Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Bonkers

My Hpc Trigger

Recommended Posts

My thought on the trigger, plenty to go round on HPC, my thoery enjoy!

Looking at the economy and the people in it I feel house prices have been fueled by easy money(100%) morgages.(Amoung other things)

I belive its not when the people stop and think "Hey wheres all this free money comming from?" because I doubt they will come to that realization unless the have taken the route of bankrupcy, and only then come to realize something was wrong.

I feel that unless some global trigger shocks the economy first, I feel that domestically that it will be the banks that decide when the crash comes.

My reason for this is that when more and more people cannot afford to make repayments due the size of their morgages the banks will step back and say well that was fun while it lasted, after all why would a bank want to keep lending when the repayments arnt guareented by the masses?

So in short when the banks feel enough is enough no more profit to be made will be a decideing factor unless IR's beat them to it. But even then they will have seen that comming after all banks are in the business to know when enough is enough.

It may seem like a shot in the dark but news on banks removing BTL morgages on new builds is a start, and when we see credit card companies removing 0% interest free options will be a turning point.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My thought on the trigger, plenty to go round on HPC, my thoery enjoy!

Looking at the economy and the people in it I feel house prices have been fueled by easy money(100%) morgages.(Amoung other things)

I belive its not when the people stop and think "Hey wheres all this free money comming from?" because I doubt they will come to that realization unless the have taken the route of bankrupcy, and only then come to realize something was wrong.

I feel that unless some global trigger shocks the economy first, I feel that domestically that it will be the banks that decide when the crash comes.

My reason for this is that when more and more people cannot afford to make repayments due the size of their morgages the banks will step back and say well that was fun while it lasted, after all why would a bank want to keep lending when the repayments arnt guareented by the masses?

So in short when the banks feel enough is enough no more profit to be made will be a decideing factor unless IR's beat them to it. But even then they will have seen that comming after all banks are in the business to know when enough is enough.

It may seem like a shot in the dark but news on banks removing BTL morgages on new builds is a start, and when we see credit card companies removing 0% interest free options will be a turning point.

Some interesting points there, but I dont feel there will be 1 factor. I think its going to be a number of things.

The strongest thing is SENTIMENT. When sentiment drops, which I feel it is starting to do, then prices tend to be forced down. The rate as which they fall is another matter.

When the banks see that houses are falling - they will tighten up the lending criteria as their risk is higher. The other option is they put a Higher Lending Charge on a mortgage. This is happening NOW!!! to a lot of people, this is an indication that they realise there is a RISK!

CC companies will stop 0% etc because of Card Switching and nothing else. And will not really make that much difference other than people will HAVE to pay of the debt. This means LESS money in their pocket, which means less money spend in the high street which then leads onto economic trouble.

It's going to be nasty but its going to happen - the trigger?

TIME!

Edited by teddyboy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure there is going to be a trigger at all, its just going to happen.

FTB's have been priced out of the market.

BTL's are starting to realise that it makes no sense.

The lack of demand from above will hit prices, when they start to fall it will snowball with BTL's and the heavily mortgaged selling up to avoid losses/negative equity.

As I say, I don't think there needs to be an external shock to set off the crash, people just need to realise their mistake

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My thought on the trigger, plenty to go round on HPC, my thoery enjoy!

Looking at the economy and the people in it I feel house prices have been fueled by easy money(100%) morgages.(Amoung other things)

I belive its not when the people stop and think "Hey wheres all this free money comming from?" because I doubt they will come to that realization unless the have taken the route of bankrupcy, and only then come to realize something was wrong.

I feel that unless some global trigger shocks the economy first, I feel that domestically that it will be the banks that decide when the crash comes.

My reason for this is that when more and more people cannot afford to make repayments due the size of their morgages the banks will step back and say well that was fun while it lasted, after all why would a bank want to keep lending when the repayments arnt guareented by the masses?

So in short when the banks feel enough is enough no more profit to be made will be a decideing factor unless IR's beat them to it. But even then they will have seen that comming after all banks are in the business to know when enough is enough.

It may seem like a shot in the dark but news on banks removing BTL morgages on new builds is a start, and when we see credit card companies removing 0% interest free options will be a turning point.

Correct! you win a prize, I'll PM it to you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.