Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Time Will Tell

Ftb Awareness Campaign : How Could All Ftb's Help Crash The Market ?

Recommended Posts

Hi

I have been following this forum for about 3 months or so and this is my first post.

I do believe that a correction will occur, but when & under what economic conditions

is with the gods.

It seems that theres alot of FTB's about, all waiting for the next downturn to

occur. As a collective, we the FTB are hugh with the ability to bring the market to

it's knees..but only if we wish to do so.

The only way to seriously bring market prices down and keep them down is to educate

the majority of FTB's what is really going on out there.

Let me run this past you guys & gals, just suppose for a minute that :-

1. A collective of pro-active individuals formed a group called "House Price Awareness".

2. The main goal of the group was to provide a well informed "local" analysis of the market,

by distributing "hard facts" campaign literature within regionalised areas.

4. The campaign literature would inform readers of local house prices now & the price at which

the property is really worth (50% less of the current end 2005 land registry price).

3. The group would be governed by a collective of leaders local to a particular area.

(eg, Hampshire may have Southampton,Winchester,Eastleigh group leaders etc.).

4. All work would be voluntary. The cost associated with design/printing & distributing

literature would be absorbed by the whole group. The whole idea is to be pro-active

about getting prices down & keeping them at a stable rate of infation.

5. A forum based web site (smilar to HPC) would provide public & member information, etc, etc..

..

So there you have it. Now what would be the reality..

"Jodie, 32 joined House Price Awareness mid 2006 after becoming disillusioned about the lack of

realistic and affordable houses within Eastleigh Hampshire. Within a month of becoming a

member she had allready attended several meetings in Southampton & next week had volunteered

to do a campaign leaflet drop. She really believed that the £15 she had donated to the printing

of 10000 leaflets was worth while. (5000 Flyer size leaflets is around £120 to print)."

"Tim, 26 had been saving a deposit for around 3 years. He had no interest in the economy, only football.

On his return from work, he opened the door to find the usual junk mail, which he immediatly threw in

the bin. Something caught his eye:

'Stop, don't do it.....'

As he read on, he was actually being absorbed by what seemed to be hope. He knew house prices were

horrific, but all his mates who had bought told him he'd missed the train & he would be stuck in a

grotty 1 bed place renting till his OAP Housing benefit kicked in.."

"George, 56 owned a modest 3 bedroom detached in Shirley,Southampton. The house had been up for sale

at £170K for about 18 months. Upon reading his morning post, you can imagine the shock of bring

notified his lovely abode was only worth £85K..."

Is this madness, or is it really achievable ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Positive action.....good plan.

Someone has to counteract the endless spin.

We could also urge FTB's in areas of oversupply to contact their letting agents/landlords to get a rent reduction due to lower priced rentals elsewhere.

Engender panic of void periods for overstretched amateur BTLs.

They then try to sell up and flood the local market, having slashed their price to offload for a quick sale. Prices spiral downwards and local property market collapses.

I'll take Manchester......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A crash can only happen when people least expect it.

Sounds like a good idea to form a group though. But in reality it might be counter productive. Its like "they" (the sellers) know a collective enemy exists - if you know the enemy then you know how to defeat it. I.e abstain from lowering prices. If we are anonymous that keeps them guessing. Then we can pounce.

Welcome aboard btw

Edited by trev

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hrm, are you a bureaucrat? I mean that in a complementary way.

However, I think you ignore the fundamental logic of the market, lots of FTB are simply priced out so they have no choice in the matter, it's doubtful many could afford mortgage payments even with the sort of exotic financing now being promoted and eargerly pushed by the press.

As for persuading people not to buy, well once the market turns the herd mentality makes that a certainty, we can already see that from the lowest sales volumes in 30 years and the length of time properties now sit on the market. Investors get scared and look elsewhere, money is now going into shares and the media is now pushing that idea as people can see one outpeforming the other, again the herd mentality ensures that people don't want to be 'left out'.

Edited by BuyingBear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In reality the following I assume would happen...

Jodie, would be £15 out of pocket further edged out of the market.

Tim, would throw the leaflet away.

