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Housing Supply Tight In Dublin - Iavi

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This was one of the news headlines on the radio this morning. There was a guy from IAVI on saying that prices "will be" higher still, this time next year.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0118/iavi.html

A Financial advisor was also on the radio earlier advising property investment in Ireland. The sole argument appeared to be that if you buy a property for rent , you get a 2% yield and 10% capital growth per annum - much better than leaving your money in a bank account. And they were advising Interest Only mortgages for investors. Not a mention of where interest rates will be in a year's time.

I despair.

How many young families, just starting out in life are going to find themselves below the poverty line in a few years time, thanks to the "advice" dispensed by cruel people like that?

I see civil unrest. :angry:

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This was one of the news headlines on the radio this morning. There was a guy from IAVI on saying that prices "will be" higher still, this time next year.

http://www.rte.ie/business/2006/0118/iavi.html

A Financial advisor was also on the radio earlier advising property investment in Ireland. The sole argument appeared to be that if you buy a property for rent , you get a 2% yield and 10% capital growth per annum - much better than leaving your money in a bank account. And they were advising Interest Only mortgages for investors. Not a mention of where interest rates will be in a year's time.

I despair.

How many young families, just starting out in life are going to find themselves below the poverty line in a few years time, thanks to the "advice" dispensed by cruel people like that?

I see civil unrest. :angry:

unfortunately sentiment remains hugely in favour of buying, at ANY cost in Dublin. Socially renting is one notch above homelessness. I see price rises in Dublin surprising on the upside this year, perhaps even yes 10%+. this will be ironically and specifically because ECB will raise rates x2 more times. Dont misunderstand me, Im a bear, prices are way beyond reason, but right now theres no economic rationality or perception of downside risk, its pure and total postive sentiment. Immigration flows are propping up rents and FTBs are still 'buying' = positive sentiment remains intact = no price plateaus/falls

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Much of the demand in Ireland seems to be from ‘investors’ looking for second (or more) properties. With capital growth likely to hit double figures again this year and the perception that SSIA money will underwrite the market punters fingers are twitching on the equity release trigger. The fact that the US economy is on the brink and foreign direct investment is tanking has no bearing on peoples decisions.

I’ve noticed that the bearish commentators (David Mc Williams, Shane Ross etc) have being quite of late, no surprise I suppose as any reference to a possible correction is meet with cries of derision. What I find amusing now is the obvious concern growing in the political and financial establishment; I bet they now wish that the media bears were a bit more vocal in their warnings.

With every week that passes the Irish economy becomes more dependent on the continuation of the bubble. Even a return to low single figure growth would result in a squeeze on consumer spending a contraction in the construction sector and a sharp rise in unemployment, with a consequent impact on rents as eastern Europeans leave for greener pastures.

As the politicians and bankers are so fond of using an aviation term (a soft landing) to describe their fairytale happy ending, I will explain my theory in similar avionic terms.

The Irish economic aircraft has a problem, in order to land safely it has to slow down, but this plane has a very high stall speed, so if it slows down it will stall and crash.

So the pilots and passengers are in a bind left circling the airport as the fuel runs low.

:ph34r:

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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