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Retail Activity In Severe Fall--latest Report

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4622056.stm

Consumers appear to be abandoning the High Street
Retail activity on the UK's High Streets fell "severely" last week, according to research group Footfall.
Its Retail FootFall Index for Monday, 9 January to Sunday, 15 January, was down 10.9% compared with the week before, and down 5.2% on the same week in 2005.

With unemployment hitting a record 2 year high and High Street retailers going into freefall it would appear that the two planks holding up HPI have just dissappeared.

These are HUGE numbers folks. It may be time to go to cash if you have too much out in the stockmarket.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4622056.stm

Consumers appear to be abandoning the High Street
Retail activity on the UK's High Streets fell "severely" last week, according to research group Footfall.
Its Retail FootFall Index for Monday, 9 January to Sunday, 15 January, was down 10.9% compared with the week before, and down 5.2% on the same week in 2005.

With unemployment hitting a record 2 year high and High Street retailers going into freefall it would appear that the two planks holding up HPI have just dissappeared.

These are HUGE numbers folks. It may be time to go to cash if you have too much out in the stockmarket.

I expect many are using online shopping.

Then canny folk are waiting for the (Feb) Spring Sales.

Well, that's what a Bull would say.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4622056.stm

Consumers appear to be abandoning the High Street
Retail activity on the UK's High Streets fell "severely" last week, according to research group Footfall.
Its Retail FootFall Index for Monday, 9 January to Sunday, 15 January, was down 10.9% compared with the week before, and down 5.2% on the same week in 2005.

With unemployment hitting a record 2 year high and High Street retailers going into freefall it would appear that the two planks holding up HPI have just dissappeared.

These are HUGE numbers folks. It may be time to go to cash if you have too much out in the stockmarket.

Well I think debt has been propping up the economy for a while. When football clubs and charities are offering credit cards, surely you realise something is very wrong. If things do grind to a halt the financial sector ought to be overhauled.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4622056.stm

Consumers appear to be abandoning the High Street
Retail activity on the UK's High Streets fell "severely" last week, according to research group Footfall.
Its Retail FootFall Index for Monday, 9 January to Sunday, 15 January, was down 10.9% compared with the week before, and down 5.2% on the same week in 2005.

With unemployment hitting a record 2 year high and High Street retailers going into freefall it would appear that the two planks holding up HPI have just dissappeared.

These are HUGE numbers folks. It may be time to go to cash if you have too much out in the stockmarket.

Just a many media reports suggest it was actually quite a good Xmas for retailers. Who is right?

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""Just a many media reports suggest it was actually quite a good Xmas for retailers. Who is right?""

several retailers did have a good christmas but they all set this against a bad time otherwise.

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We need to impose credit limits. 4 x income for house purchases if you have excellent credit. Credit card limits based on ability to pay as evidenced by salary level. Shylock IRs to be illegal and replaced with a formula referenced to the repo rate +. No tax breaks for second homes--end council house discounts for part-time occupancy. Capital gains if you buy and sell a house within 3 years unless it is for a job move or health issues. Regulation of the EA industry and standardized market reporting rules.

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Comparing these figures from week to week seems ridiculous. They're likely to be influenced by all sorts of irrelevant factors like the weather, school holidays etc etc.

Next we'll have the headline:

"Bumper Hour for the High Street!

Retailers recorded bumper sales between 2 and 3 o'clock yesterday. According to the Acme armpit index, this was the best 2-3 o'clock period recorded on a 17th January for over 5 years.

Jim Smegworth (35) of Dickbrains Electrical said ...."

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Comparing these figures from week to week seems ridiculous. They're likely to be influenced by all sorts of irrelevant factors like the weather, school holidays etc etc.

Next we'll have the headline:

"Bumper Hour for the High Street!

Retailers recorded bumper sales between 2 and 3 o'clock yesterday. According to the Acme armpit index, this was the best 2-3 o'clock period recorded on a 17th January for over 5 years.

Jim Smegworth (35) of Dickbrains Electrical said ...."

You have just provided some "non jobber" with a good idea to flog.

Anyway any large retailer with sense must do this.

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These are just numbers of people recorded in a few shopping malls across the country. It doesn't show how much they spent, which is more important!