George being of that age would take the time to browse the leafet and dismiss it for some scam, still beliveing in the fact his house was truley worth £170K and MEW it for a new shiny car.

In a perfect world would be a nice outcome, but I know of 2 single FTB's that have brought and I dont belive for one moment the bricks and mortar are worth the amount they paid for. I did show one of them HPC website and they just looked at it for a mere minute and shrugged it off without a word as if there wasnt anything to be learnt or informative.

Ignorance is bliss?

P.s. On a positive note this site is/are those leafets except people have to find it, instead of it being handed to them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been following this forum for about 3 months or so and this is my first post. I do believe that a correction will occur, but when & under what economic conditions is with the gods. [Time Will Tell]

This particular correction started in mid-2004 -- the sharp fall in transaction volume was a clear and unambiguous signal. Today's market is very different to what it was two years ago -- it's now a buyers market with turnover constrained by seller reservation pricing.

For various technical reasons the published house price 'indices' overstate the true market, probably by between 5 and 10%. Some of these distortions will soon start to drop out of the year-on-year figures.

Expect to see a slow but variable decline in prices extending over many years. This is why I prefer to use terms such as 'correction' or 'disorderly readjustment' rather than "crash".

A good proxy for confidence in the value of housing and for expectations of future price rises is the amount of money home owners are willing to borrow against the increased value of their home -- Mortgage Equity Withdrawal. Take a look at the last graph in this set which shows 'MEW as a Percentage of Post-Tax Income':

http://www.graphicinvestor.com/econo/UK/MO...S/Mortgages.htm

For those looking for a "crash", there it is -- a dramatic 50% drop inside a year. Expect to see a rebound of around a third of that fall -- a so-called 'dead-cat bounce' -- before the downward trajectory resumes.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I went into an Estate Agent in Thetford, Norfolk today and saw a young 20 year old looking at overpriced housing and being sucked in.

When he left the Agency I excused myself and ran to him in the street to let him know about this site and the possibility of losing £30K this year if he went through with this. The local builders said really in a 'I believe you manner' they want to know as well, and the normal reaction would be not in the past sonny.

You see my conscience got the better of me and I could not do the work of an Estate Agent.

So Campaigns it is and there's one person we wish to help and it's the Home buyer who visits those Estate Agents.

:ph34r:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I went into an Estate Agent in Thetford, Norfolk today and saw a young 20 year old looking at overpriced housing and being sucked in.

When he left the Agency I excused myself and ran to him in the street to let him know about this site and the possibility of losing £30K this year if he went through with this. The local builders said really in a 'I believe you manner' they want to know as well, and the normal reaction would be not in the past sonny.

You see my conscience got the better of me and I could not do the work of an Estate Agent.

So Campaigns it is and there's one person we wish to help and it's the Home buyer who visits those Estate Agents.

:ph34r:

mm,

you could try my approach, which is to stick an a4 sign on the EA window. last time I printed out the FTB help page which had the warnings and links useful to an FTB who might be browsing. Best time to do this is on a saturday night at the start of a bank holiday weekend when the EA's are shut for a couple of days. Use blu-tak so there's no damage and stick it undercover (on the door is best) in case it rains.

All those people that come for a browse in the window over the weekend will hopefully read it and it might make them think. might be useful to add something to make them check nethouseprices etc.. (there are still people who don't know you can do that!)

Of course, the EA will whip it off when he comes in to work on the tuesday, so stake out the premises and watch the steam come out of his ears when he sees it :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

mm,

you could try my approach, which is to stick an a4 sign on the EA window. last time I printed out the FTB help page which had the warnings and links useful to an FTB who might be browsing. Best time to do this is on a saturday night at the start of a bank holiday weekend when the EA's are shut for a couple of days. Use blu-tak so there's no damage and stick it undercover (on the door is best) in case it rains.

All those people that come for a browse in the window over the weekend will hopefully read it and it might make them think. might be useful to add something to make them check nethouseprices etc.. (there are still people who don't know you can do that!)

