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Realistbear

World's Biggest Hpi Bubble Just Burst

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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...-bn16sales.html

11:32 a.m. January 16, 2006
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County resale house prices tumbled last month by the
biggest number in 18 years
of record-keeping and contributed to the smallest year-to-year rise in overall prices in six years, DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.
The median resale price for existing single-family homes dropped $15,000 from November to December to stand at $550,000,
the largest month-to-month decline since DataQuick began keeping records in 1988
.

San Diego shares some similar characteristics with the UK:

Full employment (the best in the US)

Low IR

A healthy economy overall (California is the world's 6th largest economy)

Positive spinning EAs and VIs.

The crash begins in the West it seems?

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Interesting. The American Media is much more financially savvy than that of Europe. Sentiment toward the market should therefore turn more quickly too.

It will be generally ignored in the UK and Ireland. That is until Florida starts tumbling. ;)

I was in Florida last year. Real Estate agents were advertising "Investment Opportunities". Many were also flying the Union Jack - I guess they know their audience. :lol::lol::lol:

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Interesting. The American Media is much more financially savvy than that of Europe. Sentiment toward the market should therefore turn more quickly too.

It will be generally ignored in the UK and Ireland. That is until Florida starts tumbling. ;)

I was in Florida last year. Real Estate agents were advertising "Investment Opportunities". Many were also flying the Union Jack - I guess they know their audience. :lol::lol::lol:

Americans are masters at marketing. People who buy in FL will have some nasty surprises over the coming few decades as the changing water temperatures are ushering in longer and more violent Hurricane seasons. A couple more years of stiff offshore breezes and you will not be able to give away the plots where your house used to stand.

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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/busines...-bn16sales.html

11:32 a.m. January 16, 2006
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County resale house prices tumbled last month by the
biggest number in 18 years
of record-keeping and contributed to the smallest year-to-year rise in overall prices in six years, DataQuick Information Systems reported Monday.
The
median
resale price for existing single-family homes dropped $15,000 from November to December to stand at $550,000,
the largest month-to-month decline since DataQuick began keeping records in 1988
.

The crash begins in the West it seems?

Great. If Rightmove and the rest quoted the median instead of the mean, we would likely see much more realistic numbers in the UK too.

In the USA, Australia and NZ, I only ever see the median and mode reported, so why are things different in the UK?

This isn't just being pedantic - the point is that the mean asking price increases if the balance of the market shifts in favour of a greater proprtion of luxury properties for sale, and it can easily do this even if prices of invividual properties is falling. Any number of things can cause the mean to increase without prices rising at all. You need only a handful of top-end properties to be newly listed for the mean to increase and Rightmove can achieve this by simply adding more exclusive Estate Agents to its members. Alternatively, if the top-end of the market stalls, but cheap properties are withdrawn from sale, or are sold, again the mean asking price will increase, even to the point of masking real falls for most individual properties.

At the risk of patronising the educated, imagine 100 properties were for sale for 200K one month, none sold so they were all reduced to 190k the next month, but that during the next month, 1 property comes onto the market with an asking price of 1.2 million.

Last month - mean = 200 K

This month - mean = 200 K

By reporting the mean, instead of the median or the mode, we have managed to mask the fact that 99% of houses fell by

10%, just because one house came onto the market, quite possibly for 10% less than if it had come on a month sooner!

The mean is also much, much more susceptible to blunders, so I trawled Rightmove to search for these by searching for very expensive houses - I picked my old home town of Swansea figuring that they should be easy to spot, though I suspect anywhere would do. I found 3 absurd listings (yes, I know they are all absurd, but some are 10x more absurd than others) - (yet no examples of wildly undervalued misprints :blink: ).

1 :D

2 :D

3 :D

Rightmove claim that their statistics filter these out using a 3 standard deviation rejection rule, but can we be sure this is effective if they don't publish either the method or the raw data? If there are just a few blunders in one area, as here, the standard deviation may be too high to reject some or all of them - after all, they correctly list other 1million pound plus houses in this area.. Given that it is in their interest to let a few slip through, can we trust them?

Why don't they publish the raw data on the net? And why don''t the BBC insist ondoing their own analysis, before printing sensationalist conclusions about a single number on behalf of a VI when anybody with an ounce of nounce can see how flakey that number is.

As long as VI's quote the mean, this forum is left debating meaningless numbers and the public can be misled. The enormous spread of estimates of the mean between various agencies (approx 160-195K) should raise all kinds of alarm bells to those of you with a stats background. It is telling us that they can't reliably measure this quantity, let alone the week on week changes that form the headlines in the unquestioning British Press.

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Great. If Rightmove and the rest quoted the median instead of the mean, we would likely see much more realistic numbers in the UK too.

In the USA, Australia and NZ, I only ever see the median and mode reported, so why are things different in the UK?

This isn't just being pedantic - the point is that the mean asking price increases if the balance of the market shifts in favour of a greater proprtion of luxury properties for sale, and it can easily do this even if prices of invividual properties is falling. Any number of things can cause the mean to increase without prices rising at all. You need only a handful of top-end properties to be newly listed for the mean to increase and Rightmove can achieve this by simply adding more exclusive Estate Agents to its members. Alternatively, if the top-end of the market stalls, but cheap properties are withdrawn from sale, or are sold, again the mean asking price will increase, even to the point of masking real falls for most individual properties.

At the risk of patronising the educated, imagine 100 properties were for sale for 200K one month, none sold so they were all reduced to 190k the next month, but that during the next month, 1 property comes onto the market with an asking price of 1.2 million.

Last month - mean = 200 K

This month - mean = 200 K

By reporting the mean, instead of the median or the mode, we have managed to mask the fact that 99% of houses fell by

10%, just because one house came onto the market, quite possibly for 10% less than if it had come on a month sooner!

The mean is also much, much more susceptible to blunders, so I trawled Rightmove to search for these by searching for very expensive houses - I picked my old home town of Swansea figuring that they should be easy to spot, though I suspect anywhere would do. I found 3 absurd listings (yes, I know they are all absurd, but some are 10x more absurd than others) - (yet no examples of wildly undervalued misprints :blink: ).

1 :D

2 :D

3 :D

Rightmove claim that their statistics filter these out using a 3 standard deviation rejection rule, but can we be sure this is effective if they don't publish either the method or the raw data? If there are just a few blunders in one area, as here, the standard deviation may be too high to reject some or all of them - after all, they correctly list other 1million pound plus houses in this area.. Given that it is in their interest to let a few slip through, can we trust them?

Why don't they publish the raw data on the net? And why don''t the BBC insist ondoing their own analysis, before printing sensationalist conclusions about a single number on behalf of a VI when anybody with an ounce of nounce can see how flakey that number is.

As long as VI's quote the mean, this forum is left debating meaningless numbers and the public can be misled. The enormous spread of estimates of the mean between various agencies (approx 160-195K) should raise all kinds of alarm bells to those of you with a stats background. It is telling us that they can't reliably measure this quantity, let alone the week on week changes that form the headlines in the unquestioning British Press.

Come to Bimingham and you can easy beat those three with one three bed:-

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/viewdetails-547...pa_n=1&tr_t=buy - three bed (check the price for yourself)

I wonder how many more "mistakes" can be found, as I'm sure these "mistakes" are factored in any mean distributions that are published.

BTW this is my first post - cool website, I have learnt alot from this site. Especially, weeding out trumped up values and stats.

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  • 302 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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