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With unemployment hitting a record 2 year high and High Street retailers going into freefall it would appear that the two planks holding up HPI have just dissappeared.

Ah on the contrary Miles Shipside would point out that "this is a clear sign that people are saving all of their money to buy houses with rather than spending it on cr*p, it's a clear sign that momentum is building for renewed double digit growth in house prices". :D

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Anyway any large retailer with sense must do this.

Indeed they do, I used to work in retail management and even 10-15 years ago we had that level of detail.

I think this is the "pre christmas sales" chickens coming home to roost. It was obvious in their desperation to pull the punters in for christmas at least some of that spending would have been money people would otherwise spent in January.

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On a personal note - I saw some stuff for sale before Xmas and thought "I might buy that when it reduces a bit after Xmas".

Went back in the new year, same stuff is piled high, at exactly the same prices.

I still don't want it, and now I'm under no pressure to buy presents.

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We need to impose credit limits. 4 x income for house purchases if you have excellent credit. Credit card limits based on ability to pay as evidenced by salary level. Shylock IRs to be illegal and replaced with a formula referenced to the repo rate +. No tax breaks for second homes--end council house discounts for part-time occupancy. Capital gains if you buy and sell a house within 3 years unless it is for a job move or health issues. Regulation of the EA industry and standardized market reporting rules.

So, you're going to ensure that only people who have rich parents can afford the best property (parents are a lot more prepared to guarantee loans than to actually hand over cash, so buyers with rich parents will be able to get higher multiples of their own incomes by using their parents' incomes, or just by borrowing from their parents), and that poor people can't borrow money (small loans to poor people are very expensive to provide, and if you can't charge high APRs, they're not economic to provide).

What we need is not to interfere with the market, and if a bank wants to lend someone money, and the person wants to borrow it, to let them get on with it -- as long as each party is providing the other with enough accurate information to allow them to make an informed decision, which is where regulation does have an important part to play.

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On a personal note - I saw some stuff for sale before Xmas and thought "I might buy that when it reduces a bit after Xmas".

Went back in the new year, same stuff is piled high, at exactly the same prices.

I still don't want it, and now I'm under no pressure to buy presents.

I've been looking for a new printer. A laser, scanner etc "All in one" would probably do the trick.

I went to PC world at the end of last year, there were loads of boxes of printer's pilled up at the end's of aisle's and also in the middle of the aisle's, I thought "I'll wait until new year and get a bargain".

Went back to PC world about 2 weeks ago, the same number of big pile's of printers all over the place with reduced £20/£30.

Went back to PC World today, still the same glutt of printer's with reduced £20/£30 crossed out and another £10/£20 knocked off.

I think i'll go back at the end of the month and pick up an "All in one" Laser for about £60.

You can't tell me PC World has had a good Xmas/New Year.

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So, you're going to ensure that only people who have rich parents can afford the best property (parents are a lot more prepared to guarantee loans than to actually hand over cash, so buyers with rich parents will be able to get higher multiples of their own incomes by using their parents' incomes, or just by borrowing from their parents), and that poor people can't borrow money (small loans to poor people are very expensive to provide, and if you can't charge high APRs, they're not economic to provide).

What we need is not to interfere with the market, and if a bank wants to lend someone money, and the person wants to borrow it, to let them get on with it -- as long as each party is providing the other with enough accurate information to allow them to make an informed decision, which is where regulation does have an important part to play.

Ahem!

With property prices nearing 10x average earnings in some parts of the country it is indeed already only people with rich parents that will be able to buy property. Either though a gifted deposit/ loan or though inheritance.

As far as lending is concerned, an 'informed' decision might easily be a decision on the information that 'Kirsty says property always goes up', or 'just write your salary in that box - we won't check it'.

How do you define accurate information?

Edited by Bear Goggles

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So, you're going to ensure that only people who have rich parents can afford the best property (parents are a lot more prepared to guarantee loans than to actually hand over cash, so buyers with rich parents will be able to get higher multiples of their own incomes by using their parents' incomes, or just by borrowing from their parents), and that poor people can't borrow money (small loans to poor people are very expensive to provide, and if you can't charge high APRs, they're not economic to provide).

