Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Smurf1976

House Price Crush - Aussies Losing Homes

Recommended Posts

Guest Bart of Darkness
Families worst affected are those that bought at the height of the property boom.

They believed that prices would never come down, tempting them to borrow more than they could really afford if circumstances changed.

And so it begins....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've been watching the Australian property mrket reasonably closely for the past 12 months - I have just been granted a migration visas to Oz & I will at some point be 'requiring' a family home, (probably in Melbourne if anyone has any views on this).

Obviously things are not looking too good for property values down under - and I don't wish to see people losing the shirt off their backs or anything like that, but how do people see things playing out, i.e. will it be a sudden crash, (like Hong Kong was in 1997/98), or will the property market just die a slow death?

All views deeply appreciated - before I go down there in a rush to buy something cos I think I'm getting a bargin.

Cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's a difficult one as to outright crash versus slow correction. So far it's been a slow correction but the underlying trends in unemployment, external debt, trade balance etc aren't looking favourable given that Australia ought to be absolutely booming given the high commodity prices. With the notable exception of oil, Australia exports huge volumes of numerous commodities.

If the commodity boom crashes then I have no doubt that Australia's economy is going with it and house prices would then probably crash. If the commodities boom continues or at least stabilises then a continuing slow correction may well happen.

If I were moving to Melbourne or any other major Oz city then I would rent given the ridiculously low yields on property at the moment. Then wait to see what happens before even thinking about buying.

Renting in an unfamiliar location is a good idea anyway IMO since it gives you a way to become more familiar with where you really want to live (what suburb) in the long term.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Personally I dont like Melbourne, however Sydney is a different story.

I would buy in Sydney in the future, but today the value of units are being eroded daily. Rental return is only viable by using negative gearing and that requires a good job paying good money.

Renting in Aus is the best option today, its cheaper and its more flexible as in Australia you will have to move to where the work is.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree that renting in Melbourne is incredibly good value and you should do that for a while first.

Sydney is an overpriced sh*thole IMO and has nothing going for it apart from the Harbour which no normal people can live anywhere near anyway. For a family, Melbourne suburbia offers a much better quality of life both financially and in terms of crime and family friendly facilities.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless you're looking for some upper end job in finance, law etc. then don't overlook Brisbane, Adelaide or Perth. All smaller than Syd/Melb and with a lot less general hassles with traffic etc and quite nice places too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hang on, this can't be right. According all to the press reports I have seen, Australia had a soft landing 12 months ago and is now safely parked in one of the hangers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sydney is gorgeous if you can live on the North Shore, if you live in the Suburbs or out with the Westies then forget it you may as well live in Milton Keynes.

Imagine getting up to this each morning for work!!!.

airmanly1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Unless you need those big polluted, unfriendly crapholes for work, I would look further afield.

I live in Geraldton, about 450 kms north of Perth...would never go back to the cities....ever.

We don't even need the blue filter on the camera lense to make the water look better. It is already turquoise...naturally. (notice the blue tinge to the Norfolk Island Pines in the photo above ;))

www.geraldtontourist.com.au

Edited by wayneL

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The article mentions a debt level of AUS $833 billion of which $714 billion is home loans.

Comparing this to the UK debt level, taking into account that UK is 3 times the size of australia, this would be equivalent of a UK debt level of £1.059 trillion (£907 billion home loans)

The latest figure I heard for the UK I think was around the £1.2 trillion mark and growing, ie higher than Aus. Of course there's other factors in play, but how much longer until we get a "housepricecrush" over here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sydney is gorgeous if you can live on the North Shore, if you live in the Suburbs or out with the Westies then forget it you may as well live in Milton Keynes.

Imagine getting up to this each morning for work!!!.

Yes, but how many families can afford to live on the North Shore? Most people are in the dire suburbs. Even for singles imo inner Melbourne is a more diverse and vibrant place to be that inner Sydney.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree inner Sydney and South now is not the place to be. You can pick up a reasonable unit in Manly on the Eastern Hill for around 450,000 Aud which is around 195k Sterling. Thats a two bed unit and taking London as a capital City Comparison its good value for money.

Lifestyle is superb!!!!.