Of course, the EA will whip it off when he comes in to work on the tuesday, so stake out the premises and watch the steam come out of his ears when he sees it :D

You could also try sending them dog turd in a nicely wrapped parcel. This won't make a crash any more likely but do it any way just because.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Didn't such a campaign bear fruit a number of years ago when car buyers went on strike forcing the government to end the UK rip-off and bring prices in alignment with the EU?

The UK is known for its effective boycotts and social causes. This sounds like a possibility. The Daily Telegraph will be happy to sponsor no doubt.

Edited by Realistbear

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A collective of pro-active individuals formed a group called "House Price Awareness".

I think 'The People's Front of House Prices' is a better title. Shall we take a vote on it? ;)

This site seems to be getting increasingly weird.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think 'The People's Front of House Prices' is a better title. Shall we take a vote on it? ;)

This site seems to be getting increasingly weird.

To be fair this type of idea has been suggested before, someone suggested a march on Downing street :D IMHO these inaction groups never work, doomed concept I think. One witty sage on here came up with the marching slogan "What do we want?, a 3 bed semi detached at the reasonable multiples my parents paid!, When do we want it? Now!" (or at least when I`ve managed to save up my 10K deposit....)

Here`s a thing, is the pen mightier than the sword? There are very few bearish articles that receive any exposure. Often swamped by the "house price inflation is a good thing" (yawn) pieces, there are only a handful of sites that attempt to tell it like it is without killing itself stone dead by alientating advertisers and sponsors alike.

Are you an FTB and want your voice heard then get writing.... put up or shut up..;)

http://forum.firstrung.co.uk/index.php?showtopic=33

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out the FTB beware leaflet on the frount page, many people distributed these last spring, stood outside estate agents etc etc.... I found leaving them on trains was very productive. All the document needs is updating with the latest graphs...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Check out the FTB beware leaflet on the frount page, many people distributed these last spring, stood outside estate agents etc etc.... I found leaving them on trains was very productive. All the document needs is updating with the latest graphs...

What about slipping the Evening Standard guy at Waterloo/Kings Cross/London Bridge/Euston £20 or more and handing him a pile of photocopied HPC leaflets to insert in to the paper… they slip in leaflets anyway.

Also place a box of them next to your local early morning metro stand.

Some will get thrown away but some will be read, this is expected.

Randomly leaving one or two on a train during rush hour is a good idea…

Make sure its after the cleaners have been through the train.

edit: This is a lot simpler than forming an action group.. which could be done in the future.

This site is enough of an action group.

If everyone did their bit in their area it will increase the awarness of this site.

I'll do my bit now. No need to wait for a group leader.

Edited by coolaftershave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well, thankyou for the feedback. A few points worth noting..

>>I'll take Manchester......

Thanks MancGhirl

>>It`s neither, just naive enthusiasm

Yes, it is enthusiatic, but I can see you have no enthusiam for doing anything,

so by nature nor does anyone else in your world.

Don't get me wrong, I respect your opinion, but don't tar us all with the same brush.

>>A crash can only happen when people least expect it.

Can you explain this a little further.?

>>As for persuading people not to buy, well once the market turns the herd mentality makes that a certainty

The farmer now has other intentions. He does now not lead his herd to the best grazing..

I do believe what makes it different this time around is the amount of spin and lies that VIs will

go to. This was never to the degree back in the early 90's. Its astonishing the lengths that

the press/media/news will go to, but whats worse is that it seems TO BE WORKING.!!

We now have to face the fact that a vast amount of property is seen as stock, of which the

media tycoons have VI's. A dop may occur of 10% to 15%, but I don't believe we will never

get true bargains, as the spin will never stop.

In my opinion, over the last 40 years different economic events have corrected the housing market.

In each case, the state of the economy has never been the same.

What we are seeing now is still a relatively healthy economy with lowish unemployment. We are not in recession and may

circumvent it if the government are clever enough. I don't dispute there will be hardship for

the next 5 years as personal credit is cleaned up, but this is my opinion.

>>you could try my approach, which is to stick an a4 sign on the EA window..

Yes, I completely agree. Targetting the mass FTB's port of calls.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I do believe what makes it different this time around is the amount of spin and lies that VIs will

go to. This was never to the degree back in the early 90's. Its astonishing the lengths that

the press/media/news will go to, but whats worse is that it seems TO BE WORKING.!!

