 11% of the FTSE all share compared the avg of 15.8 since 1985.

Maybe I should get some, is it worth buying £1k worth on goldmoney, as I have no idea what the trading costs etc are on buying and selling, are the spreads large and commission etc uneconomical at such amounts to invest?

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With all this volatility you don't want to put your stops too short, as the price might touch them and then rocket up. This has happened to me. I bought at 503 in December with a stop at 493 which it touched for two seconds before rocketing up and I missed a good run. Very frustrating.

I'd love to know if there's a way of trading that avoids this syndrome.

I did exactly the same thing: expecting it to go on up and thinking I was safe with a 10 point stop. Same dates and figures too. It took some furious day-trading to counter that, which I've since banned myself from doing as I don't get any 'real' work done.

I think the only system you can use to avoid this is called 'experience' (or possibly 'luck'... or both).

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With all this volatility you don't want to put your stops too short, as the price might touch them and then rocket up. This has happened to me. I bought at 503 in December with a stop at 493 which it touched for two seconds before rocketing up and I missed a good run. Very frustrating.

I'd love to know if there's a way of trading that avoids this syndrome.

Yes. GC Options.

But there are traps for the unwary here also.

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Why do you think that?

Last week it lost the momentum of the previous weeks, Just became choppy and unpredictable. I think a correction is on the cards, and unless something unexpected happens, I think it will come sooner rather than later.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

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      • down 5% +
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