Drawback you have to catch a ferry to work each day.......20 minutes

syd-h07v.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Going back to the question then - when will we get the same type of press reports in the UK?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I agree inner Sydney and South now is not the place to be. You can pick up a reasonable unit in Manly on the Eastern Hill for around 450,000 Aud which is around 195k Sterling. Thats a two bed unit and taking London as a capital City Comparison its good value for money.

Lifestyle is superb!!!!.

Drawback you have to catch a ferry to work each day.......20 minutes

Maybe so. Sydney's centre of population is now slightly west of Parramatta.

I had a mate who lived for a while at Collaroy one street back from Pittwater Road, about as Northern Beaches as you can get.

His ferry commute from Manly came after a 45-minute bus ride. Alternatively 75 minutes by bus/car to the city.

Mind you, the year he rented a unit actually on the Corso visiting was pretty cool.

Edited by ajh

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this *** will be slow to get going, it already is IMPO, but once it gets moving then the momentum will pick up considerably and that all this talk of 15 years of Japanese style declines will turn out to be nonsense. I think prices will fall very rapidly within a period of a few years and that the Internet will play a huge part in this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think this *** will be slow to get going, it already is IMPO, but once it gets moving then the momentum will pick up considerably and that all this talk of 15 years of Japanese style declines will turn out to be nonsense. I think prices will fall very rapidly within a period of a few years and that the Internet will play a huge part in this.

I think it will be one of those things where, even though it doesn't happen overnight, one by one people just realise that house prices have fallen. At some point large numbers will be reaching this conclusion around the same time. Once that occurs the selling really gets underway and prices should fall rather quickly for those willing to buy only from those genuinely selling.

It's a bit like how house prices rose for years and then all of a sudden the masses became aware of it and pushed the prices up to the peak. Usual course of a bull market, reverse for a bear market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah, those were the days. I used to live on the harbour with a panoramic view of the bridge, opera house and city skyline (McMahons).

Ok, it was a 1-bed flat, but it was £350/month and I was being paid in the UK. Rippa!

Anyway, Melbourne did actually seem to offer more than Syndey (except the weather - but for that go to Brisbane). What was the name of that area? St Kilda? Is that any good?

Edited by Nijo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ah, those were the days. I used to live on the harbour with a panoramic view of the bridge, opera house and city skyline (McMahons).

Ok, it was a 1-bed flat, but it was £350/month and I was being paid in the UK. Rippa!

Anyway, Melbourne did actually seem to offer more than Syndey (except the weather - but for that go to Brisbane). What was the name of that area? St Kilda? Is that any good?

St Kilda is one of the best parts in Melbourne: was gentrified ages ago, then got junkified for a few years, now it's trendy/fashionable whatever term fits. Short tram ride from the city but feels like a world away right on the water. Mostly apartment living; pretty expensive I think. All in all, Melbourne's much better than Sydney, apart from, as someone said, the weather. 37 tomorrow, then 21 the next day. Something like that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote

Anyway, Melbourne did actually seem to offer more than Syndey (except the weather - but for that go to Brisbane). What was the name of that area? St Kilda? Is that any good?

I recently lived on Fitzroy Street, St Kilda in 2 bed flat in a gorgeous art deco block for the equivalent of £450/month. Ten minutes walk to the beach (bay beach tho - no surfable waves), within minutes of some of the best restaurants and bars in Australia. Two minutes walk to the tram, 15 minutes tram ride into the central city, and across the street from Albert Park (only a bad thing when the Aus Grand Prix is on). By far the best place I have ever rented and I have lived in many rental properties in America (SF) and London. Melbourne is a place that just grows on you the longer you live there. It doesn't have anything like as stunning as the harbour, but it has a lot of things going for it that just take a little while to fully appreciate.

Back in London now, renting a decent similar-sized place Fulham, but at the equivilent of nearly three times the cost. Actually, it is not good for one's mental state to keep doing the money conversion...

Must say though, £450 seemed extremely cheap on my arrival in Aus but once I started earning Aussie dollars things seemed to make more sense. For most things what costs 1 pound here costs one dollar in Aus.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mmm... seems to me that moving to Australia and living in Melbourne is rather like moving to the UK and choosing to settle in Birmingham.

I'm getting mixed anecdotes from friends who have sold in Sydney: some have got over the asking price for a unit right next to those slums of the future on Moore Park Road, others have been less lucky: looking forward to Palm Beach houses coming back into my price bracket.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.