Two things.

First the front page of hpc.co.uk has news articles from the early 90s and I don't see any difference between the spin in those and the spin in articles today.

Secondly, it doesn't matter whether the spin works to a certain extent because for this to continue the housing market either has to draw in more FTBs or more BTL investors at the bottom end of the market.

I believe that FTBs have dropped to the lowest proportion of the market since records began monitoring this and BTL investors will find it increasingly difficult to find banks willing to allow them to stretch their property portfolios further. So the spin is not effective in drawing these people in at the moment. Well, OK, a handful of fools with more money than sense will always buy into the market at the top but there is nothing you can do to stop that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi

I have been following this forum for about 3 months or so and this is my first post.

I do believe that a correction will occur, but when & under what economic conditions

is with the gods.

It seems that theres alot of FTB's about, all waiting for the next downturn to

occur. As a collective, we the FTB are hugh with the ability to bring the market to

it's knees..but only if we wish to do so.

The only way to seriously bring market prices down and keep them down is to educate

the majority of FTB's what is really going on out there.

Let me run this past you guys & gals, just suppose for a minute that :-

1. A collective of pro-active individuals formed a group called "House Price Awareness".

2. The main goal of the group was to provide a well informed "local" analysis of the market,

by distributing "hard facts" campaign literature within regionalised areas.

4. The campaign literature would inform readers of local house prices now & the price at which

the property is really worth (50% less of the current end 2005 land registry price).

3. The group would be governed by a collective of leaders local to a particular area.

(eg, Hampshire may have Southampton,Winchester,Eastleigh group leaders etc.).

4. All work would be voluntary. The cost associated with design/printing & distributing

literature would be absorbed by the whole group. The whole idea is to be pro-active

about getting prices down & keeping them at a stable rate of infation.

5. A forum based web site (smilar to HPC) would provide public & member information, etc, etc..

..

So there you have it. Now what would be the reality..

"Jodie, 32 joined House Price Awareness mid 2006 after becoming disillusioned about the lack of

realistic and affordable houses within Eastleigh Hampshire. Within a month of becoming a

member she had allready attended several meetings in Southampton & next week had volunteered

to do a campaign leaflet drop. She really believed that the £15 she had donated to the printing

of 10000 leaflets was worth while. (5000 Flyer size leaflets is around £120 to print)."

"Tim, 26 had been saving a deposit for around 3 years. He had no interest in the economy, only football.

On his return from work, he opened the door to find the usual junk mail, which he immediatly threw in

the bin. Something caught his eye:

'Stop, don't do it.....'

As he read on, he was actually being absorbed by what seemed to be hope. He knew house prices were

horrific, but all his mates who had bought told him he'd missed the train & he would be stuck in a

grotty 1 bed place renting till his OAP Housing benefit kicked in.."

"George, 56 owned a modest 3 bedroom detached in Shirley,Southampton. The house had been up for sale

at £170K for about 18 months. Upon reading his morning post, you can imagine the shock of bring

notified his lovely abode was only worth £85K..."

Is this madness, or is it really achievable ?

Great idea - call your website slash house prices and jobs by 50% - because that is what you will achieve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest consa

This may sound harsh, we need ftb's to buy at lowered prices to cause HPI to go down at a noticeable rate and we need ftb numbers to increase.

If we have no ftb's there will be no crash as the odd high end property selling will prop things up nicely.

Take a look at Australia, 3 months ago they reported an increase in ftb's and now they report declines in house prices increasing - see the correlation.

So come on you FTB's get buying :lol:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Let me run this past you guys & gals, just suppose for a minute that :-

1. A collective of pro-active individuals formed a group called "House Price Awareness".

Is this madness, or is it really achievable ?

Praiseworthy enough, but this website is achieving most of what you seek merely by its presence, and does so enormously more efficiently than regional teams as you describe. I do think it is a good idea though to shove leaflets around if they get to places where they will be seen. The problem is that unless you stand outside particular EA's and hand out leaflets to passers by, and do so outside thousands of EA's, I doubt whether the impact would be any more than this forum.

VP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.