What we need is not to interfere with the market, and if a bank wants to lend someone money, and the person wants to borrow it, to let them get on with it -- as long as each party is providing the other with enough accurate information to allow them to make an informed decision, which is where regulation does have an important part to play.

Not sure how rich parents come in but....my idea is simply to put an end to reckless lending which is behind this housing bubble. If money is cheap things get expensive so no one wins except the lenders and EAs who get the commissions whedn the market is in a feeding frenzy. Same policy for everyone: 4 x income. That will cap house prices by making prices reflect salaries which helps everyone.

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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4622056.stm

Consumers appear to be abandoning the High Street
Retail activity on the UK's High Streets fell "severely" last week, according to research group Footfall.
Its Retail FootFall Index for Monday, 9 January to Sunday, 15 January, was down 10.9% compared with the week before, and down 5.2% on the same week in 2005.

With unemployment hitting a record 2 year high and High Street retailers going into freefall it would appear that the two planks holding up HPI have just dissappeared.

These are HUGE numbers folks. It may be time to go to cash if you have too much out in the stockmarket.

And just watch those IR's fall starting in Feb. Yep, get out of stocks and into bricks.

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If IR fall stocks will go up. But lower IR will not turn the market which is already headed toward correction. The circumstances that caused the market to slow and go into reverse are still there:

1. Houses are overpriced relative to income

2. IR are the highest in history relative to income and price paid--a drop of 1% will not change much

3. Unemployment trends are already in place and confidence in continuing HPI has gone

4. THe bottom feeders (FTBs)are priced out and cannot move the market as evidenced by growth of chains

5. SIPPS U-Turn has thrust an oversupply of BTLs onto the market

6. THere is no shortage of supply

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Not sure how rich parents come in but....my idea is simply to put an end to reckless lending which is behind this housing bubble. If money is cheap things get expensive so no one wins except the lenders and EAs who get the commissions whedn the market is in a feeding frenzy. Same policy for everyone: 4 x income. That will cap house prices by making prices reflect salaries which helps everyone.

But at current interest rates, people can relatively easily afford to borrow more than 4X salary (certainly a lot more easily than 3X at 15% interest rates), so you're giving a big advantage to people who can get round the policy and borrow more. Which they can do quite easily if they have parents from whom they can borrow more money on top of the mortgage, or who will allow some of their incomes to be used to guarantee a higher mortgage. Just let the market decide how much people can borrow.

If IR fall stocks will go up. But lower IR will not turn the market which is already headed toward correction. The circumstances that caused the market to slow and go into reverse are still there:

1. Houses are overpriced relative to income

2. IR are the highest in history relative to income and price paid--a drop of 1% will not change much

3. Unemployment trends are already in place and confidence in continuing HPI has gone

4. THe bottom feeders (FTBs)are priced out and cannot move the market as evidenced by growth of chains

5. SIPPS U-Turn has thrust an oversupply of BTLs onto the market

6. THere is no shortage of supply

1. is true, but there's no reason why house prices should be in a constant ratio to income. Look at the ratio of mortgage interest payments to income for a better ratio.

2. is simply untrue -- the highest interest rates in history compared with house prices were in the summer of 1989.

6. Of course there's a shortage of supply, there always has been and there always will be. To assess the pent-up demand for houses that is only choked off by high prices, you have to ask yourself the question: how many houses would people own if they cost £10 each? Until everyone has a London penthouse flat with river views, an eight bedroom country retreat in a few acres of grounds, and a holiday cottage in the Lake District or Cornwall, there's a shortage of supply.

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But at current interest rates, people can relatively easily afford to borrow more than 4X salary (certainly a lot more easily than 3X at 15% interest rates), so you're giving a big advantage to people who can get round the policy and borrow more. Which they can do quite easily if they have parents from whom they can borrow more money on top of the mortgage, or who will allow some of their incomes to be used to guarantee a higher mortgage. Just let the market decide how much people can borrow.

Until everyone has a London penthouse flat with river views, an eight bedroom country retreat in a few acres of grounds, and a holiday cottage in the Lake District or Cornwall, there's a shortage of supply.

Well that is definitely the language of a Vested Interest. You must be a top man in the Mortgage Lending Industry old chap. ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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