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Speedboat attack on Nigeria rig

"The latest attack helped put upward pressure on oil prices, with markets already worried about the nuclear standoff involving Iran, the world's fourth largest crude oil exporter.

In London on Monday morning, the price for a barrel of Brent crude had risen by 19 cents to $62.45.

In two attacks last week militants ruptured a major pipeline feeding an export terminal and kidnapped four foreign workers from another Shell oil rig in the region. "

UN powers debate Iran escalation

"The US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany want to discuss the next steps in the escalating diplomatic stand-off, including the possibility of sanctions.

Iran denies it plans to develop nuclear weapons but also says it will not be intimidated by international pressure.

It has warned the threat of sanctions could result in higher oil prices.

Iran says only diplomacy, not threats, will defuse the crisis."

The price of crude is at a three month high, a few dollars more and it reaches the high at the time of Katrina. The upward pressure is most certainly on this week.

This is critical as high oil prices drive the cost of most everything upwards. It has a double effect on industry as costs rises and workers, suffering from increased fuel bills, demand pay rises.

This leads to higher inflation and the Bank of England knows that. Higher inflation means higher interest rates. Just exactly what we are looking for to drive house prices downward.

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Unless something actually happens to stop the oil supply then oil will stay at about the $60 mark which is the same as last year – so no inflation there then

I think it is more likely that interest rates will be reduced this year (that’s what the experts say)

The inflation cpi index has come down the last two months and is nearing the 2% mark – giving room for interest rates to be reduced

Right move shows that sellers are more confidant by putting up there asking prices – and I would expect next 2 month they will rise even more (+ 0.8% a month in my opinion)

Have a look through their pages in the last two weeks and you can see how many has had offers put on them all ready

So what you are saying is – we need to hope for something to happen to oil for a crash!

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Guest magnoliawalls

Unless something actually happens to stop the oil supply then oil will stay at about the $60 mark which is the same as last year – so no inflation there then

How long does it take for the increased oil price to feed through to inflation? I would have thought that it would take some time for higher oil product costs to be reflected in airline tickets and finished products on shelves as contracts are renegotiated and inventory is drawn down.

It has previously been argued on this forum that the increased oil prices could be deflationary (FreeTrader?), I think because people have less money for discretionary expenditure.

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How long does it take for the increased oil price to feed through to inflation? I would have thought that it would take some time for higher oil product costs to be reflected in airline tickets and finished products on shelves as contracts are renegotiated and inventory is drawn down.

It has previously been argued on this forum that the increased oil prices could be deflationary (FreeTrader?), I think because people have less money for discretionary expenditure.

We just got our latest leccy bill. 20% up per unit. Tell me that's not going to affect businesses.

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Guest magnoliawalls

We just got our latest leccy bill. 20% up per unit. Tell me that's not going to affect businesses.

Ouch.

Is that the first time that higher gas and oil prices have been reflected in your leccy bill?

If you have an energy intensive business - will you be able to pass the increase on to your customers or will it hit your bottom line?

I suppose if the increased costs can generally be passed on it is inflationary and if not it is deflationary... Can anyone reccomend some reading that would give me a background on that?

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Ouch.

Is that the first time that higher gas and oil prices have been reflected in your leccy bill?

If you have an energy intensive business - will you be able to pass the increase on to your customers or will it hit your bottom line?

I suppose if the increased costs can generally be passed on it is inflationary and if not it is deflationary... Can anyone reccomend some reading that would give me a background on that?

Ah, sorry, I'm a home consumer, not a business. But I can't imagine their costs are that different.

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Guest magnoliawalls

Ah, sorry, I'm a home consumer, not a business. But I can't imagine their costs are that different.

I misunderstood :unsure:

Still, I think it raises an interesting point...

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If you have an energy intensive business - will you be able to pass the increase on to your customers or will it hit your bottom line?

Depends, the gas price has really stung some companies, they can't raise output prices because our gas is still 50% more than Europe and they have to compete against them, be it with one hand tied behind their back.

Companies like Ineos Chlor and Terra Nitrogen which have massive plants are in virtual shutdown.

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Unless something actually happens to stop the oil supply then oil will stay at about the $60 mark which is the same as last year – so no inflation there then

I think it is more likely that interest rates will be reduced this year (that’s what the experts say)

The inflation cpi index has come down the last two months and is nearing the 2% mark – giving room for interest rates to be reduced

Right move shows that sellers are more confidant by putting up there asking prices – and I would expect next 2 month they will rise even more (+ 0.8% a month in my opinion)

Have a look through their pages in the last two weeks and you can see how many has had offers put on them all ready

So what you are saying is – we need to hope for something to happen to oil for a crash!

I don't agree

Oil is traded as a commodity and traders speculate on it like many other commodities. Traders believe the price is going to go up because of Nigeria and Iran, so the price goes up even before there is a problem with the supply. 12 months ago it was about $45, today it is about $63, and the pound is weaker now than a year ago so there is definitely inflation there.

Sentiment on interest rates changes on a weekly basis. Yes some experts are predicting a cut but the financial markets disagree and are currently expecting no change for the foreseeable future.

Yes CPI has come down from 2.5% in Oct to 2.1% in Dec but we were told in December that the underlying reason for this was the fall in petrol prices back down from the post Katrina peak. Petrol prices are on the rise again around here.

Watching my corner of the market on Rightmove I have seen a few properties that were taken off last autumn reappear in January at lower prices and sell quickly. Also some significant recent reductions on properties that have been on for ages. Hardly anything new has appeared yet.

