MEtallic Report post Posted January 17, 2006 Has anyone considered the effect of an aging population on house prices? 15.7%, or 9.5 million people in the UK are in the 65+ age group. Presumably they account for about 8% of the housing stock (half male, half female and married). There are 21,660,000 occupied houses in England and Wales, so this means that over the next 10-15 years, we can expect 1,732,800 houses to be freed up as the owners die, enough to house nearly 4 million people assuming an average family per household. Surely then, supply will soon outstrip demand by a high percentage? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AteMoose Report post Posted January 17, 2006 over the past 30 years population has only gone up 10%, but housing stock has gone up 30%, and the average number of people living in a property has dropped... If there was a issue with housing stock more people would be living together/sharing.... Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
OnlyMe Report post Posted January 17, 2006 (edited) Peak spending power is apparently around the 45 year old bracket, peak earnings, children, housing, education etc etc to fund. The 34 year old FTB's will be so in hock they will either neither be able to house themselves in accommodation suitable for children or have the spare wonga to match anything like the current 45 year old crop. Pensions are in a state and the new joiners having to fully fund their own pensions unlike their forebears. Not only is the demographic tide going out, those left stranded on the shore are bare-arsed financially. Edited January 17, 2006 by OnlyMe Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CrashConnoisseur Report post Posted January 17, 2006 See 'Federal Reserve: The Baby Boom: Predictability In House Prices And Interest Rates.': http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/forum/ind...showtopic=21315 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mancghirl Report post Posted January 17, 2006 It seems so obvious, I am unable to see why the boomers cannot see it. Your house is 'worth ' a lot of money. You bought it for less. You then borrow on the strength of this and effectively sell your house back to yourself for radically more than you paid for it. Eventually you become old. You need to sell it to downsize or pay for care. You need a market of potential young buyers with sizeable deposits who are looking for a family home:- a) All the would be affluent under 35s are saddled with massive loans from university They hocked themselves to the max to buy a 1 bed flat and cannot afford your asking price c) There are a lot less of them buying then there are of you selling due to declining birthrate d) A large number have emigrated due to limited employment opportunities in their field/high house prices e) A large number have elected not to start families due to being unable to afford housing How then, do you intend to liquidate your asset? A market without new customers is unsustainable - declining FTB numbers=declining house prices. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
zorn Report post Posted January 17, 2006 15.7%, or 9.5 million people in the UK are in the 65+ age group. Presumably they account for about 8% of the housing stock (half male, half female and married). There are 21,660,000 occupied houses in England and Wales, so this means that over the next 10-15 years, we can expect 1,732,800 houses to be freed up as the owners die, enough to house nearly 4 million people assuming an average family per household. Surely then, supply will soon outstrip demand by a high percentage? Just consider all that inherited housing wealth, much of which will work its way back into the housing market. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
SarahBell Report post Posted January 17, 2006 They're not even going to freeze to death... £300m to help pensioners stay warm http://money.guardian.co.uk/news_/story/0,,1688325,00.html Hilary Osborne Tuesday January 17, 2006 Around half a million pensioners whose homes are without central heating will be able to claim financial help to have a system installed under plans outlined today by the chancellor, Gordon Brown. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
