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88Crash

Hpc'rs Need To Chill Out!

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Some of you guys are a bit too impatient and missing the obvious

A CRASH is not a crash until you look back

By definition that means you will have to wait a lot longer

You will also have to look at the bigger picture – not just hang on every piece of negative information that could support a crash i.e oil prices, Tokyo shares dropping, retail sales down last week etc,

It has taken several years to get to this absurd position and hopefully it will only take a few to get down to a (reasonably) fair price for property – BUT that is a couple of years away

In the last year by any definition – the market has slowed dramatically

During this year IMO prices will start to drop significantly – that is still not a crash

If that continues throughout 2007, then in 2008 we can say HPC started in 2004

This isn’t rocket science – in fact it’s the same sh*t – different day

Sadly in about 10 years property will boom again

We never learn and its ‘always different this time”

Edited by 88Crash

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Some of you guys are a bit too impatient and missing the obvious

A CRASH is not a crash until you look back

By definition that means you will have to wait a lot longer

You will also have to look at the bigger picture – not just hang on every piece of negative information that could support a crash i.e oil prices, Tokyo shares dropping, retail sales down last week etc,

It has taken several years to get to this absurd position and hopefully it will only take a few to get down to a (reasonably) fair price for property – BUT that is a couple of years away

In the last year by any definition – the market has slowed dramatically

During this year IMO prices will start to drop significantly – that is still not a crash

If that continues throughout 2007, then in 2008 we can say HPC started in 2004

This isn’t rocket science – in fact it’s the same sh*t – different day

Sadly in about 10 years property will boom again

We never learn and its ‘always different this time”

Agree with nearly all of that except I reckon the gap between each boom is getting greater. 20 years time would not surpise me for the next one :o

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Agree with nearly all of that except I reckon the gap between each boom is getting greater. 20 years time would not surpise me for the next one :o

I sincerely hope it is 20 years, but I doubt it

The last HPC became obvious to everybody by about 1991/92 and from memory Blair/Bown said no more housing booms in 1997

This current boom started in London/South East around 1997/98

Maybe the flow of infomation via internet and forums such as this, will gradually start to educate people, with the result that we don't follow the VI's, banks etc, quite so blindly in future

Only then will it be 20 years or maybe NEVER AGAIN

(Gosh, I starting to sound like a socialist!)

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Actually, long term we are positive, it only appears negative from a short term viewpoint. The world and the consumer/people will be better off if exuberant markets adjusted or corrected earlier rather than later!

Point is, the people here are mostly knowledgeable and interested (or have become interested) in both the bigger picture and minutiae of economics, markets and reportage. It informs us and is interesting. Its fun!

One day, "everyman" should have the knowledge and wisdom imparted on HPC.

Edited by Tempest

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I agree also!

Its going down but not as fast as people want.

TB

I guess if it crashed too quickly like a stock market crash, then everybody looses, because it would devastate the economy

Waiting a couple of years for those of you who just want to buy a home at a fair price is NOT fair, but then life rarely is

Even if property drops 30-50% the vast majority of UK homeowners will carry on with life as usual

The speculators that got in too late will get hit

Likewise the excessive MEW’ers who spent to much on cars and plasma’s

Sadly, there will be a few million people, that will be messed up for the next 10 years and all for the crime of buying a home at the wrong time (invariably younger generation)

That is sad and something that ‘macro economics’ tends to overlook

BTW does anyone on this forum think this housing boom just happened by chance?

Actually, long term we are positive, it only appears negative from a short term viewpoint. The world and the consumer/people will be better off if exuberant markets adjusted or corrected earlier rather than later!

Point is, the people here are mostly knowledgeable and interested (or have become interested) in both the bigger picture and minutiae of economics, markets and reportage. It informs us and is interesting. Its fun!

One day, "everyman" should have the knowledge and wisdom imparted on HPC.

Wish I'd had it 20 years ago, although in my defence the Internet didn't exist

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I am inclined to agree with the original poster.

While I remain bearish about the housing market, I do not think that we are likely to see a recognisable drop off in housing prices any time soon. Unspectacular growth is more likely.

Getting hung up over a small rise in unemployment, or a rise in oil prices seems such a waste of energy....

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I feel you miss the point of a forum personally. If we don't discuss every snippet of relevant news and analysis, what else are we gonna talk about for the next 2 to 3 years?

With respect, I'm not suggesting we don't discuss, I'm suggesting that a lot of people seem to be getting negative because the crash hasn't happened yet

I am fully aware that many already know this, but equally some are having doubts

Specifically my comments are aimed at people that are under pressure to buy and have certainly changed their tone over the last few months (probably some of the younger members)

If they give in now and buy an overpriced home, like a new 2 bed with tempting offers from the builder, they MAY be making a terrrible mistake

If my comments manage to sway just ONE person to hang on a bit longer, I'm happy to be called 'Condescending' by you

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The next HPC may be known as the "Gentle Crash" in contrast to the "Great Crash" of 1989-1995. Instead of stomach turning drops like all the other crashes it may be characterized by 3-5% falls over the course of the next 10-15 years as prices gradually come back into alignment with people's ability to pay them. Whatever happens, the market WILL correct--they always do.

Conclusion: as an investment vehicle houses are possibly the worst thing out there. BTL will continue to return negative income unless the BTL'er bought at the bottom of the market or without a mortgage.

ON the other hand, as no bubble in history has ever deflated gently we may still get gut wrenching drops....

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ON the other hand, as no bubble in history has ever deflated gently we may still get gut wrenching drops....