Yes I think we will need something significant to happen for there to be a crash, otherwise it's stagnation. Sanctions against Iran and Oil heading up above $70 could just be what it takes.

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This article has a lot to say on the subject

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/16012006/323/dolla...ainst-euro.html

The dollar rebounded from heavy losses late last week, while the pound weakened as benign output price data suggested the door could still be open to further British interest rate cuts.

Elsewhere, sterling continued to fall after weaker-than-expected British factory gate inflation data. The figures came despite a record annual rise in input prices, suggesting that competitive pressures were preventing British manufacturers from passing the increased costs along to the customers

"From an inflation perspective these are reassuring numbers, If manufacturers can't raise their prices when input cost inflation is running at an all-time high at over 17 percent, when can they?," commented Ross Walker at RBOS.

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The latest attack helped to put upward pressure on oil prices, with markets already worried about the nuclear standoff involving Iran, the world's fourth-largest crude oil exporter

A nuclear standoff with Iran? Look at the media manipulation, even in an article not specifically about the the planned assault on Iran.

A nuclear standoff was seen the Cold War, with two super powers pointing vast quantities of long-range nuclear weaponry at one another. But here's the beeb trying to use emotive cold war terminology to stoke up a picture of some major nuclear power on the rise that we're currently having a 'stand off' with.

Iran doesn't have any nuclear weapons, and the only concievable reason it could have for wanting them is that Israel it point them at Iran and the US is constantly trying to lie their way to another Iraq. Most likely it wants lots of power to fuel its sinister, Islamo-nazi plans to do things like, er, have successful things like car makers like Khodro or SAIPA (which were both briefly in the running to take over Rover).

So they have a leader you gained power largely thanks to anti-US feeling stoked up by Iraq who makes extreme statements. Sadly, extreme inhumane statements are mainstream in the middle east, Palestinians are often 'vermin', or 'cockroaches', that should be 'crushed' according to leading Israeli politicians.

Keep your eyes peeled for more 'leaked intelligence' nonsense in the press like Saddam's supposed procurement of uranium from Nigeria, which was of course not true. It will come thicker and faster over the next few months.

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@Surrey cash buyer

Something to add to your argument...

India & China Oil Interests

Russia & Ukraine

No comment from me as the Oil situation is open-ended due to status as a needed essential commodity(although that says it all) and that unless someone finds more reserves(supply) or better refining techniques iam sure the price will either steady out or slowly rise.

Edit:

I couldnt help myself :D

some interesting data that I would agree affects the price of oil and on some level affects the inflationary prices that we see now. Note the 19 month period disruption in Iraq.

Oil Disruptions

Another war would trigger it, oil at $80-90 a barrel?. May set things in motion alot quicker.

Edited by Bonkers

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This article has a lot to say on the subject

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/16012006/323/dolla...ainst-euro.html

"From an inflation perspective these are reassuring numbers, If manufacturers can't raise their prices when input cost inflation is running at an all-time high at over 17 percent, when can they?," commented Ross Walker at RBOS.

So down the pan they'll ultimately go. Some no doubt helped by that RBOS when they worry about their loan book.

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Guest magnoliawalls

And it gets worse

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/1e3b2470-874a-11d...00779e2340.html

Oil higher on concerns over Iran and Nigeria

By Chris Flood

Published: January 17 2006 12:19 | Last updated: January 17 2006 12:19

nigeria oil explosionCrude oil prices resumed their upward march as concerns over Nigeria and Iran continued to occupy traders. Gold maintained its hold on recent elevated levels with traders assessing how precious metals markets bullion could react to another move up in energy prices. Base metals edged lower levels as dealers awaited reaction from the resumption of trading in New York which was closed for the Martin Luther King holiday on Monday.

ADVERTISEMENT

Worries over potential disruptions to supply due to the escalation in violence in Nigeria and continued concerns over Iran’s nuclear ambitions combined to push oil prices sharply higher.

US crude futures surged high in electronic trading with Nymex February West Texas Intermediate Brent increasing $1.31 higher at $65.223 while IPE February Brent added 64 cents at $64.03 a barre

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Don't just watch teh oil price on its own, the CRB index is flirting with its highs, if it breaks out then lieklihood is everything gets dragged up. Investors are losing faith and patience with fiat money, first money went into the housing housing bubble, now there are real concerns over capital preservation. In a world full of banks printing money like theor is no tomorrow to extend growth regardless of the consequences then this is possibly the last safe haven, depstie much of the movements appearing speculative in themselves.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/?s=NYBOT_CR&v=d6

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Well I thought Russia's intervention by offering to supply Power Station grade Uranium to Iran would diffuse the situation and we would see the oil price fall today. Not the case though. According to the BBC chart Brent Crude is up $1.76 in a day and has reached $64.54.

BBC Brent Crude

News updates from the BBC today:

Powers disagree over Iran crisis

Iran fears stir commodity prices

So keep monitoring this situation. 2% CPI may be rapidly on the way back up.

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Those Iranians are nutters. They gonna take great pleasure in undermining the 'great satan' America. Why do you think they want to trade in Euros and not the Dollar?

Pakistan for years actively developed a nuclear bomb. There was sanctions, but that was about it. America couldn't giev a rats **** about a 3rd world country trying to play with the big boys. The only difference is that Iran is a major oil supplier and will upset the USA apple cart once they start trading in Euros only.

The Iranians are threatening to cut the supply of oil if any sanctions are imposed. Watch the price rocket.

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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