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When some say its the largest bubble market ever created they are not kidding are they? My earlier post today suggests the market in some States in the US has already popped.

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Economists regularly say that it is impossible to tell when you are in a bubble and can only know after the effect when a bubble has burst.

A bit worrying really on all sorts of fronts.

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Economists regularly say that it is impossible to tell when you are in a bubble and can only know after the effect when a bubble has burst.

A bit worrying really on all sorts of fronts.

IMO Economists are a waste of space. You only need to see the diversity of predictions on our front page.

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Guest magnoliawalls

Economists regularly say that it is impossible to tell when you are in a bubble and can only know after the effect when a bubble has burst.

A bit worrying really on all sorts of fronts.

Galbraith stated that the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable :)

I think this graph for the US market I just found on financial sense (click) scotches all those arguments about supply, population, immigration, etc. This housing bubble is a monetary phenomenon caused by excess liquidity, plain and simple. It has nothing to do with houses really.

We have high inflation that cannot show up in goods and services because of importing and outsourcing. But when it is asset price inflation it is not measured by the CPI and therefore does not really exist...

The housing bubble tells us more about the value of money than the value of property which has not changed.

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Galbraith stated that the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable :)

:D:D:D

When you boil all the graphs, formulas, projections and opinions down you always come out with one consistent economic truth:

What goes up must come down and the higher it rises the further it has to fall.

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I think this graph for the US market I just found on financial sense (click) scotches all those arguments about supply, population, immigration, etc. This housing bubble is a monetary phenomenon caused by excess liquidity, plain and simple. It has nothing to do with houses really.

Yikes. Maybe I should sell my U.S. house. :ph34r:

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I will have data to show population against house supply..

Soon.. I promise

I'd be surprised if you get a correlation between populationchanges/changing family units etc and house prices.

You might be better off looking at rentals versus population because in my view rentals are much closer to the real value of housing.

And remember there are always substitutes to buying.

It does surprise me how many contributors to this site confuse a demand for HOUSING (linked to the need for shelter) with demand for buying houses.

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The housing bubble tells us more about the value of money than the value of property which has not changed.

that's very very good indeed, very concisely put. :)

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I couldn't see the hyper-bubble in the graph.

Surely it shows prices about 10% over-valued when you compare the price against the cost of building?

(P.S. Evening Standard says London was up another 1% in December, with sales doubling. Where is this crash thingy?)

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Guest Bart of Darkness

Economists regularly say that it is impossible to tell when you are in a bubble and can only know after the effect when a bubble has burst.

More like no one will admit that there's a bubble until it's popped.

Then there's no end of 20/20 hindsight and Monday morning quarterbacking.

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I couldn't see the hyper-bubble in the graph.

Click mouse, look at red line, see baseline index at 100 on left, look at the peak of red line (185), bang head, repeat as necessary.

You confirm one eminent point, some pople deverse to lose their shirt.

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I couldn't see the hyper-bubble in the graph.

Surely it shows prices about 10% over-valued when you compare the price against the cost of building?

They are indicies, they do not have any direct monetary comparision to each other.

What they show is the rate of growth, HPs have rocketed whilst such things as build costs and popluation have grown much more slowly.

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Click mouse, look at red line, see baseline index at 100 on left, look at the peak of red line (185), bang head, repeat as necessary.

You confirm one eminent point, some pople deverse to lose their shirt.

Dude, they're just messing with your head. The red line is at the top, to make it look bigger. The scales

are all messed up (population goes up nearly x5 and yet slopes gently compared to house price). The figure shows that the price of houses vs build cost has gone from one to 185/161 compared to 1890 so house prices may be 11.5% overvalued.

Move along, there's nothing to see here...

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Dude, they're just messing with your head. The red line is at the top, to make it look bigger. The scales

are all messed up (population goes up nearly x5 and yet slopes gently compared to house price).

So population growth has exceeded 100% in the last half decade?

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Dude, they're just messing with your head. The red line is at the top, to make it look bigger. The scales

are all messed up (population goes up nearly x5 and yet slopes gently compared to house price). The figure shows that the price of houses vs build cost has gone from one to 185/161 compared to 1890 so house prices may be 11.5% overvalued.

Move along, there's nothing to see here...

You guys should not be looking at the US as a whole. Parts of the US are a huge bubble, while homes are still affordable in other areas.

Wanna feel confused? Or maybe you will feel smart after reading these 2 articals.

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?...0323/1083/BIZ12

http://news.rgj.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?...0351/1083/BIZ12

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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