The next year wil tell - remember this current boom had already been going for at least a year before the majority of 'general public' realised

There was a private boom in London circa 1996/97

Repo Apartments in London were bought for 30K and sold for 50K within a few months (the same are now close to 200K)

Maybe there is a 'private HPC' happening already

Give it time

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There is a huge difference between the last vrash in the late 80s and this one: BTLs. Over the last decade hundreds of thousands have bought up 2-bed BTL flats. They are everywhere and when perople realise their rent doesn't cover the mortgage and the captial value is falling they will leave the market in droves. It is accepted that BTLs have propped up the market over the last few years - when they pull out the market will fall down. Therefore While I think prices will fall steadily there will also be a point where they drop much more rapidly in the BTL arena.

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Agree with nearly all of that except I reckon the gap between each boom is getting greater. 20 years time would not surpise me for the next one :o

I've often thought the same. I'm not sure this terminology is correct but when you consider the main graph on the front of the site I see the frequency decreasing and the wave length increasing. Or is that the other way round? In simple terms the waves are getting bigger.

I think this is connected to the relaxed lending criteria.

Edited by bandylegs

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There is a huge difference between the last vrash in the late 80s and this one: BTLs. Over the last decade hundreds of thousands have bought up 2-bed BTL flats. They are everywhere and when perople realise their rent doesn't cover the mortgage and the captial value is falling they will leave the market in droves. It is accepted that BTLs have propped up the market over the last few years - when they pull out the market will fall down. Therefore While I think prices will fall steadily there will also be a point where they drop much more rapidly in the BTL arena.

Correct! In the Great Crash (1989-96) I was able to just get out in time and sold an upmarket bungalow in Surrey. Nice bungalows were as rare as hens teeth back then and mine was the only one on a two-storey estate. BTLs are saturated and when all those thousands of properties find there way back onto the market they will be very cheap because supply will outpace demand by a huge margin. High quality homes in a good location will suffer the least--if you didn't buy at the top of the market that is.

BTW if you go on findaproperty.com you will see the level of saturation BTLs have reached in the commuter belt of London. There is a frightening amount for rent and for sale which belies the myth of a housing shortgage.

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I'd set up a poll on the site if I knew how:-

(1) is the glass half-full; or

(2) is the glass half-empty?

I reckon for most regulars on the site, it'd be half-empty... :ph34r:

Edited by newbie

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I'd set up a poll on the site if I knew how:-

(1) is the glass half-full; or

(2) is the glass half-empty?

I reckon for most regulars on the site, it'd be half-empty... :ph34r:

The glass is twice as big as it needs to be. This also applies to the price of the house in which the glass resides.

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There is a huge difference between the last vrash in the late 80s and this one: BTLs. Over the last decade hundreds of thousands have bought up 2-bed BTL flats. They are everywhere and when perople realise their rent doesn't cover the mortgage and the captial value is falling they will leave the market in droves. It is accepted that BTLs have propped up the market over the last few years - when they pull out the market will fall down. Therefore While I think prices will fall steadily there will also be a point where they drop much more rapidly in the BTL arena.

I agree and I’ve put in a few posts over the last year to that effect

Last bust 30,000 BTL’s, this time 500,000 BTL’s plus all the dodgy ones

On an anecdotal note, just had a call from family friends 10 minutes ago

They are renting from a BTL and have just found out their rental ‘home’ is just about to be repo’d

They have no rights and will have to move

They are in their twenties, both had decent managerial jobs, but because his wife quit work to have a baby they couldn’t afford to buy their own home (in Surrey)

His landlord has several BTL’s and if one is being repo’d,it doesn’t bode well for his property portfolio

Hopefully the end result will be more of these ‘landlords’ go bust pushing down the prices a bit quicker then last time

Short term there will be some innocent victims, like our friends, but in the long term if it results in them being able to buy their own home and raise a family, its worth it

Lastly what’s the cause of their misfortune?

a) They didn’t buy a home when they could have afforded it (aged 23 and only together for a few months)

B) They are now 27 and they decided to have a baby – should have bought a BTL instead!

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Both the same thing?, maybe frequency decreasing and amplitude increasing

Set me straight digger. The frequency is the horizontal and the amplitude vertical right?

What I mean is we seem to be going from small waves to bigger waves.

Edited by bandylegs

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Set me straight digger. The frequency (or wavelength) is the horizontal and the amplitude vertical right?

What I mean is we seem to be going from small waves to bigger waves.

Yep that's right.

I agree with you.

We will have to see how it all pans out over the next couple of years, no rush (although in the beginning I hoped it would move faster). :mellow:

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The people on here are potential home owners who dont blow there cash and work, thats the reason there on here.10 years ago doing the same job they do now they wouldnt have needed to come here at all, they would have gone down to the estate agents instead.

so no wonder their/we/me are a bit pissed off with it all and clutching at anything at all, and i find it real bad to have assholes like ttrtr come here and laugh in the face of our prediciment.

the bad luck of timing is the sad fact for us, we dont need people that had the good luck of timing to rub it in.

sad jerks every one, i hope they all go tits up

Edited by homeless

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so no wonder their/we/me are a bit pissed off with it all and clutching at anything at all, and i find it real bad to have assholes like ttrtr come here and laugh in the face of our prediciment.

the bad luck of timing is the sad fact for us, we dont need people that had the good luck of timing to rub it in.

sad jerks every one, i hope they all go tits up

I understand your point of view (It used to get me down as we wanted to trade up but I did not think the difference in price was worth it even though we can afford it and choose not to be ripped off).

I found this site after coming to the conclusion that the housing madness could not continue forever.

I have learnt allot from reading this site, there are many intelligent people that post on here, I have even made some money from some of the advice on here (I would not have considered gold or mining shares if it were not for DrBubb, bought in early last year).

But as you point out it is all about timing, I am sure that this will be in our favour again and due to the good financial advice to be had here then it should be possible to be in a very favourable position to take advantage of it.

Don't let them wind you up; their downfall will come in due coarse.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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